跟海兔学习管理投资风险

    每年的这个时候，我们很多人就都开始一心想着，夏天快到了，该去度假了。很快就可以把一切抛在脑后，在不插电的日子里筹划些宏伟实验，哪怕只有几小时或几天也好。总之，重新拥抱大自然的时候到了。

    我们都很清楚，在过一阵不插电的日子后，自己将会何等头脑清晰、心明眼亮。如果这段时间是在户外度过的，就更是如此。身为一个职业投资者，20多年来我一直十分珍视这些短暂的忙里偷闲的时段，我的工作也因为这些时段带来的清晰思路而获益匪浅。而最近我在想，如果这种清晰思路能比晒黑的肤色维持更长时间会怎样？如果大自然不光是我逃离纷扰的所在，更是我的私人专业教练又会怎样？

    我在翻阅本人的拙作《投资的本质》（The Nature of Investing）时发现，通过运用仿生学就能找到上述问题令人称奇的答案——即在日常生活中遵循自然的节律而动。的确，这一点对多数在美国公司效力的人来说听起来可能有点不太严肃、疯疯癫癫，但这个过程始于问题这一点却十分具有革命性。也就是说，它并不是始于算法、需求建议书（RFP），或是截止时间的。它是始于充满好奇心的开放式探究。

    比如，作为一个基础投资者（fundamental investor，关注企业财报等基本面的投资者——译注），我会花大量时间思考所投公司的业绩增长和结构转型。而通常情况下，在投资者所做的陈述中，这些经营似乎顺风顺水，轻而易举，预计的每个指标都会不断攀升。但是看看实际结果就会发现，现实情况很少会这么如意。长期来看，只有不到一半的并购被认为是成功的，而“《财富》20家增长最快的公司”排行榜中仅有3家公司2012年和2013年全部上榜。我们如何分辨健康或不健康的增长特征？哪些因素有助于形成结构转型的有效机制？

    对于这些问题，大自然要比任何投资者关系简报都阐释得清楚。它背后的主要理念很简单：增长需要获得系统其他部分的支持，不管这个系统是在单一组织的内部还是属于更大情境。野蜜蜂不会匆匆忙忙建个最大的蜂巢，它们会根据蜂群的规模和需求使用单元结构来建造。

    身为投资者，我们经常会出席重大活动，战略规划、并购、新产品或重组都是在这些活动上发布的。但是，只有深入了解公司运营的各种信号和催化因素——也就是那些在这些重大时刻前后存在的、没那么引人注目、也没那么广而告之的日常运营——才能真正获得对这些公司的深刻认识。

    风险管理则是投资者关心的另一个重大主题。无论是管理自己的退休账户，还是管理大型机构的基金，风险都是大家心心念念的头等大事。就这个问题而言，我从狐獴和海兔身上发现了令人惊讶的启示。

    事实证明，狐獴不仅是可爱的真人秀明星；它们还是很出色的风险控制经理和卓有成效的教育家。成年狐獴会循序渐进地教小狐獴如何抓蝎子（这是它们的主要食物）。首先，它们会给小狐獴吃死蝎子，然后给它们去掉尾巴的蝎子，最后才让小狐獴去对付活生生带着毒勾的蝎子。也就是说，随着小狐獴技能和经验的增长，它们要处理的风险也随之逐步提高。这个过程中并不存在一成不变的方程式；随着小狐獴的成长，它的父母会采用精确调校的反馈回路让它在适当的时机，采用适当的手段应对风险。

    而海兔也是富有创造性的风险控制经理。想想这种动物的生活：它们生活在海底，又湿又软，富有营养，身边却随时有天敌出没。这真是个险象环生的处境。大家可能会认为它会打造超级坚固的巢穴，或者说它有法子比其他动物都游得快。但有些种类的海兔却发展出一种能从身边有机体中吸收毒素的能力。但它不仅不会受到毒害，相反却能将毒素注入那些潜在的天敌，从而利用毒素实现自卫。

    我不知道是否有可能开发出像狐獴一样强健的反馈循环，或是像海兔一样将风险植入我们自己的防御系统——但是涉及到具备自动适应能力、充满弹性又生生不息的系统，大自然确实为我们提供了绝佳的范本。但我们毕竟有积累了38亿年的丰沛智慧可供汲取。我们有机会在大自然这个广阔领域让自己的职业生涯重新扎根，而不仅仅是度假时才去亲近自然。我们非常需要与大自然重新融为一体，这也是我们建立真正能长远获利的事业的最佳机会。

    本文作者凯瑟琳•柯林斯是“蜜蜂资本”的创始人兼首席执行官。这是一家致力于探寻如何做出最佳投资决策的研究公司。她曾在富达管理及研究公司担任过多个要职。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    This is the time of year many of us are thinking of summer vacation. Soon it will be time for getting away from it all, for planning grand experiments in unplugged living, if only for a few hours or a few days. It's time for reconnection with our natural world.

    We all know that crystal clear feeling that comes after a spell of unplugged time, especially if that time is spent outdoors. For over 20 years as a professional investor, I've relished these small windows of escape, and my work has benefitted from the clarity that they bring. More recently I've wondered, what if that clarity could last longer than my sunburn does? What if instead of being a place to escape, nature could become my personal and professional mentor?

    While researching my book, The Nature of Investing, I found surprising answers to this question through the practice of biomimicry – that is, mimicking the flows of nature in everyday life. Admittedly, this might sound sort of hippy dippy for most anyone working in Corporate America, but the very fact that this process begins with a question is quiet revolutionary: It does not start with an algorithm, or an RFP, or a deadline. It starts with open inquiry, with curiosity.

    For example, as a fundamental investor, I've spent a lot of time thinking about growth and structural transformation at companies. Often, investor presentations make operations seem like a smooth, easy glide path, with every projected measurement charting up and to the right. Yet a quick glance at actual results shows that reality is rarely so smooth. Less than half of mergers are considered successful over time, and only three of Fortune's top 20 fast-growing firms appeared on the list in both 2013 and 2012. How can we discern healthy versus unhealthy growth characteristics? What are the markers of effective mechanisms for structural transformation?

    Nature can illustrate these answers more clearly than any investor relations presentation. The main idea behind this is simple: Growth needs to be supported by other parts of the system, whether that system is within a single organism or part of a broader landscape. Wild honeybees do not rush to build the biggest hive possible; they use modular construction, building in sync with the size and needs of the colony.

    As investors, we often are present for the big day, when a strategic plan, merger, new product, or restructuring is announced. But understanding more about those corporate signals and enzymes - the less dramatic, less public processes before and after big news days - is where real insights can be gained.

    Another big topic for investors is risk management. Whether managing your own retirement account or large institutional funds, risk is top of mind. On this issue, I've found surprising inspiration from meerkats and sea slugs.

    Turns out, meerkats are not just cute reality TV stars; they are also terrific managers of risk and effective educators. Adult meerkats teach their babies how to handle scorpions (a key food source) step by step. First they bring the babies dead scorpions to eat, then live scorpions with the tails removed, then finally the little meerkats are ready to handle full-fledged live scorpions, tails and all. Risk is gradually increased in alignment with the expertise and experience of the meerkats. It's not a static equation; risk is taken in appropriate measures at appropriate times, using well-calibrated feedback loops along the way.

    Nudibranchs – commonly called sea slugs – are similarly creative risk managers. Consider the life of these creatures: They are squishy and nutritious and living at the bottom of the sea, surrounded by predators. This is inherently a risk-laden proposition. You might think that nudibranchs create super-strong shelters, or that they've found a method for out swimming others. But some types of nudibranch have instead developed the ability to absorb toxins from organisms around them. Rather than being harmed, the sea slug passes the toxins through to harm its would-be predators, using the poison as its own defense.

    I don't know if it's possible to develop feedback loops as strong as the meerkats, or to incorporate risk into our own defenses like the sea slugs – yet nature does provide us the best examples of adaptive, resilient, regenerative systems. After all, we have 3.8 billion years of wisdom to draw upon. We have the opportunity to re-root our professional lives in this realm, instead of just visiting it on vacation. This re-integration is sorely needed, and is our best chance for truly, deeply profitable endeavors.

    Katherine Collins is Founder and CEO of Honeybee Capital, a research firm dedicated to the pursuit of optimal investment decision-making. Katherine has previously served in numerous capacities at Fidelity Management and Research Company.