调查结果预示欧亚经济正在复苏

    上周四公布的调查结果显示，5月份，欧元区经济复苏力度稍有减弱，但仍有望出现三年来表现最好的一个季度。

    研究机构Markit公布，5月份，该机构的欧元区采购经理人指数（PMI）从54.0的三年高点微跌至53.9。美银美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）分析师估算，这个数字对应的欧元区经济年化增长率为1.5%-2.0%。PMI超过50表明经济处于扩张状态。

    去年欧元区经济摆脱了衰退阴霾，但复苏一直乏力；部分成员国的失业率仍然接近历史最高水平；各家银行更关心的也依然是如何改善自己的资产负债情况，而不是向企业和消费者发放新的贷款。

    Markit调查了欧元区约5000家公司，外界认为它的PMI能很好地体现当前经济形势。如果得到产出和销售等硬数据的证实，5月份PMI就表示第一季度增长迟缓的欧元区经济现在已经有了改善。但这项数据中仍隐藏着许多严重不足之处。举例来说，欧元区第二大经济体、法国的综合指标（composite index）回落到了50以下，表明法国5月份的经济活动实际上出现了下降。此外，欧元区制造业指标（manufacturing component）跌到了52.5，是六个月以来的最低点，表明欧元升值已经带来了问题，至少对欧元区部分出口商来说是这样。欧洲央行（European Central Bank）在下周的理事会会议上可能会因此而面临更大的压力，要求它放松政策。美银美林分析师预计，欧央行将把主要再融资利率（refinancing rate）从0.25%下调至0.10%。就算目前没有出现通缩，欧元区的通胀率也已经非常接近于零，导致欧央行在过去几个月中一直面临着采取措施的压力。

    英国传来了更为明显的有利消息。英国产业联合会（Confederation of British Industry）的最新调查显示，大多数公司表示3-5月份产出上升，预计随后三个月产出将进一步增长的公司也占大多数。虽然欧央行依然更有可能放松货币政策，但看来英国央行（Bank of England）正在缓慢地朝着首次收紧政策迈进。市场预计，英国央行最快将在明年第一季度提高基准利率。

    此外，上周四公布的亚洲经济数据都表现良好。汇丰银行（HSBC）估算，中国制造业达到了五个月以来的最佳状态。日本的类似调查表明，工业企业已经消化了国内销售税大幅上调的影响——就日本首相安倍晋三再次启动经济的重大计划而言，许多人都认为提高销售税是最大的风险因素之一。日经（Nikkei）指数上周四收盘时上涨2.1%，香港恒生指数也上扬了0.5%。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    The euro zone's economic recovery weakened slightly in May, but is still on course for its best quarter in three years, according to a survey released Thursday.

    Research firm Markit said its Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro zone fell marginally to 53.9 in May from a three-year high of 54.0, indicating that the region is growing at an annualized pace of between 1.5%-2.0%, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. A number above 50 denotes expansion.

    The euro zone exited recession last year, but the recovery has struggled to build any momentum, with unemployment still near record highs in some countries, and banks still more concerned with strengthening their balance sheets rather than extending new loans to businesses and consumers.

    Markit's surveys track responses from some 5,000 companies around the euro zone, and are seen as a good indicator of current economic conditions. If confirmed by 'hard' data on output and sales, the latest PMIs would represent an improvement from a sluggish first quarter, but they still continue to hide a number of important weak spots: for example, the composite index for France, the region's second-largest economy, slipped back below 50, indicating that activity actually fell during the month. In addition, the manufacturing component of the regional index fell to a six-month low of 52.5, suggesting that the strength of the euro is causing problems for at least some of the region's exporters. That may increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to ease policy when its governing council meets next week. BAML analysts expect the ECB to cut its key refinancing rate to 0.10% from 0.25%. Even if the region isn't currently experiencing outright deflation, inflation is so close to zero that pressure has been building on the ECB to do something for months.

    There was more clearly positive news from the UK, where the Confederation of British Industry's latest survey found a big majority of companies reporting higher output in there three months to May, and another big majority expecting output to rise further in the coming quarter. Whereas the ECB is still more likely to loosen its monetary policy, the Bank of England appears to be edging closer to first measures to tighten it. Markets expect the BoE to raise its key interest rate as early as the first quarter of next year.

    Elsewhere, it's been a good day for data in Asia too, with HSBC's estimate of manufacturing conditions in China hitting its highest level in five months and a similar survey in Japan suggesting that industry has digested a big increase in the domestic sales tax, an event that many saw as one of the biggest risks to the radical plans of Prime Minister Abe to get the economy going again. The Nikkei index of Japanese stocks ended up 2.1% on the day, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.5%.