油价直线下跌，几家欢乐几家愁

    上周四，由于石油产量占全球总产量1/3的石油输出国组织（Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries，OPEC，又称欧佩克）未能就眼下石油供应过剩的应对之策达成一致，国际油价跌至五年多来的最低位。

    在被宣传为欧佩克数十年来最重要的会议上，该组织成员国部长们同意，将自行设定的产量上限维持在每天3000万桶，但互相承诺将更严格的遵守所商定的限额。

    过去，此类承诺往往无济于事。市场对此的反应是，基准原油期货合约价下跌近8％，跌破了69美元。油价降至2009年8月以来的最低位。自今年夏天以来，油价下跌超过30％，仅11月就下跌了13％。

    美国的车主们这下赚到了，美国的油品零售价已跌破每加仑3美元。同样受益的，还有航空公司、物流公司、塑料制品和化工企业，上述企业在燃料或油基原料上花费巨大。油价下跌对零售商而言也是好消息，后者有望从消费者可支配收入增加中受益。

    但对页岩油行业而言，这就不是什么好消息了。随着油价稳步下跌，页岩油行业至少有部分投资将赔钱。

    通讯社援引欧佩克秘书长阿卜杜拉•巴德里（Abdalla El-Badri）称，上周四的决定，实际上确定了欧佩克明年上半年的产量。 若果真如此，那全球产量减少将完全来自美国边际油田减产。

    此决定的赢家是沙特阿拉伯，相比委内瑞拉和伊朗等较贫困的欧佩克成员国，沙特阿拉伯更有财力与美国石油生产商打持久战。

    路透社（Reuters）称，在结束近五小时的会谈后，沙特石油部长阿里•纳伊米（Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi）面带微笑的表示：“这是个伟大的决定。”

    总部位于巴黎的国际能源署（International Energy Agency）称，10月份，欧佩克12个成员国的石油日产量为3066万桶，因此，即便他们完全遵守自身限额，其减产仍不足以使供给降到与全球石油需求一致的水平。国际能源署认为，明年全球石油需求为每天2930万桶。

    欧佩克部分成员国部长已明确表示，希望用较低的油价，阻止美国页岩油产量上升。来自美国页岩以及其它“非欧佩克”来源的石油供应，已经远超今年已明显放缓的全球经济的需求。

    上周三，阿拉伯联合酋长国（United Arab Emirates）石油部长Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui向《金融时报》（Financial Times）表示，市场会自我调整，“我们没什么好恐慌的”。

    不过，那些需要高油价来平衡政府预算的国家可不这么看。欧佩克的决定一出，俄罗斯卢布应声跌至历史新低，美元兑卢布首次跌破1:48，而欧元兑卢布更是首次跌破1:60。俄罗斯基准RTS股指下跌近2.1％，几乎创下五年来的新低。

    俄罗斯要平衡自身预算，需要石油价格超过每桶100美元。但俄罗斯Interfax通讯社称，俄财政部高级官员马克西姆•欧雷希金表示，鉴于欧佩克的决定，明年油价每桶80美元的预测都属“比较乐观”。（财富中文网）

    译者：Hunter

    审稿：李翔

    Oil prices fell to their lowest level in over five years Thursday as the cartel that produces one third of the world’s output failed to agree on measures to tackle the current glut.

    In what had been billed as their most important meeting in decades, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to keep their self-imposed output ceiling at 30 million barrels a day, but promised each other they would cheat less on their agreed quotas.

    Such promises have rarely held in the past, and the markets reacted by driving the price of the benchmark crude futures contract down nearly 8% to below $69. Oil hasn’t been that cheap since August 2009. Prices have now fallen by over 30% since the summer, and by 13% in November alone.

    That’s going to make a Happy Thanksgiving for drivers, who are already seeing pump prices of under $3/gallon in the U.S., as well as for airlines, logistics companies, plastics and chemicals companies, all of whom have huge outlays on fuel and oil-based feedstocks. It’s also good news for retailers, who will hope to benefit from the fact that consumers have more disposable income.

    But it’s less good news for the shale oil industry, which may find at least some of its investments losing money as the oil price heads firmly lower.

    Thursday’s decision effectively sets the level of OPEC output for the whole of the first half of next year, news agencies quoted Abdalla El-Badri, OPEC’s Secretary-General, as saying. If that’s true, then any reduction in world output will likely be driven by marginal fields in the U.S.

    The decision is a victory for Saudi Arabia, which can better afford to play a long game with U.S. producers than its poorer colleagues in OPEC, such as Venezuela and Iran.

    “It was a great decision,” Reuters quoted Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi as saying as he emerged smiling after around five hours of talks.

    According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the cartel’s 12 members are currently produced 30.66 million barrels a day in October, so even if they were completely faithful about sticking to their quotas, they still wouldn’t cut output by enough to bring it into line with global demand for their oil, which the IEA puts at 29.3 million b/d next year.

    Some of the OPEC ministers have made no secret of their desire to use a lower price to stop the rise in oil production from U.S. shale, which along with other “non-OPEC” sources of supply is running way ahead of demand from a world economy that has palpably slowed down this year.

    The United Arab Emirates’ oil minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui told the Financial Times Wednesday that the market would correct itself and that “there is nothing to cause us to panic.”

    That wasn’t quite the view from countries that need a higher oil price to balance their budgets. The Russian ruble fell to a new all-time low on the news, with the dollar crashing through 48 rubles and the euro topping 60, both for the first time ever. The benchmark RTS stock index fell 2.1% close to a new five-year low.

    Russia needs an oil price over $100/bbl to balance its budget. But the news agency Interfax quoted Maxim Oreshkin, a senior finance ministry official, as saying that even a forecast of $80 was “moderately optimistic” for the next years, in view of OPEC’s decision.