耶伦透露美国经济复苏隐忧

    上周三上午，美联储（Federal Reserve）主席珍妮特•耶伦在国会听证会上大打安全牌，目的是尽量避免自己的言语对正在上扬的股市产生不利影响。

    但在事先准备的发言稿和随后的问答环节中，耶伦指出了美国经济存在的一些问题，后者最终可能引起投资者的高度关注。

    3月份首次召开新闻发布会以来，耶伦已经有了很大的提高。在那次发布会上，耶伦对下属精心准备的隐晦语句进行了量化处理，这是个重大失误。这次，耶伦完全照本宣科，而且拒绝对利率政策或整体经济发表任何个人评论。有些参议员想套耶伦的话，让她按自己的想法来量化充分就业水平，或者让她预测利率什么时候会上升，但耶伦都没有上当。

    周三耶伦走的显然是保险路线。不过，她还是设法对当前经济的复苏力度提出了一些“顾虑”。其中之一是新兴市场“更为紧张的地缘政治局势”。这很可能是指最近俄罗斯和西方国家在乌克兰前途问题上的对峙，但耶伦没有做出详细解释。

    美联储也许控制不了普京，但可以控制利率。尽管周三耶伦明确指出，美联储不会很快调整低利率政策，但她确实提到，这项政策对经济的刺激效果已经受到了质疑。

    耶伦在发言中指出，最近房地产的复苏势头开始逐渐减弱，实际情况可能证明房地产的“复苏比目前预期的缓慢，反弹速度不会恢复到以前的水平”。她说，房地产市场的情况需要“密切观察”。对美联储来说，这句话的意思是，“我们对此感到担心”。

    耶伦有理由担心这些问题，因为这种情况似乎是在给美联储的低利率政策泼冷水。眼下，利率仍然接近历史最低水平，人们应该争相申请按揭贷款，但按揭保险水平却处于历史低点。另外，银行仍然在放贷——但人们对冒风险的行为就是不感冒。

    楼市陷入停滞的理由成千上万。房价也许上涨得过高过快，超过了购房者的收入。毕竟，工资增速仍然平缓，所以现在很多人都不急于买房也情有可原。

    有鉴于此，美联储似乎是在对市场说，它没办法完全掌控楼市复苏。当然，超低利率会促使一些人买房，但如果资产价格上升，甚至遥不可及，利率就起不了什么作用。

    美联储的低利率政策并不仅仅是为了提振楼市，它的另一个目的是鼓励投资。虽然这听起来好像很高尚，但效果并不完全遂人意。实际上，耶伦表示，这项政策促使投资者“去追逐收益率”，造成部分投资者“提高负债率，承担了更多的久期风险或信贷风险”。

    耶伦指出，“低评级公司债市场”需求上升，在这些市场中，“银团杠杆贷款的数量和高收益（垃圾）债券发行量迅速上升。”她承认，这种局面导致“利差不断缩小，承销标准一再放宽。”

    这两种趋势都有麻烦，如果失控就可能对经济产生深远的不利影响。在这方面，耶伦似乎有一点儿为自己找借口的嫌疑。她指出，尽管美联储的政策造成可疑债务大幅度增长，“但目前看来，增长速度依然适中——特别是在一线银行和寿险公司。”

    也就是说，一点儿问题也没有，对吧？也其实并不完全是这样。

    耶伦虽然相信垃圾债券市场“截至目前”尚未失控，但这并不意味着它会永远保持这种状态。耶伦在发言中承认了这个问题，她这样做的目的似乎是在警告华尔街，从现在开始，美联储将非常密切地注视垃圾债券和杠杆贷款市场。

    2013年，在美国发行的高收益公司债为3223亿美元，接近历史最高水平。由于需求极大，“无风险”国债和垃圾债券之间的收益率差异，也就是二者的利差，已经跌至有史以来的最低点。

    这股垃圾债券热还没有出现任何退烧的迹象。金融信息供应商S&P Capital IQ提供的数据显示，2014年前四个月，垃圾债券发行量为1140亿美元，和上年同期相当。

    同时，有风险的杠杆贷款和抵押贷款也越来越受欢迎。随着需求上升，这些产品的质量不断下降。穆迪（Moody’s）经分析发现，2012年4月份以来，美国新增抵押贷款的信贷质量“不断恶化”，原因是“B3”级贷款所占的比重增大。“B3”比垃圾债券低六个等级，是一种超级次贷。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen played it mostly safe in her appearance before Congress Wednesday morning, attempting to minimize any negative impact her testimony could have on a strengthening stock market.

    But in her prepared remarks and in the questions that followed, Yellen pointed out a few trouble spots in the economy that could eventually be of great concern to investors.

    Yellen has come a long way since her first press conference in March. Back then, she committed the grave sin of quantifying one of the carefully constructed -- and cryptic -- statements prepared for her by her staff. But on Wednesday, Yellen stuck to the script, refusing to give any personal views on interest rate policy or the economy in general. Senators tried to bait her into quantifying her views on what constitutes full employment or when she thinks interest rates will rise, but she didn't budge.

    While Yellen clearly played it safe on Wednesday, she did manage to reveal a few "concerns" regarding the strength of the ongoing economic recovery. One of those dealt with "heightened geopolitical tensions" in the emerging markets. This was most likely a reference to the recent troubles between Russia and the West over the fate of Ukraine -- though she didn't give any specifics.

    The Fed may not be able to control Vladimir Putin, but it can control interest rates. While Yellen made it clear on Wednesday that the Fed's low interest rate policy wouldn't be changing anytime soon, she did allude to concerns about its effectiveness in stimulating the economy.

    Yellen noted in her testimony that the recent recovery in housing had flattened out and that it could prove "more protracted than currently expected rather than resuming its earlier pace of recovery." She said the housing situation would require "close observation," which is Fed-speak for, "We're worried about this."

    The worries are justified as it seems to throw some cold water on the Fed's low interest rate policy. With rates still near historic lows, people should be running to get a mortgage, but mortgage issuance is at a historic low. Oh, and the banks are lending -- people just aren't interested in taking the plunge.

    There are tons of reasons for the stall in the housing market. Prices may have gone up too fast, too high, overshooting buyer incomes. After all, wage growth remains flat, so it stands to reason that many people aren't keen on buying a house right now.

    As such, the Fed seems to be telling the markets that it doesn't hold all the cards when it comes to the housing recovery. Sure, super-low rates can motivate some people to buy, but if asset prices are inflated or out of reach, then interest rates are irrelevant.

    The Fed's low interest rate policy isn't just about propping up the housing market -- it is also about encouraging investment. While that sounds like a noble endeavor, it comes with its own consequences. Indeed, Yellen noted that the policy forces investors to "reach for yield," leading some to take on "increased leverage, duration risk, or credit risk."

    Yellen noted the uptick in demand in the "lower-rated corporate debt markets, where issuance of syndicated leveraged loans and high-yield [junk] bonds has continued to expand briskly." As a result, she acknowledged that "spreads have continued to narrow, and underwriting standards have loosened further."

    Those are both troubling developments, which could have a profoundly negative impact on the economy if they get out of hand. Here, Yellen seemed to get a bit defensive. She noted that even though there had been a massive expansion in shady debt as a result of Fed policy, "these increases appear modest to date -- particularly at the largest banks and life insurers."

    So, no problem here, right? Well, not exactly.

    While Yellen believes the junk bond market hasn't gotten out of hand "to date," that doesn't mean it will stay that way forever. By simply acknowledging this issue in her testimony, Yellen seems to be putting Wall Street on notice that the Fed will be watching the junk and leveraged loan markets very closely from now on.

    A near-record $322.3 billion worth of high-yield corporate debt was issued in the U.S. in 2013. Demand was so great that spreads -- the difference in yield between "risk free" treasuries and junk -- fell to all-time lows.

    This junk bond mania isn't showing any sign of letting up. In the first four months of 2014, $114 billion worth of junk debt was issued to investors, which is on par with what was issued during the same period last year, according to S&P Capital IQ.

    Meanwhile, there has also been an uptick in demand for risky leveraged loans andcollateralized loan obligations. As demand has increased for these products, quality has decreased. An analysis conducted by Moody's found that credit quality in new U.S. CLO transactions has "deteriorated" since April 2012 due to an increase in the proportion of B3 rated loans. B3 is six notches below junk, making it super-subprime.