比尔•格罗斯发布新投资展望：预计债券收益率最高仅3-4%

    享有盛誉的债券基金经理比尔•格罗斯加盟骏利资本（Janus Capital）后发布的第一份投资分析报告，呈现出非常悲观的基调。他的研究报告一直以荒诞不经的评论和乐观的建议著称，但上周四出炉的这份报告却让人黯然神伤。

    “我给出以下饱含严厉之爱的建议——它们有些类似我在最近几周获得的忠告：金融时代翻开新篇章，”格罗斯写道，“接受它并据此调整你的行为，那么你的未来就将是安全而有保障的，你可以期待更美好的明天。”

    投资者不能再指望有两位数增长的日子了，格罗斯预计债券收益率充其量也就不过是接近3%至4%的样子，股票收益率大约为5%至6%。尽管前景黯淡，但格罗斯承诺，在他的领导下，投资将“一帆风顺”。

    这些评论是周四格罗斯与骏利资本CEO理查德•威尔一同参加网络发布会时，基于他为骏利资本全球无限制债券基金(Janus Global Unconstrained Bond)投资者撰写的首份报告而进行的延伸阐述，该报告在网络发布会后不久即发布。

    格罗斯一改以往研究报告只谈市场的风格，他还谈论起了近期促使他离开自己创立的太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）、加盟骏利资本的一些感受。

    “我本会在那儿终老一生，” 他写道，“但慢慢地，在极度的犹豫中，我逐渐明白，到了离开的时候了。”

    积极的一面是，这一改变可以让格罗斯更全力投身于投资策略，减少管理职责，近几年有关其管理风格的负面报道持续增加。

    格罗斯突然离开太平洋投资管理公司令债券投资界震惊，并导致资金大幅流出太平洋投资旗下基金，转入其他基金。

    晨星公司（Morningstar）发布的数据显示，格罗斯此前管理的太平洋总回报基金(Pimco Total Return)上个月流出资金近235亿美元，而他目前管理的骏利资本新基金则流入6,640万美元。其他基金也得益于这一人事变动——Metropolitan West总回报基金是早期受益者之一，上个月流入资金15亿美元。

    相比格罗斯以前管理的规模一度超过2,000亿美元的巨型基金，骏利资本全球无限制债券基金仍“非常小” 。但格罗斯很乐观。

    “这留出了巨大空间，我们可以实施很多新策略，抓住很多新机会，为我的新客户提供（并希望持续提供）卓越回报，”他写道。（财富中文网）

    译者：早稻米

    Bill Gross, the renowned bond fund manger, struck a pessimistic chord in his first note to investors at his new gig at Janus Capital. His notes, usually full of silly commentary and upbeat advice, took a darker turn Thursday.

    “I have the following tough love advice–somewhat resembling the counsel given to me in recent weeks: there is a new financial era,” wrote Gross. “Accept it and modify your behavior accordingly, so that your future is safe, secure, and you look forward to a brighter tomorrow.”

    Investors can no longer count on the days of double-digit growth, Gross expects bond yields closer to 3% to 4% at best and stock gains of 5% to 6%. Despite the gloomy outlook, Gross promised there would be “smooth sailing” under his leadership.

    His added commentary came when he appeared Thursday in a webcast with Janus CEO Richard Weil, expanding on his introductory note to Janus Global Unconstrained Bond fund investors that was released shortly after the presentation.

    His remarks veered from the market-only focus of his typical notes to reflecting on recent events that led him to leave Pimco, the firm he founded, and join Janus JNS -3.92% .

    “I would have stayed to my last breath,” he wrote. “But slowly and with great hesitation, I came to understand that it was time for me to leave.”

    The change, on the positive side, allows Gross to focus more wholly on the investment strategy and less on executive duties, which had been an issue in recent years as negative headlines proliferated concerning his management style.

    Gross’ hasty exit from Pimco shook up the bond world, sending money bleeding out of Pimco funds and into other ones.

    Gross’ former Pimco Total Return fund saw nearly $23.5 billion in outflows last month, while his new Janus fund brought in $66.4 million over that same time period, according to Morningstar. Other funds also benefited from the shake up–Metropolitan West Total Return Fund was one of the early winners with $1.5 billion of in-flows last month.

    The Janus Global Unconstrained Bond fund still remains “tiny” compared to Gross’ former fund, which was worth over $200 billion at one point. But, Gross takes an optimistic tone.

    “That opens the door to a lot of new strategies and opportunities to generate outperformance for my new (and hopefully man continuing) clients,” he wrote.