风投行业的结构正在发生变化

    向前看，而不是向后看

    就在几年前，对风投行业的评价还是，过去15年的表现较差，风投这种资产类别并不值得采取有限合伙投资形式。我已经用大量数据说明，这些分析的缺陷在于它们只考虑了“后视镜”数据。它们所用的数据只涵盖了互联网泡沫的高峰期，在这期间出现了许多资本过剩的公司，消费者和企业市场则规模有限。在短短三年内，风投行业的规模就增长了两倍。

    目前情况如何？

    • 互联网用户达24亿人，是之前的50多倍。

    • 网络连接速度比以前快180倍，达到每秒10.5Mb。

    • 1.64亿美国智能手机用户给我们带来了“全天候在线”的移动连接。

    • 社交渠道把我们所有人都联系在一起，因此好公司扩张得更快。

    • 苹果公司（Apple）、谷歌（Google）、亚马逊（Amazon）和易趣（eBay）等公司给予我们一键购物的畅快体验。

    • 风投市场重返20世纪90年代中期的水平，规模适当，竞争减少。

    • 设立公司的成本下降95%，这意味着天使投资者和种子投资者能够为更多的初创公司提供融资支持。

    • 公司的规模化仍然需要风投资金，也就是说，大量资金都流向了Uber、Airbnb和Snapchat这样的行业佼佼者。

    无需跳跃式思维也可以观察到，在即将到来的未来，风投行业处于一个多么有利的位置。有限合伙人们已经注意到，从任何标准判断，2014年都是自2008-2009年“大衰退（Great Recession）”以来最繁忙的一年，原因是预计将有250-300亿美元资金投入到200多只风投基金中。这些资金将流向何处？风投行业又将出现什么样的变化呢？

    A look forward, not backward

    Just a few years ago the narrative in the venture capital industry was that performance over the past 15 years was poor and that venture wasn’t an asset class worthy of limited partner’s investment. As I pointed out in presentation with much data, these analyses were flawed in that they considered only rear-view mirror data. The data set only considered only a period at the peak of Internet hype, with the launch of many over-capitalized businesses against a limited market size of consumers and businesses, and a venture capital industry that had tripled in size in just three years.

    Where are we today?

    • We have 2.4 billion Internet users, or 50x more than before.

    • Online connections are 180x faster at 10.5 Mbps.

    • 164m US smartphone users gives us “always-on” mobile connectivity

    • We’re all socially connected, so great businesses spread faster.

    • We all have one-click purchase power through Apple, Google, Amazon and eBay.

    • The VC market has right-sized, returning back to mid 90′s levels with less competition.

    • The cost to start a business is 95% lower, meaning many more companies are created and funded by angel and seed investors.

    • It still takes venture capital to scale a business, which means large amounts of capital go into industry winners like Uber, Airbnb and Snapchat.

    It doesn’t take a huge leap to see how well the VC industry is positioned for the immediate future. LPs have taken notice as 2014 is by all accounts the busiest year for LPs since the Great Recession began as it is forecast that between $25-30 billion to be invested in some 200 venture funds. Where will these dollars go and how is the industry changing?