政变之后，泰国依然疑云密布

    5月22日，泰国军方领导人在国家电视台宣布夺取政权。为了“在短时间内恢复和平和改革政府政策”，军方成立了“国家和平与秩序维持司令部”（National Peace and Order Maintaining Command），并解散内阁，废除宪法（现行宪法也是2006年政变的产物），同时宣布，从晚上10点到凌晨5点实行宵禁。泰国82年以来第19次军事政变（历次政变中，有些并没有成功）的消息传出后，全国电视频道均播放带有军方标志的静态画面和爱国歌曲。

    这当然不是第一次。泰国的军事政变就像美国的总统大选一样频繁。虽然泰国军方曾经暗示，他们不会再发起政变，但第19次军事政变一点都不意外。经过持续多年的政治冲突（自上一次政变以来），泰国最近再次陷入了政治僵局：数月以来，一直有传闻称军方将进行干预，周二，泰国军方终于实行了戒严令。

    这次政变的时机也颇为耐人寻味——当天下午，泰国军方召集各方政治领导人前往泰国陆军俱乐部，表面上看是要讨论如何解决危机，但后来的形势却急转直下。（这是泰国军方召集谈判的第二天，一位军方发言人曾称第一天的谈判是“积极的”。）

    很显然，会谈没有成功。军方扣押了政治领导人，并在电视上宣布接管政权。第二天，泰国军方又逮捕了150人，包括两周前被泰国宪法法院赶下台的总理英拉•西那瓦。

    那么，对于泰国及其已经非常脆弱的经济，这种混乱的局势到底意味着什么？

    正如笔者之前所写，泰国曾成功渡过多次政变和政治动荡。2006年，从媒体大亨当选总理的他信•西那瓦（英拉的哥哥）在上一次政变中被赶下台。那次政变甚至被称作“丝绸政变”，最终也顺利结束。坦克滚滚而来的第二天上午，泰国人便走上街头，向士兵们送上玫瑰花。

    上周早些时候，华侨银行（OCBC Bank）分析师巴纳巴斯•贾恩曾写道：“历史上，军事干预一直都是结束政治冲突和建立合法政府的有效方法。”他补充道，戒严令就像是“苦口良药”，正是在政治和经济上患病的国家所需要的。

    但我们也有理由认为，军事政变这一次不会那么美好。自2006年以来发生了许多事——其中大多数都是上一次如丝绸般平滑的军事政变的副作用。目前住在迪拜的他信处于自我放逐的状态，但他在泰国国内仍然有许多支持者，也是泰国政治问题的核心。（自被罢免之后，他信的姐夫、妹妹和商业密友曾先后执掌政权）。他的政治基础大多来自泰国农村，这些地区越来越富有，受教育程度也越来越高，民众不再愿意接受泰国精英阶层非民主的统治。曼谷今天爆发的反军事政变游行就表明了这种现状，更说明军事政变只会加深积怨，增加爆发更多暴力冲突的可能。

    最后，军事政变对商业也没有好处。而在短时间内，政变之后的宵禁同样不利于商业，而且已经影响了游客的计划。据报道，连曼谷臭名昭著的红灯区也已被关闭。而且泰国许多汽车工厂的夜班工人也受到了影响。【泰国的汽车制造商包括本田汽车公司（Honda）、丰田汽车公司（Toyota）和福特汽车公司（Ford）等。】

    泰国安本资产管理公司（Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand）CIO阿迪蒂普表示，泰国的经济命运很大程度上取决于军方需要多长时间来兑现承诺。“未来的关键问题仍未解决：将由谁来领导临时政府，军方将掌权多长时间，何时举行下一次选举。临时政府的有效性和迅速恢复民主选举将是低迷的泰国经济能否实现振兴的关键。”

    但这并不容易。他补充说：“从更长远来看，造成深度分歧的根本原因依旧笼罩着泰国，只有解决了这些分歧，才能为泰国找到持久的解决方案。”（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    Yesterday Thailand's military leadership went on state TV and announced they were seizing power. Vowing to "restore peace in a short time and reform government policy," the generals formed the "National Peace and Order Maintaining Command," dissolved the cabinet, threw out the constitution (itself the product of the country's 2006 coup) and declared a curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. TVs across the country broadcast a static image of a Thai military logo and patriotic songs as news of Thailand's 19th military coup in 82 years—a handful of those weren't successful—sunk in.

    Not a first, certainly. Military coups in Thailand happen almost as often as American presidential elections. And though Thailand's military had hinted they were done with all that, No. 19 was not totally unexpected. Gripped by political conflict for years (since its last coup, really), the country had recently arrived again at political impasse: For months there have been rumors of impending military intervention and on Tuesday, the military imposed martial law.

    Still, the coup's timing was peculiar—a sharp turn in an afternoon that had brought the nation's political leaders to the Thai Army Club, ostensibly to talk their way to a resolution of the crisis. (This was the second day of army-brokered negotiations and a military spokesperson had characterized the first as 'positive.')

    Obviously, that didn't happen. The junta detained the political leaders, and then announced on TV they were taking over. They rounded up 150 more today, including Yingluck Shinawatra, the Thai Prime Minister who was ousted two weeks ago by the nation's Constitutional Court.

    So what does this mess mean for Thailand and its already weakened

    As I've written before, Thailand has traditionally weathered coups and political instability quite well. Its last coup, which ousted media tycoon-turned-PM Thaksin Shinawatra (the brother of the recently ousted prime minister) in 2006, was even called the "silk coup" it went down so smoothly. The morning after tanks rolled in, Thais were on the streets presenting soldiers with roses.

    In a note earlier this week, Barnabas Gan, an analyst with OCBC Bank, wrote, "Historically, a military intervention has been effective in ending political strife and establishing a legitimate government presence." He added that martial law was likely just the Ya Kom, or "bitter medicine," the politically and economically ailing nation needed.

    Yet, there are also reasons to think things will not be so, uh, rosy this go round. A lot has happened since 2006—much of it the fallout from that smooth-as-silk coup. Shinawatra, who lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai, nevertheless remains popular and at the heart of Thailand's political problems. (Since being deposed, he's had a brother-in-law, a younger sister, and a close business crony in the seat of power). His political base, much of which comes from Thailand's rural provinces, is increasingly wealthy, educated, and unwilling to tolerate the undemocratic developments dealt them by the country's elites. That anti-coup demonstrations sprung up today in Bangkok is a show of that and a sure sign the coup will only add to that list of grievances and to the likelihood of more violence.

    Ultimately, that will not be a good thing for business. Nor in the very short term, will the post-coup curfew, which has already disrupted tourist plans—even Bangkok's notoriously seedy red light districts reportedly shut down—and night shifts at the nation's many automobile plants. (Honda, Toyota and Ford are among car manufacturers there.)

    Adithep Vanabriksha, CIO at Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand, says much of the country's economic fate relies on how quickly the junta can live up to their name. "Going forward, key questions remain unanswered: who will lead the interim government, how long the military will remain in control, when the next elections will be held. The effectiveness of the interim government and the speedy return to electoral democracy will be key to reviving the sagging economy."

    That's no easy task. He adds, "Longer term, the underlying reasons for the deep divisions are still haunting Thailand and will need to be addressed before a lasting solution can be found."