油价下跌中逆势掘金的3大秘笈

    本文是和《Money》杂志的合作内容。原文最初刊登于Money.com网站。

    能源价格受到巨大冲击的原因往往是经济严重失衡——比如中东局势紧张带来对石油供给的恐慌；或者经济衰退造成需求萎缩，使得能源价格直线下降。

    但这次油价暴跌（从夏天的每桶105美元降至最近的约60美元，创2009年以来最低）并非全球危机所致。而是由于对欧洲、日本和中国经济增长的担忧，以及沙特、俄罗斯、利比亚和美国石油产量的增加。

    别指望生产商会减产，特别是在美国——在那里，蓬勃发展的页岩油行业在油价下跌后仍可盈利。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师预计，2015年石油产量和消费量都将上升，但供给的增长将超过需求。这应该会进一步压低油价。以下将为大家介绍如何才能保护自己的投资组合并从石油供给过剩中获利。

    你的行动计划

    降低新兴市场配置。投资公司Osterweis首席执行官马修•柏勒指出，俄罗斯和伊朗需要油价保持在每桶100美元以上，来避免出现大量预算赤字。沙特则一直强硬地拒绝减产。基金公司Forester Capital Management负责人汤姆•弗雷斯特说，如果沙特继续这样做，“其他新兴市场就可能受到不利影响”。这是一个把新兴市场投资份额降到5%的充分理由。

    押注运输股。经济学家爱德华•亚德尼认为，由于每加仑汽油价格预计将比2014年的高点低30美分，“交通运输行业将出现巨额利润。”这几年铁路股一直高歌猛进。因此，投资可以向较便宜的卡车运输企业或者航空公司倾斜，后者将从油价下跌和消费支出增长中受益。SPDR标普交通运输交易所交易基金（SPDR S&P Transportation ETF）的三分之二都投入了这些行业。

    保留低油耗汽车概念股。定价网站TrueCar总裁约翰•克拉夫茨克说：“汽油价格下跌时，立即就会看到人们在选择汽车方面所受的影响。”汽车厂商已经开始打折销售超级省油的汽车，比如，福特（Ford）福克斯电动车的售价最近下跌了6000美元。克拉夫茨克还预计，使用汽油发动机的中型和紧凑型轿车很快就会报出“极为美妙的价格”，它们每加仑汽油能跑30多英里（约50公里）。其他人可能会选择更大的——SUV重新受到关注。但逆市操作也许能带来长线收益。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：Vera Han

    This post is in partnership with Money. The article below was originally published at Money.com.

    Big jolts to energy prices are often caused by major economic imbalances—like rising tensions in the Middle East setting off supply scares. Or a dropoff in demand from a recession, causing prices to plummet.

    This time there is no global crisis behind crude’s slide (from $105 a barrel in the summer to around $60 recently, its lowest level since 2009). Instead to blame: fresh worries about growth in Europe, Japan, and China, set against rising production in Saudi Arabia, Russia, Libya, and the U.S.

    Don’t expect producers to turn off the spigot just yet, especially in the U.S., where the burgeoning fracking industry can still profit at lower prices. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict output and use will both grow in 2015, but supply will outpace demand. That should push oil down further. Here’s how you can protect your portfolio and profit from the oil glut.

    Your Action Plan

    Ease off emerging markets.Russia and Iran need oil at or above $100 a barrel to avoid major budget deficits, says Matthew Berler, CEO of investment firm Osterweis. The Saudis have been playing hardball by refusing to cut production, and if they continue, “other parts of the emerging markets could get hit,” says Tom Forester, head of Forester Capital Management. Good reason to cut emerging markets to 5% of your portfolio.

    Bet on shipping.With gas expected to stay 30¢ a gallon below 2014 highs, “the transportation industry is getting a big windfall,” says economist Edward Yardeni. Railroad stocks have been on a tear for years. So lean toward cheaper truckers and airlines, which benefit from sinking prices and rising spending. Two-thirds of SPDR S&P Transportation ETF is in those industries.

    Save on a gas sipper.“When gas prices go down, you see an immediate impact on vehicle choice,” says John Krafcik, president of pricing site TrueCar. Automakers have already begun discounting super-fuel-¬efficient cars—the Ford Focus Electric recently fell $6,000—and Krafcik expects to soon see “fantastic deals” on gas-engine midsize and compact sedans, which can get 30-plus mpg. Everyone else may be buying big—the SUV is back!—but a contrarian play may pay off in the long haul.