泰国经济还经不经得起折腾

    上周三，英拉•西那瓦被解除了泰国总理职务。泰国宪法法院（Constitutional Court）裁决，英拉2011年对一位公职人员的调动行为属滥用职权，并因此解除了她的总理职务。

    雪上加霜的是，泰国反贪污委员会(National Anti-Corruption Court)唯恐英拉的政治前途尚存一线生机，于周四指控被解职的英拉在全国大米补贴项目中存在渎职行为，同时建议启动弹劾程序。结果，英拉可能面临惩罚，五年内禁止参政，甚至还要受到刑事指控。

    虽然泰国局势的发展充满了戏剧性，但关注泰国局势的人肯定不会感到吃惊。数月来，反政府示威者一直盘踞在街头，要求英拉政府下台。（今年2月份，他们曾有机会通过投票迫使英拉下台，但反对者抵制选举，因为他们知道，自己根本没有获胜的机会。）

    泰国的法院一直是精英阶层的地盘，众所周知，他们一直都在针对英拉所在的政党。对于2011年的人事调动问题，早已有两家低等法院做出过类似的裁决。宪法法院的裁定只是带来了一场许多人期待已久的“司法政变”，为下一阶段的激烈政治冲突打下基础而已。从英拉的哥哥他信执政以来，泰国一直未能摆脱政治冲突。（他信是在2006年被军事政变赶下台的上届泰国领导人。）

    意外吗？当然不。但会不会给泰国经济带来麻烦？当然会，而且影响会越来越严重。

    去年年末，曼谷的示威和街头暴力又一次愈演愈烈之际，笔者曾撰文探讨泰国的经济恢复能力（以及为什么说政治风波不会伤害泰国经济这个问题）。虽然经历过流血冲突、商业区关闭和政变，但作为仅次于印尼的东南亚第二大经济体，泰国经济在近几年一直保持着发展势头，几乎没有出现过低迷的局面。

    外国公司，尤其是汽车和电子产品制造商，如丰田汽车（Toyota）、福特（Ford）和希捷（Seagate）等，继续在泰国投资兴建大型制造工厂。游客们源源不断地来到泰国的海滩、山脉和政治中心曼谷。据世界旅游业理事会（World Travel & Tourism Council）统计，2013年，旅游业已经占泰国GDP的9%。电影《宿醉2》（Hangover II ）按原计划在泰国首都曼谷拍摄，万事达卡公司（MasterCard）甚至将曼谷评为2013年世界热门旅游目的地之一。

    但是，有迹象表明，“泰国制造”还是可能无法继续抵御政治不确定性的冲击。由于近期制造业、出口和消费者信心下滑，泰国经济已经变得非常脆弱。

    英拉被解职后，穆迪（Moody）宣布泰国为“负信用。而且，自从去年12月份以来，它一直在不断下调对泰国2014年的GDP增长预期。”

    瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）认为泰国在第三季度成立“正常运行的政府”的预期不确定，因此将其4.5%的GDP增长速度修改为2%。美国银行（Bank of America）预测“泰国将处于无政府状态，GDP增长速度为1.1%。”

    事实上，没有人相信泰国政局能够恢复正常，而且在英拉被解职后，外界担心泰国局势反而会进一步恶化。

    到目前为止，英拉政府的大部分部门仍在保持运转——英拉的职位由副总理尼瓦探隆接替。尼瓦探隆曾是英拉哥哥的商业亲信之一。很显然，反政府势力不能接受这样的结果。反对者们上周五再次涌上曼谷街头，宣布对当权者发动“最后一击”，而这样的“最后一击”已经不是第一次了。

    英拉的支持者也在行动，抗议法院的裁定。虽然抗议活动的领导者们呼吁克制，采取和平示威，但支持政府的“红衫军”已经在各省集结，还焚烧了宪法法院成员的棺材模型。

    Last Wednesday, Yingluck Shinawatra lost her job as Prime Minister in Thailand. She was removed by the country's Constitutional Court, which ruled she had abused power in 2011 when she transferred a civil servant to a different post.

    On Thursday, lest the prospects for Yingluck's political future not be clear, Thailand's National Anti-Corruption Court separately indicted and recommended impeachment proceedings against the ousted Prime Minister for her role in a national rice subsidy program. As a result, Yingluck may face up to a five-year ban from politics and criminal charges.

    Dramatic as these developments may seem, for those who follow Thai politics none of this is shocking. For months, anti-government protestors have been baying in the streets for Yingluck's government to be gone. (When they had a chance to vote her out in February, they boycotted the election because they had no chance of winning it.)

    Thailand's courts, the realm of the country's elites, are notoriously stacked against Yingluck's party, and two lower courts had already made similar rulings about the 2011 personnel transfer. The Constitutional Court's verdict brought the "judicial coup" many had been expecting and simply sets the stage for the next chapter of grinding political conflict that has gripped Thailand ever since Yingluck's brother Thaksin was in power. (Thaksin was the last of Thai leaders to be ousted the old-school way, by military coup in 2006.)

    Surprising, no. But troubling for Thailand's economy? Increasingly, yes.

    Late last year as protests and street violence ramped up in Bangkok for the umpteenth time, I wrote about Thailand's record of economic resilience (and why this wave was unlikely to harm the economy). Through bloodshed, business district shutdowns, and coups the Thai economy -- the second-largest in Southeast Asia behind Indonesia -- has soldiered on in recent years, suffering barely a dent.

    Foreign companies, particularly automotive and electronics makers like Toyota (TM), Ford (F), and Seagate (STX) have continued to invest in major manufacturing plants in the country. Tourists, lifeblood in a country that drew 9% of GDP from the industry in 2013, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, have continued to flock to Thailand's beaches, mountains, and that political hot zone: Bangkok. The filming of Hangover II in the capital city went on as planned, and MasterCard even named Bangkok the top global destination in 2013.

    Still, there are signs that "Teflon Thailand" -- which is already in a fragile place due to recent slumps in manufacturing, exports, and consumer confidence -- may not be able to shake the political uncertainty much longer.

    Moody's responded to Yingluck's ouster by declaring Thailand "credit-negative, and GDP growth forecasts for 2014 have been in free fall since December.

    Credit Suisse has revised its 4.5% GDP growth rate down 2%, conditioned on the iffy prospect that Thailand has a "functioning government" by the third quarter. Bank of America (BAC) forecasts "no government and 1.1% GDP growth."

    Indeed, there's not much faith Thailand can get its political house in order, and after Yingluck's ouster, there's genuine concern the situation has gotten far more combustible.

    For now, much of Yingluck's government is still in place -- she has simply been replaced by a deputy prime minister and one of her brother's former business cronies, Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan -- a situation that is hardly more tenable to the anti-government movement. Protesters returned to Bangkok's streets on Friday, claiming to make, not for the first time, "their final push" against the powers that be.

    Yingluck's supporters have also mobilized to protest the court's decision. While leaders in the protest movement have called for restrained and peaceful demonstrations, "red-shirt" supporters of the government have been rallying in the provinces, burning the mock coffins of Constitutional Court members.