7月中国贸易顺差创历史纪录

    中国政府阻止经济放缓所采取的刺激措施使出口出现大幅反弹，在7月份，中国公布了其有史以来最大的单月贸易顺差。

    据中国海关总署（General Customs Administration）的统计显示，中国出口总值比去年同期增长了15%，比路透社（forecast）调查的预期翻了一番，而且中国对美国、欧盟、日本与东南亚等主要贸易伙伴的出口均保持了增长。

    与之相反的是，进口总值比去年同期下降1.6%，未达到3%的增长预期，其中很大一部分原因在于推动经济增长的大宗商品价格回落。在前七个月，中国炼钢用铁矿石的进口数量增长了18%，但铁矿石平均价格却下跌了15%。同样，煤炭进口量减少了2.2%，但平均价格却同比下跌了15%。分析师认为，对大宗商品抵押贷款交易的调查，也可能抑制了进口量的增长。

    最终结果是，中国七月份的贸易顺差为473亿美元，六月份的贸易顺差为316亿美元。经济学家曾预测，七月份贸易顺差将小幅收窄至280亿美元。

    这些数字再次证明，中国政府成功避免了因为经济放缓而彻底推翻之前公布的策略，至少取得了暂时性的成功。之前的策略包括实现经济再平衡、减少对出口的依赖和推动国内消费等。这些政策曾推动人民币对美元汇率贬值，再次引发了国际社会对于中国操控汇率以在国际市场获得竞争优势的担忧。但随着过去两个月经济数据的改善，人民币兑美元汇率上升了2%。

    在实现较大贸易顺差的其他国家中，德国六月份的单月出口环比增长1.1%，同比增长2.1%，整个上半年出口同比增长2.4%。上半年的经常账户盈余从去年的924亿欧元，小幅增长至935亿欧元。

    与中国一样，德国的经常账户也是令华盛顿不安的因素之一，因为美国认为两国长期保持巨大的贸易顺差，是世界经济的主要不平衡因素。与中国相反，德国没有直接控制汇率，但与其他国家使用共同货币欧元，依旧使其从中获益，因为其他国家的经常帐户较为疲弱，降低了欧元的升值压力。

    在欧元危机期间，因没有为其他欧元区经济体提供足够的支持或购买他们的商品，德国曾遭到谴责；但如今，德国与其他欧元区国家的贸易基本实现平衡。今年上半年，德国对欧元区国家出口2,086亿欧元，进口2,073亿欧元。在上半年1,062亿欧元的贸易顺差中，约四分之三与非欧盟国家有关，其他部分则与英国、波兰等未加入欧元区的欧盟成员有关。（财富中文网）

    翻译：刘进龙/汪皓

    China posted its biggest-ever monthly trade surplus in July, as government stimulus measures to stop the economy slowing down generated a big rebound in the country’s exports.

    The General Customs Administration said exports rose 15% on the year, double what was forecast by a Reuters survey, with shipments to all of China’s major trading partners–the U.S., E.U., Japan and South-East Asia–clearly up.

    Imports, by contrast, fell 1.6% on the year, missing forecasts of a 3% increase, reflecting in part lower prices for the commodities that fuel its economy. Over the first seven months of the year, China has imported 18% more iron ore for steelmaking, but the average price for it has fallen 15%. Likewise coal imports fell 2.2% by volume, at an average price down 15% from a year ago. Analysts said that an ongoing probe into commodity-backed loan deals also probably depressed import volumes.

    As a result, China’s trade surplus hit $47.3 billion in July, up from $31.6 billion in June. Economist had forecast a slight narrowing to $28 billion.

    The figures are the latest to suggest that the government succeeded in stopping a slowdown caused reversing–at least temporarily–its declared strategy of rebalancing the economy, downgrading exports and focusing more on domestic consumption. Those policies had pushed the yuan lower against the dollar, reviving fears about manipulation of the exchange rate to steal a competitive advantage in international markets. However, as the economic data have improved over the last two months, the yuan has risen by 2% against the greenback.

    In the land of the world’s other big trade surplus, Germany reported a more modest 1.1% increase in exports on the month in June, leaving them up 2.1% on the year and up 2.4% for the first of the year as a whole. The current account surplus for the first half edged up to €93.5 billion from €92.4 billion a year earlier.

    As with China, Germany’s current account is a source of frustration in Washington, which sees their huge and chronic surpluses as major imbalances in the world economy. In contrast to China, Germany has no direct control over its exchange rate, but it has still benefited in the past from sharing a currency, the euro, with other countries whose current accounts are much weaker, which reduces the upward pressure on it.

    Germany came under fire during the euro crisis for failing to do enough to support other Eurozone economies by buying their goods, but its trade with the rest of the Eurozone is now roughly in balance. In the first half of this year, it shipped €208.6 billion in exports to Eurozone countries, and imported €2o7.3 billion. Out of a trade surplus of €106.2 billion in the first half, around three quarters of that was with countries outside the E.U., while the rest was with countries such as the U.K. and Poland, which are E.U, member but which don’t use the euro.