4大迹象预示美国经济增长加速

    经济历史的每个阶段都有看多者和看空者。

    无论你对美国这个国家的金融状况持何观点，都可以找到数据或证据来支持这个观点。最近几周，这种状况变得尤为突出。投资者和经济观察人士一方面看到有数据显示我们可能正处于新一轮经济衰退的边缘(比如第一季度经济年化增长率为-2.9%）；而另一方面其他信息则表明经济，复苏正在加速。

    虽然我们很少会在一次广泛而稳定的经济扩张过程中看到这么大幅度的经济萎缩，但经济的长期趋势确实表明未来几年我们将看到更多好消息。下面是预计美国经济将加速增长的4个理由：

    1.人口结构：美国人口最多的年龄段是23岁，这你知道吗？我们听到过太多婴儿潮一代以及他们退休将对经济产生的影响。虽然婴儿潮一代平均每对夫妇养育的子女数量少于他们的父辈，但婴儿潮一代的子女在美国人口统计中仍然是最多的：

    Every period in economic history has its bulls and bears.

    Whatever your opinion on the financial health of the country, you can find data or evidence to support it. This fact has seemed particularly salient in recent weeks as investors and economy-watchers have been hit with data that makes it look like we’re on the verge of another recession (like the news that the economy shrank at a 2.9% annualized rate in the first quarter) and other information that suggests that the recovery is actually gaining steam.

    But while it would be rare for the economy to shrink at such a magnitude while in the middle of a broad and stable expansion, the long-term trends in the economy actually suggest that we’ll see more good news in the coming years. Here are four reasons to expect the economy to take off:

    1. Demographics: Did you know that the most common age in America is 23? We hear a lot about the baby boom generation and the effects their retirement will have on the economy. But while baby boomers didn’t have nearly as many children per couple as their parents did, the children of baby boomers are still the largest demographic in America:

    因此，尽管婴儿潮一代退休导致社会保险、医疗补助计划（Medicaid）等政府项目的支出增加，导致退休这部分人的生产力损失，但生力军也在加入。目前这批“回声潮世代”（echo-boomers）刚刚进入最佳工作年龄，而且未来几十年美国人口众数也将是最富经济生产力的。

    2.企业仍未开始投资：自从经济衰退以来，经济不景气的一大部分原因应归咎于企业尚未恢复投资。事实上，它们一直在储备现金，用于回购股票或支付股息。虽然这些行动对于股市有利，但不会创造就业，也不会增加工资。

    美国企业界如果继续不投资，长此以往必然会深受其害。美国银行（Bank of America）全球经济研究联席主管伊森•哈里斯最近在写给客户的报告中写到：

    经过起初的稳步复苏后，资本支出在过去两年暂歇。我们相信，投资疲弱反映的是对美国经济（反复走弱）以及华盛顿（反复游走在危机边缘）的信心丧失。展望未来，我们期待这些不利因素会弱化。最近的预算协议达成后，虽然不能保证下次总统大选前危机信号完全解除，但至少1年内应该不会再出现。美国企业界似乎对经济增长也更有了一点信心，如果连续几个季度数据良好，应该会激起一些投资冲动。

    So, while the retirement of the baby boom generation will cost us in terms of bigger bills for government programs like Social Security and Medicaid, not to mention the lost productivity of those retired workers, there are reinforcements on the way. These so-called “echo-boomers” are just now entering their prime working ages and, in the next couple decades, the modal population in America will be the most economically productive.

    2. Businesses still haven’t started investing—yet:Much of the weakness in the economy since the recession can be blamed on the fact that businesses haven’t been investing their money back into their firms. Instead, they’ve been hoarding cash or spending it on stock buybacks or dividends. While these moves may be good for the stock market, they don’t tend to create jobs or increase wages.

    But it’s unlikely that corporate America can continue to get away with not investing in their businesses for much longer. In a recent note to clients, Ethan Harris, co-head of global economics research for Bank of America writes:

    After a solid initial recovery, capital spending took a breather over the last two years. We believe this weakness reflected a loss of confidence in both the economy (after repeated soft patches) and in Washington (with repeated brinkmanship moments). Looking forward we expect those headwinds to abate. Recent budget agreements take brinkmanship off the table for at least a years, if not all the way through the presidential election. Companies also seem a bit more confident about growth so a good couple quarters should spur some animal spirits.