为何欧盟不敢轻易制裁俄罗斯

    欧盟终于有了对普京采取强硬态度的意向。

    根据路透社（Reuters）的一篇报道，由于普京支持乌克兰东部的反政府武装，同时拒绝就马航MH-17被击落事件全面配合国际调查，欧盟领导人于周二举行会晤，讨论对俄罗斯的制裁问题。

    尽管欧盟领导人同意增加需要制裁的个人和公司数量，但在扩大制裁范围，如阻止俄罗斯进入欧洲资本市场或获得欧盟的技术上，他们仍然没有达成共识。此外，到目前为止，法国拒绝取消为俄罗斯建造和供应战舰的价值16.2亿美元的合同，这与英国和美国的意见相左。

    不过欧盟无法对俄罗斯采取更加严厉的制裁，这点并不完全在意料之外。与美国不同，欧盟与俄罗斯在经济上有着千丝万缕的联系，拒绝俄罗斯进入资本市场不利于欧洲经济的稳定。而欧盟本身仍然在金融危机的泥潭中挣扎，整体发展缓慢，失业率居高不下。

    高频经济公司（High Frequency Economics）的首席经济学家卡尔•维恩伯格在本周二给客户的报告中写道：

    “如果俄罗斯被排除在全球资本市场之外，或者如果俄罗斯在进口能源类资本货物以及进行国防类交易时受到影响，他们只要不去偿还价值7,200亿美元的外债，就不会有什么其他损失。这些债券大多由西欧银行以及投资基金持有。俄罗斯只要暂缓偿付债务120天，就能把自己遭受的痛苦百倍奉还，大多数机构在这种情形下都只能减记其债务。”

    考虑到欧洲银行境况不佳，欧盟的经济增长几乎停滞，因此欧洲领导人在向俄国发动经济战争时举棋不定，也就不足为奇了，尽管他们已经受够了普京的所作所为。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    Europe is finally showing interest in playing hardball with Vladimir Putin.

    According to a report from Reuters, leaders from the European Union met Tuesday to discuss stepping up sanctions against Russia in retaliation for Putin’s support of rebel groups in eastern Ukraine and for his refusal to fully cooperate with an international investigation into the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 last week.

    While E.U. leaders did agree to widen the list of individuals and companies that would face sanctions, they could not come to agreement on a broader set of sanctions, like blocking Russian access to European capital markets and technology. In addition, France has so far refused to renege on a $1.62 billion deal to build and deliver warships to Russia, defying British and American wishes.

    But it’s not entirely surprising that the E.U. has failed to step up to the plate with tougher sanctions. Unlike the United States, the European Union has deep economic ties to Russia, and taking steps to block Russian access to capital markets could have destabilizing effects on the European economy, which is itself still muddling through a banking crisis that has left the bloc with slow growth and high unemployment.

    As Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a note to clients Tuesday morning:

    “If Russia has already been excluded from global capital markets, and if imports of energy-related capital goods and all defense-related transactions have been scratched, Russia loses nothing incremental from walking away from servicing its $720 billion worth of foreign debt. Most of those bonds are held by Western European banks and investment funds. Russia could induce pain well beyond what it is experiencing from these sanctions by simply withholding debt service payments for 120 days, after which most institutions would have to write down the loans.”

    With European banks already in bad shape, and the E.U. economy just barely growing as it is, it’s no surprise that European leaders are having a hard time declaring full-on economic warfare against Russia, even if they are fed up with Putin’s behavior.