普华永道董事长：要成为超级大国，印度需要过三道坎

    本周，美国总统奥巴马将结束对印度为期三天的访问，现在近距离观察这个国家或许正合时宜。未来两年，印度或许将成为全世界增长最快的大型经济体。虽然面临严峻的挑战，但印度仍有绝佳的机会实现让12.5亿国民共同繁荣的承诺。为了达到这一目标，印度政府和商界必须精诚合作，共同应对各种挑战，充分实现其经济增长潜力。

    印度若想使其经济拥有一个光明的未来，并养活其庞大的人口，就必须保持9%的年均GDP增长速度，进而在未来20年内成为10万亿美元经济体。为什么是10万亿？因为低于这个水平，印度就无法保障其社会与经济的未来。事实上，未来20年，随着人口的快速增长，印度每年必须创造1000万至1200万个工作岗位。

    印度的私营部门有机会创造就业，并拉动经济发展。根据普华永道会计事务所2015年对印度CEO所做的调查， 73%的CEO预计在未来12个月将增加员工人数，这一比例高于其他任何国家。62%的CEO对公司在未来12个月的增长前景非常有信心——远远高于39%的全球平均水平。最后，84%的CEO相信，相比三年前，自己的公司现在有更多发展机会——该比例同样超过其他国家。这种信心来源于6亿新兴中产阶级为整个国家带来的长期发展前景，以及纳伦德拉•莫迪去年五月份高票当选印度总理所产生的催化效应。

    但创造就业和发展经济，仅靠私营部门不可能实现。莫迪领导的新政府必须与商界精诚合作，推行必要的改革，促进国家经济增长和发展——但在这方面，它将面临三个主要挑战：

    首先，印度的教育系统面临一个重大挑战。虽然印度最顶级的学院可以培养出优秀的人才，但大多数小学和中学毕业生能力不足。而且最近的全国普查显示，学生在校的阅读水平在持续下降，这对于印度而言并非好兆头，将使得它难以培养出填补新工作岗位所需的熟练劳动力。未来二十年，印度必须为每年新增的七百万儿童提供高质量的正规教育，才能满足国家对熟练工人的需求。按照传统的教育策略很难实现这一目标，因为印度GDP中仅有3%被用于教育，而世界其他国家的平均水平则超过6%。

    很显然，改革教育体制将是印度政府的工作之一，但公司也必须发挥自己的作用，需要与政府合作打造一个强大的管道，以不断输出接受过教育的技术型人才。国家技能发展公司近期促进技能培养的努力，便是为培养熟练工人进行的一次尝试。

    其次，按照传统的线性方式，印度经济将无法实现充分的增长。提高双边贸易和投资，当然是奥巴马和莫迪重点磋商的议题之一。美国的核能公司一直无法在印度开展业务，上周末，双方停滞多年的核能谈判取得突破。但这还远远不够。公共和私营领域的贸易与投资必须将效率与创新作为核心。这需要能够推动技术外溢，进而带动创新的外国直接投资。普华永道近期的调查显示，未来二十年，印度政府必须大力推动创新和研发，将其研发投入在GDP的占比从0.8%提高到2.4%，才有可能实现9%的增长目标。

    对于印度的CEO们来说，这不是什么新闻。印度的商界领袖对于妨碍创新、研发和外国投资的各种挑战非常担忧。这些问题包括贿赂、腐败、不稳定的能源成本和关键技能的缺失。普华永道调查的印度CEO中，有82%表示政府的首要任务应该是确保充足的基础设施，但有68%的受访者认为政府在这方面并不称职。

    最后，吸引外国投资面临严峻的挑战，印度的监管政策、腐败问题和亟需大规模升级的基础设施，令外国公司非常谨慎。为了提高投资者的信心，莫迪向外国政府和投资者展开魅力攻势。截至本月底，上任不足一年（任期五年）的莫迪访问或接待的外国领导人包括美国、澳大利亚、巴西、中国和日本等。但印度若想吸引美国公司和投资者，必须正面应对国内的严峻挑战。

    如果印度实现9%的发展速度，这个最大的民主国家将书写近代史中最辉煌的经济建设篇章之一。在此过程中，美国和印度的企业、创业者和投资者将迎来巨大的机遇。

    本文作者Bob Moritz为普华永道会计事务所董事长兼高级合伙人，Deepak Kapoor为普华永道（印度）董事长。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    审校：任文科

    As President Obama wraps up his three-day visit to India this week, it’s a fitting time to take a closer look at a country that may well be the world’s fastest-growing major economy over the next two years. Though confronting great challenges, India has amazing opportunities with the promise of shared prosperity for its 1.25 billion citizens. But in order to make this promise a reality, India’s government and business community must work together to tackle some of its challenges and realize its economic growth potential.

    In order for India to secure its economic future and provide for its citizens, the country needs to increase its GDP by 9% a year in order to become a $10 trillion economy over the next 20 years. Why $10 trillion? Because anything less would not secure India’s social and economic future. In fact, India needs to create 10 to 12 million jobs every year for the next 20 years in order to keep up with its rapidly growing population.

    India’s private sector has an opportunity to create jobs and grow the economy. According to PwC’s 2015 CEO Survey,73% of Indian CEOs expect to boost headcount within the next 12 months, and this is highest compared to any other country in the world. Sixty-two percent of Indian CEOs are very confident in their companies’ growth over the next 12 months — significantly higher than the 39% global average. Finally, 84% of India’s CEOs believe there are more growth opportunities for their companies today than three years ago – again, the highest percentage in the world. This sentiment is driven both by long-term growth prospects in a country with an emerging middle class of 600 million people, and by the more immediate catalyst of a clear mandate for India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was elected just last May.

    But creating jobs and growing the economy cannot be achieved by India’s private sector alone. The Indian government, led by Modi, must work with businesses to implement the reforms necessary to boost the country’s economic growth and development—here, it faces three major challenges:

    First, India’s education system presents a major challenge.While India produces quality talent from its most elite institutes, the vast majority of graduates from its primary and secondary education are not sufficiently skilled. That, combined with a recent national survey indicating declining reading levels in schools, does not bode well for India’s ability to develop the educated and skilled labor force needed to fill new positions. Over the next two decades, India must deliver high-quality, formal education to seven million additional children each year in order to meet the country’s demands for skilled labor. Doing so won’t be easy with traditional education strategies, given that just over 3% of India’s GDP is targeted at education, compared with an average of more than 6% across the rest of the world.

    While reforming the country’s education system is clearly a job for the government, business must play a role and work with the government to ensure a strong pipeline of educated and skilled talent. The recent effort to foster skill development through the National Skill Development Corporation is one such attempt at creating a skilled workforce.

    Second, India’s economy will not achieve sufficient growth through traditional, linear approaches. As President Obama meets with Prime Minister Modi, increasing bilateral trade and investment has certainly been on their agenda. Over the weekend, they resolved key issues in a long-stalled nuclear deal that for years kept U.S. nuclear companies from doing business in India. More needs to be done, however. Trade and investment, both public and private, must focus on productivity and innovation. This will require foreign direct investment that will drive technological spillovers and consequently, will drive innovation. According to PwC’s recent research, a 9% growth scenario in India will be unattainable unless the country makes a strong push in innovation and Research & Development, tripling its R&D spend from 0.8% to 2.4% of GDP over the next two decades.

    This is not news to India’s CEOs. The country’s business leaders are concerned with a variety of challenges hindering innovation, R&D and foreign investment. These issues include bribery, corruption, volatile energy costs, and the availability of key skills. Critically, 82% of the Indian CEOs surveyed by PwC said that a government priority should be ensuring adequate infrastructure, while 68% think their government has been ineffective in doing so.

    Finally, attracting foreign investments presents a serious challenge, with international businesses wary of India’s regulatory landscape, issues related to corruption and an infrastructure in need of significant upgrade. In order to boost investor confidence, Modi has launched a diplomatic offensive to court foreign governments and investors. By the end of this month —and less than a year into his five-year term — the prime minister will have visited or hosted the leaders of the United States, Australia, Brazil, China, and Japan, among others. However, if India is to attract American companies and investors, it must meet its significant domestic challenges head on.

    As India seeks a growth trajectory of 9%, the nation will be attempting one of the largest democratic nation building exercises in recent history. As it does so, the opportunities for U.S. and Indian businesses, entrepreneurs and investors are enormous.

    Bob Moritz is the chairman and senior partner of PwC and Deepak Kapoor is Chairman of PwC India.