如果拉尔夫•劳伦公司没有了拉尔夫

    上周五，美国零售及时装设计公司拉尔夫•劳伦（Ralph Lauren）公布了第四季度业绩。虽然平淡的前景造成公司股价下跌，但它的业绩依然好于华尔街预期。如果投资者在消化业绩数据时能和拉尔夫•劳伦（本人，而不是这家公司）待上五分钟，他们就会向这位首席执行官提出三个关键问题。

    这些问题有：

关于授权经营

    拉尔夫•劳伦公司在过去40年中经历了几个为期十年的大周期，现在正要进入一个新的周期。有些周期起伏不定，有些则完成得很完美。但最成功的莫过于重新掌控各类品牌和产品的设计与销售。最有利的周期（远远超过其他周期）刚刚结束。虽然有些人不这么认为，但在我们看来这个周期已经毫无疑问地结束了。

    最强劲的周期是公司收回内容控制权（而非对外授权）的时候。例如，手提包业务的规模原本应该达到几十亿美元，如果被许可人的销售额只有1亿美元，公司就会收回授权。或者琼斯服装集团（Jones Apparel Group）的利润率达到了28%，拉尔夫•劳伦却只能获得前者7%的利润，它也会收回这个价值4亿美元的品牌。还有很多这样的例子。但从PVH/ Warnaco公司收回Chaps品牌之后，拉尔夫•劳伦已经没有规模较大的授权可以收回了。

    这一点很重要，因为收购这些授权是我们在零售行业见到的增值能力最强的活动，而且这不只是因为拉尔夫•劳伦的收购成本通常为零。重新获得内容控制权后，我们发现这家公司经营性资产的净回报率从13%升至26%，从而使拉尔夫•劳伦成为这个零售细分市场中回报率最高的零售商之一。

    问题：拉尔夫•劳伦正要进入一个新的周期，必须投入大量资金来实现增长。我们认为机遇是存在的，但要考虑到实际的资本成本。从数学角度而言，这些新举措的回报率有没有希望超过10年来的高增长机遇为拉尔夫•劳伦带来的回报率？如果不能，我们对财务回报率应该有怎样的预期？如果回报率下降，估值倍数就很可能不会上升。

关于继任计划

    标普500指数（S&P 500）的成分股公司中，只有七位首席执行官的年龄达到或超过了74岁，而拉尔夫•劳伦就是其中之一。有趣的是，随着这家公司长期以来的二把手罗杰•法拉（一直是公司增长的关键人物）今年进入“假退休”状态，人们或许会认为，74岁的首席执行官劳伦的作用也会不断下降。但实际情况正好相反，劳伦开始发挥更重要的作用。我们认为这样做没问题，原因是首席财务官克里斯•彼得森将承担更大的责任，而且会在今年兼任首席会计官。我们认为彼得森与法拉如出一辙，都是“摇滚明星”式的管理者。

    On Friday, U.S. retailer and clothing designer Ralph Lauren (RL) reported earnings for the fourth quarter. The results were better than Wall Street expected, although the company's tepid outlook has sent shares lower. As investors digest the news, here are three key questions for Ralph Lauren (the man, not the company) if we had five minutes with the CEO.

    Here goes …

On licensing

    Ralph Lauren is a company that has successfully navigated through decade-long mega-cycles over the past 40 years, and it's starting a new one right now. Some cycles have been choppy, some were perfectly executed. But the most successful had to do with regaining control over designing and selling different labels and product classifications. The most favorable cycle -- by a country mile -- was the one that just ended. And though some might argue otherwise, there's no doubt in our mind that it did in fact end.

    The strongest cycles were when the retailer was taking back control of its content (as opposed to licensing it out). For example, taking back a handbag license when the licensee only generated $100 million in sales on what should have been a billion dollar business. Or taking back a $400 million label from Jones Apparel Group when Jones was generating a 28% margin and only paying Ralph Lauren 7%. There are over a dozen examples. But with Ralph Lauren taking back the Chaps label from PVH/Warnaco, there are officially no more meaningful licenses the retailer can pull back in house.

    This matters because these license acquisitions are some of the most accretive deals we've seen in retail -- and that's not just because the acquisition costs for Ralph Lauren have usually been zero. While the retailer regained control of its content, we saw return on net operating assets go from 13% to 26% -- making Ralph Lauren one of the highest return retailers in its segment of retail.

    Question: Ralph Lauren is starting off a new cycle where it has to invest significant capital to grow. The opportunities are there, we think. But there's a real capital cost that needs to be put against these ideas. Is it mathematically possible for these new initiatives to be higher return than the slam-dunk growth opportunities the retailer has had over the past 10 years? If not, how should we think about the trajectory of financial returns? If returns go down, the multiple probably is not going up.

On succession planning

    There are only seven CEOs in the 500 companies listed in the Standard & Poor's Index who are 74 or older. Ralph Lauren is one of them. Interestingly enough, this year with the pseudo-retirement of longtime second-in-command Roger Farrah (who has been critical to the retailer's growth trajectory), Lauren is taking a greater role in the organization as opposed to the diminishing role one might expect from a 74-year-old CEO. We're okay with that for one reason -- and that's the enhanced responsibilities given to chief financial officer Chris Peterson, who added chief accounting officer to his role this year. We think that Peterson is every bit the rock star that Farrah was.