美国年赚35亿美元基金经理：市场堪忧 勿逆市而为

    美国薪资最高的对冲基金经理对市场感到忧心忡忡。

    经营着Appaloosa Management的大卫•泰珀说：“有些时机是用来赚钱的，而眼下要避免亏损。我觉得目前的局势令人感到不安。”

    周三，泰珀在今年拉斯维加斯SALT投资大会上对基金经理同行和其他与会人员发出了一番警示。泰珀很少在公开场合聊市场，他最近被《机构投资者》（Institutional Investor）杂志的《阿尔法》（Alpha）专刊评选为薪资最高的对冲基金经理。这本杂志称，他去年挣了35亿美元。

    泰珀最大的担忧在于经济前景及其对股票价格的影响。他说，如果经济增长率能达到4%，他就不会产生这样的担忧。然而他说，即便考虑极端天气对经济的影响，经济的增速似乎也要比他预期的缓慢得多。确实，美国2014年第一季度GDP增速只有0.1%。

    泰珀说，这是个问题，因为目前的股价平均水平隐含16倍的远期市盈率，意味着投资者预期企业的盈利会相对强劲。但如果经济增长慢于预期，那么利润有可能会令人们大失所望。

    泰珀指出，鉴于经济增长前景平软，通缩也令人担忧。泰珀说：“如果我们再遇到价格压力，那么利润真的会被压低。”

    泰珀表示，尽管人们通常认为他是多头，但他目前仍然持一部分现金。“我并不是建议大家做空，”泰珀称，用华尔街的说法就是别逆市而为。“但也别拼命做多。” (财富中文网)

    译者：翔

    The nation's highest paid hedge fund manager is concerned about the market.

    "There are times to make money," says David Tepper, who runs Appaloosa Management. "This is a time to not lose money. I think it is a nervous time."

    On Wednesday, Tepper cautioned fellow fund managers and other attendees of this year's SALT Investing Conference in Las Vegas. Tepper, who rarely talks about the market publicly, was recently named the highest paid hedge fund manager by Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine. The magazine said he made $3.5 billion last year.

    Tepper's biggest concerns hinge on economic growth prospects and its effect on stock prices. He said his opinion would be different if the economy was growing at 4%. But he said that, even adjusting for the weather, the economy looks to be growing much more slowly than he expected. Indeed, U.S. GDP grew by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2014.

    That's a problem, Tepper says, because stocks on average are trading at 16 times next year's expected earnings. That means investors are expecting relatively strong bottom lines. But if the economy is growing more slowly than expected, profits are likely to disappoint.

    Tepper says he is also concerned about deflation, given the sluggish economic growth prospects. "If we have price pressure as well, then that's really going to push down profits," says Tepper.

    Tepper says that while he is normally seen as a bullish investor, he currently has a portion of his money in cash. "I'm not saying go short," Tepper says, which is the Wall Street term for betting against the market. "But don't be super long either."