美元会持续升值吗？

    别看了，美元正在高歌猛进。我的同事杰弗里•史密斯的观点如下：

    “美元指数(U.S. Dollar Index)衡量美元兑六种主要西方货币的走势，但不涉及人民币等新兴市场货币。第三季度该指数上涨了7.1%，是2008年市场出现恐慌行情以来增长最快的一个季度……作为主要国际储备货币，美元兑巴西雷亚尔和墨西哥比索创下了7个月新高，兑印度卢比也接近6个月来的最高点。在主要贸易伙伴国货币中，唯一没有对美元贬值的是人民币，部分原因是中国工业部门对大宗商品（以美元计价）的需求下降。”

    没错，尽管近年来许多人都警告说美联储（Fed）的政策正在摧毁美元的价值，但美元汇率却达到了金融危机以来的最高点。正如史密斯指出的那样，美元飙升的短期原因很明显，那就是美联储开始压缩债券购买规模，而日本央行则继续将储备资金注入该国银行体系，同时欧洲也在考虑启动欧洲版量化宽松政策。但除此以外，经济基本面也是美元走强的原因。同时，有理由相信这些趋势可能有利于全球经济。

    那么，除了刺激性措施的作用，美元兑其他货币的汇率为什么会上扬呢？最合理的解释是美国和世界其他地区的经济增长率存在差异。三年来，欧元区18国的经济基本处于停滞状态。最新数据表明，作为欧元区经济两大传统动力的德国和法国今年二季度不是萎缩就是持平。过去五年中，日本实际GDP增长率超过2%的时间只有四分之一。与之相比，上一季度美国4.2%的经济增长率就显得强劲得多。

    标准经济理论认为，投资者会转移到增长较快的经济体。要做到这一点，他们就得购买这个经济体的货币。就目前的全球局势而言，这就意味着美元需求量将上升，因为投资者需要买入美元，以便投资于相对强势的美国经济。

    那出口呢？有人认为，世界就要陷入一系列货币战争，原因是各国央行都在压低本国货币的价值，目的是让出口产品变得更便宜，同时提振国内经济。这种观点的逻辑基础是央行不会降低刺激性政策力度。但至少就美国来说，允许量化宽松推动低迷的日本和欧洲经济实现增长显然会让美国经济受益，尽管这样做意味着美元汇率将上升。宏观研究机构Renaissance Macro Research经济研究主管尼尔•杜塔在本周写给客户的报告中指出：“虽然美元升值让进口价格压力处于低点，而且有损出口竞争力，但美国是一个相当封闭的经济体。或者说，美元波动对进口价格和出口活动的影响相当小。全球经济增长和出口之间的弹性远远超过美元（的相对价值）。”

    换句话说，和有利的汇率环境相比，日本和欧洲经济快速增长对美国出口商以及整个美国经济更为有利。

    鉴于其他发达国家面临着和美国一样的障碍，比如人口老龄化、贫富差距加大以及工资停止增长，几乎没有理由不相信美国的经济增长速度将继续超过前者。这个因素正在推升美元，再加上其他国家和地区刚刚开始实施货币性刺激措施，今后几年美元可能继续处于王者地位。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Don’t look now, but the U.S. dollar is on a tear. Here’s my colleague Geoffrey Smith with the details:

    “The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the buck against six major western currencies but not against emerging market currencies such as China’s yuan, has risen 7.1% in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly rise since the 2008 market panic . . . the world’s premier reserve currency is also at seven-month highs against Brazil’s real and Mexico’s peso, and near a six-month high against India’s rupee. The only major trading partner it isn’t strengthening against is the yuan, partly because of weaker demand for commodities (which are priced in dollars) from a slowing Chinese industrials sector.”

    That’s right, despite the manywarnings in recent years that Fed policies are destroying the value of the dollar, the greenback hasn’t been stronger since the financial crisis. As Smith points out, the short-term reasons for the dollar’s surge is clear: the Federal Reserve is winding down its bond buying program while Japan is still pumping reserves into its banking system and Europe is considering a quantitative easing program of its own. But beyond these, there are fundamental economic reasons for the dollar’s rise, as well as reasons to believe that these trends could bode well for the global economy.

    So why, beyond stimulus measures, is the dollar gaining value against foreign currencies? The best explanation is the difference in growth rates between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Growth in the 18-member eurozone has basically been stagnant for three years now, with the most recent readings showing that the usual engines of its economy, Germany and France, shrank or stalled in the second quarter of 2014. Japan, meanwhile, has only had one quarter of real GDP growth above 2% in the past five years, which makes the U.S. economy’s latest quarterly growth reading of 4.2% look a lot better.

    Standard economic theory says that investors will flock to economies that are growing faster, and to do that, they need to buy the currency of that economy. In today’s world, that means the dollar will be in greater demand because investors will need to buy dollars to invest into the relatively strong American economy.

    But what about exports? The logic of the argument that the world is descending into a series of currency wars–whereby central banks around the world are devaluing their currency in order to make their exports cheaper and boost their domestic economies–depends on central banks not letting up on stimulus. But at least in the case of the U.S., it’s clear that the American economy would benefit from allowing QE programs to help boost the sluggish Japanese and European economies to grow, even if it means a stronger dollar. As Neil Dutta, head of Economics for Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in a note to clients this week, “While a rising dollar keeps import price pressures low and hurts export competitiveness, the US is a fairly closed economy. That is, dollar movements have a fairly small impact on import prices and export activity.” He goes on to write, “There is a much more elastic relationship between global growth and exports than the [the relative value of] the dollar.”

    In other words, It’s better for U.S. exporters, and the broader U.S. economy, that Japan and the EU are growing quickly than to have a favorable exchange rate situation.

    And with the rest of the developed world facing the same hurdles as the U.S. in terms of aging populations, growing inequality, and stagnant wage growth, there’s little reason to believe that the U.S. won’t continue to outpace the rate of growth of the rest of the developed world. With that tailwind at the dollars back, and monetary stimulus just now getting underway in other parts of the world, we could see King Dollar reigning for years to come.