投资者须警惕股票回购返潮

    每个聪明的投资者都知道应该以低买高卖为目标，那么为什么上市公司管理者会丢弃这个概念呢？

    正如研究及投资信息机构Behind the Numbers分析师威尔•贝克尔写给客户的新报告所示，股票回购眼下正呈上升趋势，而且管理者往往是在本公司股票的市场价值处于高点，而不是低点的时候进行回购。一年来，标普500指数（S&P 500）屡创新高，在这个过程中就出现了这样的情况。

    贝克尔收集的数据显示，2013年第四季度，标普500指数成分股公司的股票回购总规模比上年同期增长了28.5%，达到1260亿美元。他在报告中写道：“虽然这个幅度只比2013年第三季度上升了1.7%，但按12个月静态值计算，截至2013年12月31日的这12个月是金融危机以来这些公司在回购方面最活跃的阶段。”

    贝克尔的报告还提到了下面这组数字：

    • 在截至2013年9月份的12个月里，86%的标普500指数成分股公司都回购了股票

    • 目前，在标普500指数成分股公司中，回购股票的公司比分红的公司多

    • 管理层回购股票往往发生在本公司股票处于高估状态，而不是价格偏低的时候。贝克尔写道：“我们只需要回头看看2006和2007年的大牛市就会发现，当时上市公司用于回购股票和分红的资金之比超过2比1。然而，到了2009年中期，也就是人们普遍认为股价处于低谷的时候，这个比例却变成了1比2。”

    支持回购股票的人经常说，这样做能帮助公司和投资者减轻税收负担。举例来说，一家公司可以借款回购股票，并抵扣债务利息。同时，一些投资者更希望自己的投资通过股票回购来实现升值，而不是分红，原因是分红时他们必须立即交税，但在未抛售所持股票却实现获利的情况下却不用交税。

    还有人说，回购股票是公司发展过程中自然而然的步骤。行业滑坡的时后，在这些行业中展开竞争的公司没有什么好的资本投资途径，但又必须想办法把利润返还给股东，而股票回购就是一种有效措施。它既可以让陷入困境的公司缩小规模，又能让股东和管理层一直感到满意。

    然而，那些所在行业处于蓬勃发展状态的公司，比如制药商，又该怎么解释呢？随着富裕国家的人口老龄化，它们难道不是越来越赚钱吗？贝克尔在这份报告中提到，制药企业辉瑞（Pfizer）就是这样的公司之一，它们几乎没有什么好的借口来回购这么多的股票。近年来，随着两大最畅销药物——立普妥（Lipitor）和伟哥（Viagra）的专利到期，辉瑞受到了沉重打击。用贝克尔的话来说就是，这家公司一直在“迫不及待地”通过削减成本、收购和调整研发项目来弥补收入的下降。

    Every smart investors knows you should aim to buy low and sell high, so why is the concept lost on managers of public companies?

    As Will Becker, analyst at Behind the Numbers, shows in a new report to clients on the trend of increased share buybacks, when company management buys back its own stock, it tends to do it when market valuations are high, not low. And that's exactly what's happened over the past year as the S&P 500 repeatedly reached new heights.

    According to data assembled by Becker, S&P 500 companies increased the total dollar amount of share buybacks they engaged in by 28.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2013, to $126 billion. "While this represents a sequential increase of just 1.7% from 3Q13, S&P 500 companies have been more active over the trailing twelve months ended 12/31/13 than in any period since the financial crisis," he writes.

    A few more stats from Becker's report:

    • Eighty-six percent of the companies listed in the S&P 500 bought back shares in the 12 months ended September 2013.

    • More companies in the S&P 500 today buy back shares than pay dividends

    • Instead of buying back shares when stocks are cheap, management tends to buy its own shares when they are overvalued. Writes Becker, "One need only to look back to the 2006 and 2007 market heyday when companies spent more than $2 on buybacks for every $1 they spent on dividends. However, by mid-2009 when stocks prices were in the proverbial gutter, buybacks shrank to just 50 cents for every dollar of dividends."

    Defenders of share buyback schemes often point to the fact that a buyback can help companies and investors reduce their tax liabilities. For instance, a company can borrow money to repurchase shares and deduct the interest paid on debt. At the same time, some investors would rather their investments appreciate through share buybacks than receive a dividend because they must immediately pay taxes on dividends but not gains on stock they haven't sold.

    Others argue that share repurchases should be a natural step in a company's lifecycle. Firms competing in declining industries with few good capital investment options must find a way to return profits to their shareholders, and share buybacks are an effective way to wind down a struggling company in a way that keeps shareholders and executives happy.

    But what about companies operating in arguably thriving industries, like pharmaceuticals, that will only grow more profitable as the population within wealthy nations ages? In his report, Becker fingers pharma company Pfizer (PFE) as one such firm with few good excuses for buying back so many of its shares. Pfizer has been hit hard by the expiration of patents on two of its best-selling drugs, Lipitor and Viagra, in recent years, and it has been, according to Becker, "scrambling" to replace that revenue with cost cutting, acquisitions, and restructuring of its R&D efforts.