中国GDP增速放缓，但无需惊慌

    第三季度，中国GDP增长率降至7.3%，高于许多分析师预计的7.2%，令人惊喜。但这仍然是走出2009年全球金融危机深渊后，中国经济出现的最慢增长率。

    受此影响，周一亚洲股市应声告跌，但原因可能跟大家想的不一样。分析师指出，交易员抛售股票或许是因为，尽管中国GDP增长率滑落至历史低点，但仍然超过预期，从而降低了中国政府采取大规模刺激措施的可能性。换句话说，新的GDP数字长期来看对中国是好消息。

    香港咨询机构龙洲经讯（Gavekal Dragonomics）的中国经济学家陈龙写道：“现在中国政府方面似乎倾向于接受经济增速放慢，并更加注重控制金融风险。”

    2009年，中国政府斥6000亿元巨资应对金融危机，在之后的几年，经济学界、建言者一直希望中国能够改善巨额负债和不良贷款。但在那之后，只要刚刚出现经济减速的苗头,中国政府仍会通过各种刺激措施为经济体系注入资金。就在今年春天，中国政府还出台了提振经济的刺激措施，包括建设保障房和修建铁路项目。而现在，中国政府看来更倾向于接受降低杠杆水平和推动改革带来的必然后果——增长放缓。

    野村证券（Nomura Securities）预估，由于楼市长期低迷，今年中国的GDP少增长了1.4个百分点。同时，刺激经济的难度比以往更大。周二，野村经济学家在一份致客户的报告中指出：“宽松政策的效力减弱，这可能是因为房地产市场回调，许多上游行业产能过剩以及公司负债率过高给经济带来了巨大阻力。”

    中国政府允许经济增速略微下滑(今年的GDP增长目标是7.5%)，这并不很令人吃惊。今年初，国家总理李克强公布了这个目标；其他政府官员立即表示，就算没有达到这个目标也不要紧。财政部长楼继伟就曾对记者表示，7.2%的增长率应该足以创造就业机会并控制通货膨胀。

    本月，中国政府再次表示，经济增长步伐放慢将是中国短期前景的一部分。作为两大政府智囊机构之一，社科院对政策的影响很大。该机构估计，今年中国GDP将增长7.3%，明年的增速只有7%。这表明，如果经济增速放慢有助于改善中国的金融情况，可以减轻大量地方政府债务并改善刺激性项目回报率低的状况，中国政府可能会对这个结果满意。

    降低GDP增长目标后，地方政府就会有更多的空间来推行改革，包括那些针对重污染行业的改革措施，这些行业造成的空气污染使中国面临一个造价高昂又困难重重的任务。但同时，降低GDP增长目标会削弱中国在投资者眼中的吸引力，研究机构世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）周一预测，2020-2025年中国GDP增速可能降至3.9%，该预估比其他研究机构的预估更加悲观；但这也表明，越来越多的人开始认为中国这个世界第二大经济体的增长速度会出现大幅滑坡。（财富中文网）

    China’s gross domestic product growth fell to 7.3% in the third quarter, a nice surprise for analysts expecting the figure to be 7.2% but still the slowest rate since the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.

    The news sent Asian stocks lower on Monday, but not for the reason you might expect. Analysts said traders were likely selling because the better-than-expected GDP figure, albeit low historically, dims the prospects for a large government stimulus in China. In other words, the GDP number was good news for China in the long-term.

    “Beijing now seems inclined to accept the growth slowdown, and focus more on getting financial risks under control,” wrote Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong.

    Advisors and economists have been hoping for years China would mend its massive debts and bad loans after the government’s wasteful $600 billion response to the financial crisis in 2009. Instead, that initial boost was followed by a variety of stimulus measures pumping money into the system at the earliest hint of a slowdown. As late as this spring, the government unveiled spending measures to boost the economy, from low-income housing development to additional railway spending. Beijing now looks more inclined to accept lower growth as the inevitable result of trimming leverage and enacting reforms.

    In China, where a protracted housing downturn is lopping off 1.4 percentage points from GDP growth this year, according to estimates by Nomura, it’s also been more difficult than before to give a jolt to the system. “The reduced efficacy of policy easing may be related to the powerful headwinds coming from the property market correction, the overcapacity 
in many upstream industries and an over-leveraged corporate sector,” Nomura economists said in a note to clients Tuesday.

    China allowing GDP growth to slid a little—the country’s target growth rate for this year is 7.5%—shouldn’t be a big surprise. Earlier this year, when Premier Li Keqiang released the target figure, other officials almost immediately said it would be just fine if China missed it. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told reporters back then that 7.2% growth would be enough to create jobs and control inflation.

    This month China’s government again indicated that lower growth is part of China’s near-term future. One of the top two government think tanks, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which has strong influence on policy, estimated that GDP growth would hit 7.3% this year and just 7% in 2015—a signal that China may be content with lower growth if it helps shore up the country’s finances suffering from big local government debts and low-returning stimulus projects.

    Lower GDP targets allow local Chinese governments more latitude to follow through on reforms, such as those targeting heavy-polluting industries responsible for the country’s costly and embarrassing air pollution. At the same time, they take some gloss off the country in the eyes of investors: the Conference Board, a research group, said on Monday China’s GDP growth may fall to 3.9% in 2020-2025, a much more pessimistic forecast than other researchers’, but one that reflects growing thinking that growth in the world’s second largest economy is bound for big-time slowdowns.