巴菲特接班人2014年跑输大盘

    “奥马哈先知”沃伦•巴菲特钦点的接班人可能并没有他本人那么神奇。

    2014年，托德•康姆斯和特德•韦施勒显然都未能跑赢大盘。康姆斯差得最多，其投资组合2014年似乎略有下降，跌了0.3％。巴菲特有句名言：他投资的头号原则是不要赔钱。据说他的第二项原则是：不要忘记自己的头号原则。

    韦施勒的表现好一些。其投资组合上涨了6.7％。不过，这个成绩不足以胜过标普500指数，该指数2014年分红前上涨了11％以上。（《财富》计算康姆斯和韦施勒的投资回报也是采用分红前的数据。）这是康姆斯和韦施勒加盟巴菲特的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司以来，头一年出现两人均未跑赢大盘的情况。

    去年四月，巴菲特在致伯克希尔股东的年度信中，盛赞这两位经理人的表现。巴菲特曾暗示，待到他离开伯克希尔，康姆斯和韦施勒很可能接管该公司大部分股票投资组合。巴菲特当时在信中写道，康姆斯和韦施勒已经连续两年“轻松”跑赢大盘，并胜过巴菲特本人的投资业绩。

    可惜两人未能获得三连冠。对康姆斯的投资业绩拖累最大的，是芝加哥桥梁钢铁公司，这也是他在2014年伊始最重仓持有的个股。这家总部位于荷兰、专注于油气行业的建筑公司，2014年股价跌去了一半。另一个拖康姆斯后腿的，是媒体公司维亚康姆，其股价在2014年下跌了近15％。康姆斯选择的其它股票表现都不错，比如国防承包商通用动力公司和信用卡公司维萨，在2014年分别增长了44％和17％。但是，总体而言，其投资组合还是未升反降。

    韦施勒2014年最失策的选择是通用汽车。由于与点火开关相关的大规模召回，通用汽车的股价去年下跌了15％。

    巴菲特自身的许多投资2014年也表现不佳。伯克希尔重仓持有的IBM公司，去年股价下跌了12％以上。伯克希尔还持有价值40亿美元的埃克森美孚股票，而过去半年，该公司股价已下跌7％。此外，巴菲特称自己买入英国连锁超市乐购的股票“大错特错”，去年该公司股价下跌了50％。不过，巴菲特和伯克希尔最重仓持有的大型银行富国银行，去年一年股价上涨了24％。

    伯克希尔的股东似乎并不关心巴菲特——以及康姆斯或韦施勒——管理这家保险企业集团1000多亿美元股票投资组合的能力。伯克希尔的股价2014年上涨了27％。诚然，经过多年收购，伯克希尔的盈亏更多的取决于旗下公司的业绩，而非其股票市场投资组合的回报。伯克希尔旗下企业的规模也越来越大，其中包括铁路巨头BNSF公司以及食品公司亨氏集团。

    巴菲特和伯克希尔公司未回复对本文置评的请求。

    巴菲特经常将伯克希尔的年度账面价值表现与标普500指数的表现作比较。去年，伯克希尔公司的5年间账面价值有史以来首次跑输标普500指数。不过，与所有公司一样，伯克希尔公司的账面价值在一定程度上是会计规则的产物，或许并非公司业绩的最佳指标。

    伯克希尔未正式披露其投资回报，或每位投资经理的投资回报。不过，与其他大型资产管理公司一样，伯克希尔每季度会披露自身持有的股票。《财富》据此信息计算出康姆斯和韦施勒的投资回报。该数字未反映两人在第四季度对自身投资组合做出的调整，因为伯克希尔尚未公布相关数据。不过，此调整不会对投资回报数字有太大影响。去年，我们做了一篇关于伯克希尔两位新星——康姆斯和韦施勒——的报道，文中就采用了同样的方法，来计算两人2014年的投资业绩。

    直到2014年，康姆斯和韦施勒的业绩记录都难以超越。2013年，康姆斯的投资组合飙升了51％。自康姆斯加盟伯克希尔至去年第二季度，康姆斯的投资组合攀升了116％。韦施勒比康姆斯晚一年加入伯克希尔，截止去年年中，韦施勒的投资组合共上涨了81％。

    去年，巴菲特在致伯克希尔股东的年度信中表示，康姆斯和韦施勒的投资业绩超过了他本人，并开玩笑称，如果这种“丢脸的情况”继续下去，“我将别无选择，只能闭口不谈他们两人。”今年，巴菲特有另一个理由对二人避而不谈。（财富中文网）

    译者：Hunter

    审稿：李翔

    Warren Buffett’s hand-picked successors may turn out to be more ordinary than the Oracle of Omaha.

    Todd Combs and Ted Weschler both appear to have failed to beat the market in 2014. Combs missed the mark by the most. His portfolio appears to have fallen slightly, down 0.3%, in 2014. Buffett famously said that his No. 1 rule of investing is to never lose money. His second rule, the legend goes, is not to forget Rule No. 1.

    Weschler did better. His picks rose 6.7%. Still, that wasn’t enough to best the S&P 500, which was up by just over 11%, before dividends, in 2014. (Fortune calculated the returns of Combs and Weschler before dividends as well.) It was the first year both Combs and Weschler lagged the market index since they joined Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

    Last April, Buffett touted the managers’ performance in his annual letter to Berkshire BRK.A 0.26% shareholders. He wrote that both Combs and Weschler, who Buffett has indicated are likely to take over managing the bulk of Berkshire’s massive stock market portfolio when he leaves the company, had “handily” beaten the market, as well as Buffett’s own performance, for the second year in a row.

    The managers will not be able to claim a three-peat. The biggest drag on Combs’ performance was Chicago Bridge & Iron CBI -1.85% , which was his biggest holding coming into 2014. The share price of the Netherlands-based construction company, which specializes in the oil and gas industry, was halved in 2014. Media company Viacom VIAB 0.32% , down nearly 15% for the year, was another laggard for Combs. Combs’ other picks did well, like defense contractor General Dynamics GD -0.08% and credit card company Visa V 0.29% , up 44% and 17%, respectively. But that wasn’t enough to push his portfolio above water for the year.

    Weschler’s big miss in 2014 was General Motors GM -1.65% . Shares of GM dropped 15% last year, amid massive recalls related to its ignition switches.

    A number of Buffett’s own investments also didn’t fare too well in 2014. Shares of IBM IBM 0.24% , one of Berkshire’s largest holdings, fell by just over 12% last year. ExxonMobil’s stock XOM -0.37% , of which Berkshire holds $4 billion worth, has fallen 7% in the past six months. Buffett called his purchase of shares of U.K. supermarket chain Tesco, which were down 50% last year, a “big mistake.” But Buffett’s, and Berkshire’s, largest holding, mega-bank Wells Fargo WFC -0.38% , was up 24% last year.

    Berkshire shareholders don’t seem concerned about the ability of Buffett—or Combs or Weschler, for that matter—to manage the insurance conglomerate’s $100 billion-plus stock portfolio. The company’s shares rose 27% in 2014. Admittedly, after years of acquisitions, Berkshire’s bottom line has more to do with the performance of the increasingly large companies it owns—including, for instance, railroad giant BNSF and Heinz—and less to do with the returns of its stock market portfolio.

    Buffett and Berkshire did not return a request for comment for this story.

    Buffett regularly compares the annual performance of Berkshire’s book value to the S&P 500. Last year, the company’s book value underperformed the S&P for a five-year period for the first time in Berkshire’s history. But Berkshire’s book value, like all companies, is in part a product of accounting rules, and perhaps not the best indicator of the company’s performance.

    Berkshire doesn’t officially disclose its investment returns or those of its individual managers. But, like other large asset managers, it discloses its holdings each quarter. Fortune calculated the investment returns of Combs and Weschler based on that information. The returns do not include any changes the two managers made to their holdings in the fourth quarter, which Berkshire has yet to disclose, but those adjustments will not change the figures much. We used the same methodology to crunch Combs and Weschler’s investment performance in 2014 that we used in an article on the two Berkshire up-and-comers last year.

    Up until 2014, Combs and Weschler’s track record had been hard to beat. Combs’ portfolio was up by an astounding 51% in 2013. Through the second quarter of last year, his portfolio was up 116% since joining Berkshire. Weschler, who joined Berkshire a year later, was up 81% through the middle of last year.

    In Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire shareholders last year, after saying that the investments of Combs and Weschler had outperformed his own, Buffett joked that if the ”humiliating comparisons” continue, “I’ll have no choice but to cease talking about them.” This year, Buffett has another reason to stay mum.