卢布贬值：典型的“货币崩盘”

    对于俄罗斯经济而言，2014年很可能成为最糟糕的一年。它跟输掉了中期选举的美国民主党人，和遭到黑客攻击的索尼影视娱乐公司（Sony Entertainment Pictures）可谓难兄难弟。

    雪上加霜的是，作为俄罗斯经济支柱的石油业又面临价格暴跌，造成俄罗斯外汇流失而进一步妨碍了经济增长。这种局面推动卢布迅速贬值。本周一，卢布重挫11%，迫使俄罗斯央行加息650个基点，但俄罗斯在2015年仍将难逃严重而痛苦的经济衰退。

    占领克里米亚和乌克兰冲突后，俄罗斯遭到制裁，再加上油价不断滑落，加息并没有让投资者感到满意。俄罗斯央行宣布上述决定后，卢布又下跌了8%。

    这次卢布贬值来的突然，而且极具破坏性。周二，全球经济研究机构High Frequency Economics首席经济学家卡尔•温伯格在写给客户的报告中称，卢布的直线下坠“不可逆转”。他认为，目前的情况是典型的“货币崩盘”，诱因既有遭到制裁和油价下滑等经济因素，也有金融因素，比如俄罗斯央行通过增发货币来帮助国有企业俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）偿还以外币为主的债务。

    更严重的问题在于俄罗斯的私营和国有企业共持有6700亿美元外币债务，约占俄罗斯总经济规模的三分之一，如果卢布继续下挫，俄罗斯公司将无法偿还这些债务。温伯格写道：

    为了偿还外债，俄罗斯借款人需要支付的卢布在一夜之间增加了20%，和本月初相比上升了50%，和11月初相比则提高了90%……俄罗斯人负担的外债有效利率超过6000%，这足以把任何经济体置于死地。

    通常，如果有国家陷入俄罗斯这样的境地，它们就会向国际货币基金组织（IMF）求援。后者则会为经济改革为条件为其提供资金并进行债务重组。然而，就像俄勒冈大学（University of Oregon）经济学家蒂姆•杜伊在他的文章中所说，很难想象IMF会出面帮助俄罗斯这样的国际社会“弃儿”，而弗拉基米尔•普京也很难屈从于西方的任何改革要求。

    那么，俄罗斯的货币危机对美国有何影响呢？很难下定论。俄罗斯经济衰退不会对美国经济产生多大影响，因为两国间的贸易往来非常少。但毫无疑问，俄罗斯眼前的危机至少部分源于美国的外交政策。我们看到的这场经济灾难是美国与欧洲针对俄罗斯对乌克兰采取的行动所造成的。

    现在的问题是，经济上的困难是会迫使俄罗斯在东欧做出让步，还是会让它变本加厉。温伯格的担心之一是普京会授意俄罗斯公司拒不偿还外债。对已经向俄罗斯企业提供贷款的欧洲和美国银行及投资者来说，这将是个坏消息，而且可能让俄罗斯的不稳定的金融局势蔓延到其他新兴经济体，同时影响已经摇摇欲坠的欧盟经济。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：Vera Han

    The Russian economy was already in the running for having the worst year in 2014, sandwiched somewhere between Congressional Democrats and Sony Entertainment Pictures.

    Then the price of oil—the commodity upon which the Russian economy is built—began to fall sharply, draining the nation’s economy of foreign money and crimping its growth. This dynamic drove the ruble sharply lower, culminating in an 11% drop on Monday, which forced Russia’s central bank to raise interest rates by a whopping 650 basis points, all but assuring a deep and painful recession in 2015.

    But with strict sanctions in place against Russian companies—in response to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and hostilities with Ukraine earlier this year—and the continuous fall in oil prices, the interest rate hike did not satisfy traders, who sent the the ruble tumbling another 8% following the announcement.

    The fall of the ruble has been swift and devastating. Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, referred to the currency’s plummet as “an unrecoverable spiral” in a note to clients on Tuesday. He argues that what we are seeing now is a classic “currency collapse,” brought on by both economic factors like sanctions and falling oil prices as well as financial factors like the Russian central bank printing money to help state-owned oil company Rosneft cover its debt denominated in foreign currencies.

    What makes the situation in Russia that much worse is that the nation’s companies, both private and state-owned, hold $670 billion in debt denominated in foreign currencies. This debt is about one-third the size of the entire Russian economy, and it will become impossible for Russian companies to service it if the ruble continues to fall. Writes Weinberg:

    The amount of rubles local borrowers have to give up to pay off foreign debt obligations just increased by 20 percent overnight, by 50 percent since the start of this month, and by 90% since the start of November…. The effective interest rate on foreign borrowing for Russians is over 6000%, enough to kill any economy.

    Normally, when countries find themselves in a situation like Russia’s, they turn to the IMF, which would provide funding and debt restructuring in exchange for the enactment of economic reforms. But as University of Oregon economist Tim Duy writes, it’s tough to see either the IMF swooping in to help an international pariah like Russia or Vladimir Putin submitting to any reforms imposed by the West.

    So, how will Russia’s currency crisis affect the U.S.? It’s tough to say for sure. A recession in Russia won’t have much of an effect on the American economy, as the two nations conduct very little trade with each other. But make no mistake, the crisis in Russia today is at least partially a result of the diplomatic policies of the United States. We are seeing the kind of economic misery the U.S. and Europe aimed to inflict on Russia as a result of its aggression in Ukraine.

    The question now is whether the economic pain will convince Russia to back down, or double down, in Eastern Europe. Weinberg, for one, worries that Putin will instruct Russian companies to renege on their foreign obligations. This could spell bad news for banks and investors across Europe and the U.S. that have loaned money to Russian companies, and it could allow Russia’s financial instability to infect other emerging markets and the already shaky E.U. economy.