美联储结束巨额购债计划，量化宽松时代画上句号

    周三，美联储（Federal Reserve）发布声明，宣布将结束其持续多年的债券购买计划。这项旨在刺激经济的举措给经济和金融市场带来了一系列影响，引发无数争论，现在终于即将画上句号。

    随着市场状况不断改善，对持续低通胀的担忧减弱，失业率也在以稳定地速度下降，美联储最终决定结束第三轮购买抵押贷款和财政部担保债券。自2008年启动量化宽松策略以来，美联储的资产负债表至今已膨胀至4.48万亿美元。

    与此同时，美联储计划继续持有其证券，并将所持到期证券的本金重新投资于自己的机构担保证券，同时会在拍卖时对到期的国库债券进行展期。显然，通过持有债券余额，美联储希望能够“在经济中保持具有适应性的金融市场状况”，而无需进行新的购债安排。

    这份声明是由美联储的政策制定机构——公开市场委员会（Open Market Committee）在结束为期两天的会议后所发布。很多分析师都希望能从中挖掘线索，推断美联储将在何时开始加息。委员会继续将联邦基金利率的目标范围设立在0%至0.25%之间，这意味着目前整体经济内的利率仍将保持在一贯的低水平位置。

    在声明中，美联储对经济前景十分乐观，表示自9月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议以来，“就业市场状况已得到进一步改善，岗位增长稳定，失业率下降。”

    声明指出，“总体来说，一系列的就业市场指标显示，劳动力资源利用不充分的情况正在逐渐消失。”

    对于经济增长是否归功于美联储的量化宽松计划，目前仍存在争议。自量宽启动以来，失业率已经从2009年10月份（购债计划开始的一年后）10%的高位下降至上个月的5.9%。与此同时，根据国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）的数据，今年美国国内生产总值预计将增长2.8%，远超2008年0.3%的负增长。

    “从投资和经济的角度来看，没有量宽比继续量宽更好，虽然短期来说会造成一定的波动性。”嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）的首席投资策略利兹•安•松德斯表示，“至少，我们可以考察经济能否在自身引擎的驱动下运作，股市的表现也将与营收的表现更为贴近，而不是被量宽牵着鼻子走。”

    松德斯认为，和第一轮及第二轮量化宽松所不同，第三轮量宽令市场信心面临考验。

    由于规模空前的资产购买计划，美联储的资产负债表不断膨胀。“资产负债表规模越大，退出就越发困难。”她解释道。

    美联储目前还无需面临退出投资的后果，并且表示至少在委员会开始再次加息之前，不会调整其资产负债表。即便如此，在第三轮量宽之后，市场难免波动，情况会和前两次计划结束时一样。

    The Federal Reserve will bring to an end its long-running bond purchase program, according to a statement released Wednesday, concluding a stimulus exercise that has attracted intense debate as to its impact on the economy and the financial markets.

    Improving market conditions, including diminished fears of persistently low inflation and a steadily descending jobless rate, led the Fed to make the call to put an end to its third round of purchases of mortgage- and treasury-backed bonds. To date, the Fed has amassed a balance sheet of $4.48 trillion since it started its quantitative easing strategy in November 2008.

    The Fed plans to hold onto its securities and will reinvest principal payments from its holdings into its own agency-backed securities and will roll over maturing Treasury securities at auction. It is hoping that by holding its bond balance, it will “help maintain accommodative financial conditions” in the economy without needing to continue with new purchases.

    The Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee made the statement at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday. Many analysts were hoping for further insight into when the Fed may start boosting interest rates. The committee stands by its 0% to 0.25% target range for the federal-funds rate, which means that interest rates across the broader economy will remain at their consistently low levels for now.

    In its statement, the Fed was remarkably upbeat about the economy’s prospects, saying that since the Federal Open Market Committee last met in September, “labor market conditions have “improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate.”

    “On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing,” the statement said.

    Whether or not the economy’s gains can be attributed to the Fed’s quantitative easing program is a matter of debate. Since its inception, the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.9% last month from a high of 10% in October 2009, a year after the bond-buying began. Meanwhile, U.S. gross domestic product is expected to pick up to 2.8% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, compared to 0.3% decline in 2008.

    “We’re better off from an investment and economic perspective without QE than if it had continued, even if there is short-term volatility,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “We can at least see if the economy can operate under its own engine power, and we will probably see the stock market behave more in-line with earnings rather than gyrating around QE.”

    Sonders said that unlike the first and second rounds of quantitative easing, the third round put downward pressure on confidence.

    “The bigger the balance sheet, the harder to exit,” she said, referring to the growth in the Fed’s balance sheet due to its unprecedented asset-purchase program.

    The Fed still doesn’t have to face the prospect of exiting its investments just yet, and has said it won’t change its balance sheet until at least the committee begins raising interest rates again. Even so, there may be some volatility in the markets following the end of QE3, much like after the end of the first two programs.