新总理，老问题：国际投资者不宜对印度盲目乐观

    近期，莫迪获得历史性胜利，当选印度新任总理，全球市场应声上涨。外国投资者希望莫迪能够扭转印度的经济形势。仅在过去六个月内，外国投资者在印度市场的投资总额就达到了160亿美元。

    不过，尽管这个世界上最大的民主国家在世界舞台上扮演着重要角色，但由于过度监管、缺乏全国性的基础设施、政治上的腐败，印度从未真正发挥全部的经济潜力。虽然莫迪政府的自由市场改革前景对投资界而言十分诱人，而且可能会吸引更多资金流入印度，但是，美国和其他地方的投资者不能操之过急，相反应认真考虑印度经济形势以及莫迪政府中仍然存在的固有风险。

    印度拥有12亿人口，其中30％仍然生活在贫困之中，而56％的劳动力从事农业工作，但农业仅占GDP的18％。因此，印度的经济改革不仅仅需要放宽商业监管，还需要对劳动力进行大规模地重新分配，同时通过更好的教育和职业培训对农业劳动力进行再培训，让他们能够从事其他职业。此外，虽然印度女性占人口的50%，但只有29％的印度女性参加工作，说明有价值的资源没有得到充分地利用，而这也阻碍了国家的进步。

    为改善这种效率低下的局面，莫迪政府将不得不重新打造一套新班子。但鉴于官方资源的缺乏和印度臭名远扬的官僚怠惰现象，莫迪政府要想取得成功，关键在于赢得私营部门的资金和支持。此外，还需要重点指出的是，印度劳动力的重组将需要花费数年、甚至数十年的时间，而后才能为经济带来成效。这些因素都会降低投资者的短期和中期回报，而且印度自身也需解放思想，在这一方面进行先期投资。

    印度进行自由市场实验的另一个主要挑战是印度人民党（BJP）在省级层面的基础势力，人民党的根源在于宗教原教旨主义。如果没有真正自由的社会，自由市场经济也就无法正常运转。而莫迪所领导人民党奉行的是保守的社会和政治理念，无法实现真正自由的社会。虽然新任总理承诺将采取包容性立场，但要让人民党的广大成员也做到这一点却极为困难，他们中的大部分人仍居住在乡村，而且深陷于种姓制度这样的传统社会结构之中。

    人民党的农村基础是莫迪方针面临的另一个风险。虽然印度的贫穷人口肯定会从经济改革中受益，但他们也最容易受到企业的剥削，因此可能需要通过国家福利来维持生计。这对莫迪以及印度真正的自由市场而言是一个明显的矛盾。为了提高国家的经济水平，印度必须推行资本主义准则，但如果没有国家的控制，印度的穷人和中产阶级会被远远甩在后面。过去二十年的伪自由经济使得大型印度公司和外国公司得以繁荣发展，也支持了印度经济的发展，但由于财富过于集中、收入不平等以及政府腐败，印度未能改变普通民众的命运。

    这些会让外国投资者感到担忧，因为无计划的偶然增长可能会带来动荡。印度不断扩大的贫富差距将引发劳工问题和政治动荡，而这可能会妨碍莫迪政府引导经济平衡、系统地增长。人们往往认为自由市场原则可以解决所有问题，但如果只有一小部分人享有大部分成果，问题就无法得到解决；如果人民党无法实现承诺，为所有人带来繁荣，它也会像左倾国大党一样很快被赶下台。

    此外，印度还存在腐败这个棘手的问题。出现腐败问题并非缺少法规，而是因为官员普遍漠视法规。要根除腐败，莫迪政府除了制定体制上的解决方案之外，还需要从文化和个人层面着手来解决这一问题。说起来容易做起来难。具有讽刺意味的是，现有企业通过抑制竞争来保护自己在印度市场的霸主地位，而腐败是这些企业运用的一种工具。这意味着莫迪的反腐败计划可能也会面临来自私营部门大型企业的反对（虽然它们只会暗中反对）。

    这一切并不意味着新任总理完全没有机会，但等待他的将是重重困难。如果投资者将希望寄托于新总理实行切实或快速的改革，那么他们最好采取有针对性的对冲措施以避免损失。目前的市场的兴奋情绪可能只是一个泡沫，而且投资者可能会因此付出高昂的代价。

    本文作者是一位政治和商业评论员。他曾在拉扎德和德利佳华这两家投资银行任职，还曾为对冲基金Ramius效力。他目前是中端市场广播服务提供商戴维森媒体集团的董事。作者拥有哥伦比亚大学商学院的工商管理硕士学位，还著有两部惊悚小说。（财富中文网）

    译者： Lina

    Markets around the world rallied recently on Narendra Modi's historic win as India's new prime minister. Foreign investors are hopeful he will turn the economy around and have invested $16 billion in India's markets in the last six months alone.

    But while the world's largest democracy is an important player on the world stage, India has never quite managed to achieve its full economic potential due to over-regulation, lack of national infrastructure, and political corruption. The prospect of free market reform under Modi is enticing for the investment community and could open the floodgates to a lot more capital, but before investors in the U.S. and elsewhere dive in too quickly, they should consider the risks still inherent in the Indian economic landscape as well as in Modi's government more carefully.

    India is a country with 1.2 billion people, of which 30% still live in poverty, and 56% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture even though it contributes only 18% of GDP. Reforming India's economy will therefore require more than just the relaxation of business regulations; it will require a massive reallocation of labor and the retraining of agrarian workers for other professions through better education and vocational training. In addition, only 29% of women in India are in the workforce even though they comprise 50% of the population, which represents the severe underutilization of a valuable resource, and a barrier to progress.

    Modi's government will have to create an infrastructure to rectify these inefficiencies, but given the lack of official resources and India's notorious bureaucratic lethargy, funding and support from the private sector will be crucial for success. It is also important to note that the reorganization of India's labor force will take years, if not decades, to yield results for the economy. All this can push returns down for investors in the short and medium term, and necessitate an upfront financial leap of faith in the country itself.

    Another major challenge for India's free market experiment will be the provincial foundation of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has its roots in religious fundamentalism. Free market economics can't work properly without a truly free society, and the conservative social and political philosophies of Modi's party could prevent that from happening. While the new prime minister has promised to be inclusive, getting rank and file BJP members, many of whom reside in villages and remain mired in traditional social structures such as the caste system, to follow suit will be extremely difficult.

    The rural base of the BJP also poses another risk for Modi's agenda. While India's poor will certainly benefit from economic reform, they are also the most vulnerable to exploitation by corporate forces and may require state-sponsored welfare for subsistence. This creates an obvious contradiction for Modi and a real free market in India. To lift the country economically, capitalist principles must be embraced, but without state control, India's poor and middle class may be left behind. The pseudo economic freedom of the past two decades, which allowed large Indian corporations and foreign companies to prosper, has buoyed India's economy, but because of the narrow concentration of wealth, income inequality, and government corruption, done little to change the fortunes of the common man.

    That should concern foreign investors because of the instability haphazard growth can cause. A widening prosperity gap in India will cause labor problems and political unrest, which can hamper the efforts of the Modi administration to direct even and systematic economic growth.It is tempting to imagine that free market principles can solve all problems but not if the spoils accrue disproportionately to a small segment of the population; and if the BJP fails to keep its promise of prosperity for everyone, they will be ousted as quickly as the left-leaning Congress party was.

    There's also the intractability of corruption in India. Such problems are not because of a lack of rules but because of a widespread disregard for those rules. To eradicate corruption, Modi's administration will have to address it at a cultural and individual level in addition to an institutional one, which is much easier said than done. Ironically too, corruption is a tool for incumbent businesses to protect their hegemony in Indian markets by stifling competition, implying that Modi's anti-corruption agenda could face opposition from powerful private-sector players as well (albeit in the shadows).

    All this is not to say that the new prime minister does not stand a chance, but that the odds are stacked heavily against him, and if investors are depending on real or quick reform, they would be smart to hedge their bets. The current market euphoria could turn out to be a bubble, and an expensive one.

    Sanjay Sanghoee is a political and business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius. Sanghoee sits on the Board of Davidson Media Group, a mid-market radio station operator. He has an MBA from Columbia Business School and is also the author of two thriller novels.