末日博士：中国将经历“颠簸式”着陆
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著名的悲观经济学家努里尔•鲁比尼说，是时候给他换一个绰号了。 这位纽约大学（the New York University）的教授曾预言房地产泡沫破裂和金融危机，近期他表达了积极的经济前景预期。周三上午，鲁比尼在拉斯维加斯的年度SALT对冲基金研讨会上发表演讲时表示，全球经济的诸多风险已经消退。而且，美国投资者似乎不再担心海外的政治问题。 鲁比尼说：“现在我坐在他旁边，你们应该叫我繁荣博士”，他指的是会上另一位经济预测家彼得•希夫。 鲁比尼表示，欧盟和欧元的表现都比去年同期更为强劲。他还表示，“安倍经济学”似乎在日本发挥了作用，日本的衰退风险已经消退。不过他认为，美国取得的进展最大，赤字规模已经缩小，华盛顿似乎也已进入“休战期”。 会议讨论的主题转向通缩，会议参与者包括美联储（Fed）前理事劳伦斯•迈耶、经济学家彼得•希夫、希腊前总理乔治•帕潘德里欧以及政治家出身的摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）雇员哈罗德•福特。希夫表示，通货紧缩对美国而言可能是好事，而鲁比尼却说，那是无稽之谈。他表示，美联储在终结通缩或经济放缓的威胁方面做得很好。 鲁比尼称：“美国财政危机的威胁已经结束，美联储的非常规货币政策已经奏效。” 2013年，美国股市上涨了30％。2014年初，鲁比尼曾表示，投资者似乎操之过急，而且他担心经济表现会令人失望。而现在鲁比尼似乎没那么担心了，也许是因为今年股市基本态势平稳。 相反，鲁比尼认为未来几年股票和其他投资有可能上涨。他认为，美联储将在未来几年内维持低利率，从而推动市场上涨。在此之后，可能会出现问题，不过那也是几年之后的事情了。鲁比尼说：“我们现在还没有进入泡沫时期”。 2014年，鲁比尼首要关注的问题是什么呢？中国。鲁比尼关注中国的银行系统已有一段时间。他认为，中国的银行贷款与金融危机之前美国的情况非常相似。他说，中国出现类似问题的风险正在上升，但他认为这个问题不会像美国当时那么严重。他说：“中国将出现颠簸式着陆，而市场的定价似乎并没有包含这个因素。” 与许多其他经济学家一样，鲁比尼也担心美国收入不平等产生的长期影响。他表示，资金就在可能花钱的人和可能坐拥资金的人之间转移。这会减缓资金在经济中的流动并阻碍投资。举个例子，鲁比尼说如果消费者没钱去消费，企业就不太愿意把储备的巨额资金用于扩张业务。 也许“繁荣博士”这个称号不会叫太久。（财富中文网） 译者： Lina |
Nouriel Roubini, the famously negative economist, says it may be time to change his nickname. The New York University professor, who predicted the housing bust and financial crisis, has been upping his economic outlook recently. Speaking at the annual SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday morning, Roubini said that many of the risks in the global economy have receded. Also helping, U.S. investors no longer seem worried about political trouble overseas. "Next to him you should call me Dr. Boom," said Roubini, referring to Peter Schiff, another economic forecaster on the panel. Roubini said the European Union and the Euro were looking a lot stronger than a year ago. He also said "Abenomics" appears to be working in Japan, and the risk of a recession has receded there. But the biggest improvement, Roubini thought, is taking place in the U.S. The deficit has shrunk and Washington appears to have called a truce. The discussion -- which also included former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, Schiff, the former prime minister of Greece George Papandreou, and politician-turned-Morgan Stanley-employee Harold Ford -- turned to deflation. Schiff said deflation could be good for the U.S. Roubini called that notion nonsense. He said the Fed had done a good job ending the threat of deflation or a slowdown. "The threat of a fiscal crisis in the United States is done," said Roubini. "The Fed's unconventional monetary policy has worked." Earlier in 2014, after the U.S. stock market rose 30% in 2013, Roubini said that investors appeared to have gotten ahead of themselves, and was worried the economy would disappoint. Roubini appears to be less concerned about that now, perhaps because the stock market has been mostly flat this year. Instead, Roubini suggested that stocks and other investments are likely to rise for the next few years. He thinks the market will be pushed up by the Fed, which will keep interest rates low for a few more years. After that, there could be problems, but that is a few years down the road. "We're not in a bubble yet," said Roubini. Roubini primary concern for 2014? China. Roubini has been watching the Chinese banks for a while, and he sees many similarities in the lending there to what was happening in the U.S. before the financial crisis. He said the risk of something similar happening in China is rising, but he thinks the problem will not be quite as bad as what we saw in the U.S. "It will be a bumpy landing," he said. "And the market doesn't seem to be pricing that in." Roubini, like many other economists, is also worried about the long-term effects of income inequality in the United States. He said money is shifting between people who are likely to spend it to those who may sit on those funds. That's slowing the movement of money in the economy and holding back investment. For example, Roubini said if consumers don't have money to spend, companies will be less willing to spend the trillions they have put away on expanding their businesses. Perhaps he won't be Dr. Boom for long. |
