中国制造业PMI下滑震动全球

    针对全球一些最大经济体的商业景气调查结果于上周四出炉，从中可以看出，除美国外，其他地区的经济看来都失去了增长动力。

    初步结果显示，中国和欧元区采购经理人指数（PMI）双双告跌，尽管二者仍保持着和经济增长相符的水平。

    中国制造业PMI从7月份的51.7降至50.3，跌幅超过预期，这让人们担心今年初政府刺激措施对经济的推动作用可能已经消失。PMI高于50一般代表经济处于增长状态。

    汇丰银行(HSBC)大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌在公布PMI数据的声明中说：“我们认为需要更多的政策支持来帮助巩固经济复苏。”

    这条消息造成上海和香港股市双双下跌，两市基准指数分别低收0.4%和0.7%。

    欧元区方面，一个融合制造业和服务业的综合PMI指数从7月份的53.8降至52.8，其中制造业PMI跌幅超过服务业。服务业和制造业PMI均保持在50以上，这和上周公布的经济数据多少有些差异——后者表明，第二季度欧元区经济没有出现任何增长，夏季开局低迷。

    人们通常认为PMI可以比较及时地反映经济发展状况，但欧元区PMI尚未体现出乌克兰冲突造成的经济急剧滑坡——欧元区和俄罗斯的贸易已经受到了影响，和其他东欧国家的贸易也是如此，只是程度较轻。

    金融信息供应商Markit公司指出，经历连续3个月下跌之后，其法国PMI已在50处企稳，但制造业PMI跌至46.5，创15个月新低，而且公司裁员速度也达到了6个月来的最高水平。这些数据公布后，法国股市基准指数CAC-40早盘上涨0.6%，德国DAX指数也上升了0.4%。

    日本经济的表现也好于预期。其制造业PMI从7月份的50.4升至52.4，推动日经指数上涨0.9%。Markit公司提供的数据显示，日本就业人数增速创3个月新高，产量和新订单均大幅上升。

    受增值税上调影响，近期日本经济数据一直表现糟糕，许多人都担心提高增值税可能扼杀经济复苏。不过，Markit公司经济学家艾米•布朗希尔表示：“日本经济似乎正在摆脱销售税上升的影响；17年前日本也像这样提高过增值税，但现在的日本经济显得更有韧性。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Global growth outside the U.S. appeared lost momentum in August, according to business surveys of some of the world’s largest economies published Thursday.

    The Purchasing Managers Indices for China and the Eurozone both fell, although both remained at levels consistent with economic growth, preliminary estimates showed.

    The decline in the Chinese manufacturing PMI, to 50.3 in August from 51.7 in July, was bigger than expected, raising fears that the boost to the economy from government stimulus measures earlier in the year may already have run its course. An index reading above 50 generally signifies growth.

    “We think more policy support is needed to help consolidate the recovery,” said Hongbin Qu, chief economist for China at HSBC, said in a statement accompanying the release.

    Stocks in both Shanghai and Hong Kong fell on the news, with the benchmark indexes down 0.4% and 0.7% respectively by the close.

    In the Eurozone, a composite index blending both manufacturing and services output fell to 52.8 from 53.8 in July, with the manufacturing index falling more sharply than the services one. Both remained above 50, somewhat at odds with data released last week showing that the Eurozone economy failed to grow at all in the second quarter and started the summer in weak fashion.

    Although the indices are generally seen as a reliable indicator of economic developments more or less in real time, they have failed to pick up the sharp slowdown in the Eurozone as the conflict in Ukraine has taken its toll on trade with Russia and, to a lesser extent, other eastern European countries.

    Markit noted that its French index had stabilized at 50 after three straight declines, albeit the manufacturing index fell to a 15-month low of 46.5 and companies shed jobs at the fastest rate in six months. The French CAC-40 benchmark stock index was up 0.6% by mid-morning in response, while Germany’s DAX index was up 0.4%.

    There was also a positive surprise in Japan, where the manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 50.4 in July, driving the Nikkei index up by 0.9%. Payrolls grew at the fastest rate in three months and there was a sharp rise both in output and new orders, according to index publisher Markit.

    Japan’s recent economic data have been badly distorted by a hike in value-added tax that many feared could stop the recovery in its tracks. However, Markit economist Amy Brownbill said “It would seem that the Japanese economy is recovering from the rise in the sales tax and showing more resilience than 17 years ago when a similar tax hike was implemented.”