投资美股必读：2015年一大波热门科技公司将IPO？

    上周，作为2015年第一家首发上市的热门初创型科技企业，总部设在加州洛斯阿尔托斯的云存储服务公司Box筹集了1.75亿美元。尽管在损益表中披露了巨额亏损，Box仍受到了投资者热捧。上市当天，该公司股价一度飙升76%。

    这是否预示着今年将迎来科技公司的IPO盛宴呢？过去几年中出现了两次历史上规模最大的IPO——2012年Facebook上市，募集资金160亿美元；2014年阿里巴巴上市，筹集了220亿美元。市场依然乐此不疲。这种情况会延续下去吗？答案是“也许”。按照观察人士的预测（或者说期望），很快就会有一系列人们耳熟能详的科技企业在美国证券交易所上市，为这些公司添砖加瓦的消费者将有机会变成股东。这些公司包括租车服务商Uber、租房网站Airbnb、云服务公司Dropbox、视觉创意平台Pinterest和图片及视频共享网站Snapchat（请参见《财富》杂志首次推出的“独角兽”公司（即估值超过10亿美元）名单，每季度更新一次）。

    不过，这些初创型企业都有意尽可能地延长其私有状态的时间。其中许多都曾被视为2014年的IPO大热门。一年来，这些公司中的大多数都在私募市场筹集了数亿美元，从而为自己争取了更多时间，不必立刻面对上市后公众挑剔的目光，以及股价的起起落落。Uber和Snapchat等少数几家公司在2014年即将结束之际大举融资，这降低了它们在2015年首发上市的可能性，甚至是必要性。

    以Uber为例。就像个人投资者非常愿意见到Uber首发一样，该公司一向不服管束的首席执行官特拉维斯•卡兰尼克可能非常不愿意这样做。最新一轮融资过后，Uber的估价达到了410亿美元——有人预计，如果今年上市，其价值将超过1000亿美元。但该公司IPO的可能性看来不大。在许多城市，Uber的业务都遭遇了来自政府的威胁、诉讼和禁令，这必将延缓该公司的国际扩张速度。任何不利因素都会加剧上市公司股价的波动幅度；在和监管部门较量的过程中，Uber可能更愿意处于私有状态。通过Uber为他人提供代步服务的车主总是招来很大非议，如果该公司上市，这也可能给它的股价带来压力。

    Airbnb在扩张过程中也遇到了类似问题。该公司的经营模式和现行法律以及酒店业的利益存在冲突。去年4月份，Airbnb筹集了4.75亿美元，这让它的私募融资总额达到了8亿美元左右。这家租房网站最近的估值为130亿美元，和Uber相比它更可能首发上市。但Airbnb也许能创造足够的现金来保持私有状态。

    以前，预测IPO的时间并不是难事。过去几十年中曾有一项规定，要求股东人数超过500名的公司必须申请上市。2012年的《创业企业融资法案》把这一数字提高到了2000人，这让公司有可能在更长时间里维持其私有状态。谷歌和Facebook的上市并非发自内心，但“500名股东”的规定让它们不得不这样做。现在，私有公司可以有更多的股东，还可以在私募市场接触到一些机构投资者——它们首发上市时这些机构投资者将率先出手。二、三线公司可没有这样的待遇。但这中间也蕴含着风险——实力较强、较受欢迎的企业最终上市后可能发现，投资者对它们的热情已经消失。股市的表现可能也不会像近几个月那样强劲。

    2014年上市的科技公司有53家，但投资者朝思暮想的重量级企业只有寥寥数家，比如摄像设备厂商GoPro和P2P贷款平台LendingClub。2015年，这种情况可能延续下去，出现在我们面前的可能仍是规模较小而且较不知名的公司。这不一定是坏事。总的来说，去年表现最好的首发新股中也包括首日上涨173%的软件公司Zendesk和首日上涨197%的视频广告平台TubeMogul。

    不过，如果想持有名气最大、人们最期待的那些IPO公司的新股，特别是那些智能手机日常应用制造商的股份，大家可能还要再等一段时间。只要能保持私有状态，它们可能就不会上市。考虑一下急着上市的Box和Dropbox。它们的在线存储业务都展现出了很强的实力。去年1月份，Dropbox通过权益融资获得了3.5亿美元，几个月后又借发债筹集了5亿美元。这些资金可供它使用很长时间。即使不选择上市，这也足够该公司支撑下去。

    Box的情况和Dropbox不同。该公司去年7月份融资1.5亿美元时的估值为24亿美元，而且当时已经约定要在一年内上市。随着IPO期限临近，Box的估值似乎一度接近15亿美元。该公司并没有为避免IPO争取时间，相反，它选择上市的原因是因为公司面临未来资金方面的压力（目前其市值为27.7亿美元）。

    其他私有科技公司的情况与之类似——有些公司的历史跟消费互联网本身一样长。电子商务支付服务供应商First Data 1992年首发上市，今年该公司正在筹备再次上市。它于2007年私有化，并借此制造了历史上规模最大的杠杆收购之一。受此次收购影响，First Data目前仍负债230亿美元。该公司打算通过IPO来筹集资金，以减轻债务负担。域名注册公司GoDaddy可能更不对投资者的胃口。在前首席执行官鲍勃•帕森斯的管理下，这家公司以广告缺乏品味著称。尽管上市条款对新股东来说并不理想，然而，首发上市是GoDaddy良久以来的期盼。

    无论如何，初创型企业的CEO们都要考虑到这样一些重大趋势：今年晚些时候美国的利率可能开始上升，从而削弱对新股的需求；欧洲经济存在不确定性，再加上油价暴跌的影响还没有得到体现，股市可能出现更多的震荡。另外，2014年最后几周IPO申请陡然增多——但除了Box以外，一家明星科技企业都没有。

    今年首发上市可能性最大的公司将是那些最缺钱的公司。至于其他企业？请勿凝神期许。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：李翔

    Box raised $175 million on Friday in the first initial public offering of 2015 by a hot technology startup. Despite significant losses on the business software company’s income statement, investors were happy to welcome it. Shares of the Los Altos, Calif. company BOX -2.71% surged as much as 76% on its first day of trading.

    Does this presage a blockbuster year for tech IPOs? In recent years investors saw two of the biggest IPOs ever: Facebook’s FB -0.43% $16 billion offering in 2012 and Alibaba’s BABA 0.85% $22 billion deal in 2014. The market has yet to lose major momentum. Will that continue?

    The answer is “maybe.” There are a number of household names in the tech industry that observers expect (or hope) to soon list on U.S. exchanges, allowing consumers to have a chance to own a piece of the companies they help support. Among them: Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and Snapchat. (See each company’s valuation on Fortune‘s first-ever Unicorn List, updated quarterly.)

    But these startups have shown a willingness to stay private as long as possible. Many were thought to be prime IPO candidates in 2014. Most raised hundreds of millions of dollars in private markets this past year, buying them more time before they would have to face the public scrutiny and earnings circus that a public offering would entail. A few, such as Uber and Snapchat, raised huge rounds in the waning days of 2014, making a 2015 IPO less likely or even necessary.

    Take Uber, for example. As much as individual investors would love to see an Uber IPO, the transportation company’s regulation-averse CEO, Travis Kalanick, may not feel the same way. Uber’s recent investment round left the company valued at $41 billion, though some expect it could be worth more than $100 billion should it make an offering this year. But that prospect is looking unlikely.Uber’s international expansion is sure to face speed bumps as governments threaten, sue, or ban the service in many cities. Any setbacks can add volatility to public stocks; the company may prefer to remain private while it fights these regulatory battles. The ongoing, high-profile controversies involving Uber drivers could also weigh on the company’s shares in the public market.

    Airbnb is facing similar issues as it expands. Its business model clashes with current laws and the interests of the hotel industry. Airbnb raised $475 million in April, bringing its total private financing to about $800 million. The real estate rental company, recently valued at $13 billion, may be a more likely IPO candidate than Uber. But it could be generating enough cash to remain private.

    Timing IPOs used to be easier. For decades, there was a rule that companies with more than 500 shareholders had to file for a public offering. The JOBS Act of 2012 raised that figure to 2,000, giving companies the chance to stay private longer. Google and Facebook weren’t looking forward to going public at the time that they did, but the 500-shareholder rule forced their hands. Now companies can stay private with more shareholders and find access in private markets to the kinds of institutional investors who would be first in line during an IPO. Second and third-tier companies don’t have this luxury. But there’s a risk: Once the stronger, more sought-after names finally do go public, they could find that investors’ appetite for them has diminished. The stock market may also be less bullish than it’s been in recent months.

    Fifty-three tech companies went public in 2014, but only a few of the big names that investors pined for—GoPro GPRO -4.00% andLendingClub LC 4.77% among them— ended up listing their shares. We’re likely to see a continuation of the trend in 2015 with smaller, lesser-known enterprise technology companies. (Read: “Beyond Box: 10 big business-tech IPOs in the offing.”) This is not necessarily a bad thing. Some of the top-performing IPOs of last year in all industries were companies like Zendesk ZEN -5.63% , up 173% from its offering price, and TubeMogul TUBE -2.40% , up 197%.

    But if you’re looking to own a piece of best-known, most-desired IPO candidates—especially the ones you use daily on your smartphone—you may have to wait longer. The ones that can afford to stay private likely will.

    Consider the counterexamples of Box and Dropbox. Both make strong showings in the online storage business. Dropbox raised $350 million in an equity round last January and secured another $500 million in debt financing a few months later. The loans will give it a resource to draw on for a long time, leaving it plenty of gas in the tank should it choose to steer away from public markets.

    Box is a different story. The company raised $150 million last July at a valuation of $2.4 billion, with the stipulation that it would go public within a year. For a time, it looked as if Box would be worth closer to $1.5 billion as it neared its IPO deadline. Rather that buy time to avoid an IPO, Box faced pressure to go public for future capital. (Its market capitalization today is $2.77 billion.)

    It’s a similar story for other private tech companies—some that are as old as the consumer Web itself. First Data, an e-commerce payment processor that first went public in 1992, is staging another IPO this year. The company went private in 2007 in one of the biggest leveraged buyouts ever. It’s still holding $23 billion in debt from that deal and is looking to raise capital from an IPO to lighten its debt load. GoDaddy may be even less palatable. The domain-registration company—known for its tasteless commercialsunder former CEO Bob Parsons—has been itching for awhile to make a public offering, even though the terms may not be ideal for new shareholders.

    Whatever the case, there are important market trends for startup CEOs to consider. Interest rates in the U.S. could start to rise later in the year, dampening demand for new stocks. Economic uncertainty in Europe and Asia, coupled with the still-to-be-felt aftershocks of plummeting oil prices, could create more fluctuation in the stock market. And then there’s the fact that IPO filings surged in the final weeks of 2014—but aside from Box, there was nary a tech star among them.

    The surest IPOs this year will be the ones that need the capital most. And the rest? Well, don’t hold your breath.