俄罗斯面临抉择：是拯救卢布还是拯救寡头经济？

    谁会愿意处在埃尔维拉•纳比乌琳娜的位置上呢？

    去年12月份，这位俄罗斯央行行长将基准利率上调至惊人的17%，以免卢布遭到挤兑。此举一度获得了成功，但代价是除了总统普京的熟人外，其他所有人的信贷供应均告中断。

    在一波财团对此诟病不断后，纳比乌琳娜又在上周五反其道而行之，将基准利率下调至15%。

    身处这种进退两难的境地，我们很难断定此举在今后一两个月里是否能挽救众多的俄罗斯企业。然而，由于油价没有反弹，卢布重挫之后仍未得到支撑，此举对于俄罗斯民众的冲击倒是立即就能见分晓。

    卢布一度跌至今年最低点，美元兑卢布汇率最高报71.81。随后，俄罗斯央行显然进行了干预，带动美元/卢布汇率回到70.50。笔者撰写本文时，卢布有再创收盘新低之势。

    Who’d be Elvira Nabiullina?

    In December, Russia’s central bank chief ramped her key interest rate up to an eye-watering 17% in an attempt to stop a run on the currency. She succeeded in the short term, but at the price of stopping the supply of credit to everyone not on first-name terms with President Vladimir Putin.

    On Friday, she reversed course, cutting the key rate to 15% after a barrage of criticism from a barrage of big business.

    As is generally the case in this kind of dilemma, it won’t be clear for a month or two many Russian businesses will be saved by this. What is clear immediately is the hit that ordinary Russians will have to take, absent a rebound in the oil price to support the country’s battered currency.

    The ruble fell to its lowest level this year, hitting RUB71.81 against the dollar before apparent intervention by the central bank drove it back to 70.50. At the time of writing, it’s heading for another all-time record low close.

    通常，在经济陷入困境时，放松货币政策以重振企业的国际竞争力是相当明智的主意。希腊和意大利都乐此不疲。多年来日本也一直在这样做。但这三个国家的通胀率都没有在超过13%之后继续攀升。

    俄罗斯大多数物资都依赖进口，从食品（逾40%靠进口）到耐用消费品，再到药品。因此，卢布贬值必然意味着民众生活水平的下降。仅去年12月份，俄罗斯的物价增长水平（2.6%）就超过了西班牙三年来的累计物价涨幅。通胀直线上升造成去年俄罗斯居民实际收入下降，这是2000年普京当政以来从未出现过的局面。

    上周五，俄罗斯央行对降息做出了解释。该行称，受12月份的举措影响，今年晚些时候通胀压力有望减轻，但受此牵连，今年上半年俄罗斯经济年化增长率将跌至3.2%。

    其带来的损害随处可见——通用汽车上周五提高了雪佛兰Niva的售价，这是该车型在五个星期内第二次涨价；通用汽车还表示，该公司设在圣彼得堡的工厂将从3月中旬开始停产两个月。福特和大众也指出，在俄罗斯的亏损对自身盈利产生了重大影响。

    其他行业同样受到了冲击，只是原因不同。上周三，嘉士伯称旗下10家俄罗斯工厂中将有两家关门歇业。而实际上，啤酒的原料进口成本一点儿也不高；此外，嘉士伯还可以从丹麦大本营为俄罗斯业务提供资金，而且利率接近于零。但不利因素是，几年来，为打击酗酒行为，俄罗斯政府已将啤酒消费税提高到了原来的三倍。

    就此宣布俄罗斯经济已毫无希望有夸张之嫌。去年12月份，俄罗斯工业产值实际上同比增长了3.9%，支柱性的石油和天然气产业做出了主要贡献。俄钢铁集团OAO NLMK表示，2014年核心利润创四年来新高，原因是卢布贬值提高了出口利润率。面对欧洲和美国产品禁运带来的挑战，俄罗斯肉类和乳制品企业也站了出来。只是在斯摩棱斯克的马苏里拉奶酪是否优于意大利原产的问题上，人们还众口不一。

    不过，俄罗斯铝业联合公司首席执行官奥列格•德里帕斯卡上周说，如果利率达到30%，那么靠本土制造替代进口产品就会变得十分困难，而且飙升的坏账率会让银行苦不堪言。

    今后在很长一段时间里，俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜估计都会走在“钢丝绳”上，而且她还要受到两面夹击。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：李翔

    Normally, with a struggling economy, loosening monetary policy to restore the international competitiveness of industry is a pretty sensible idea. Greece and Italy would just love to do it. Japan’s been doing it for years. But none of them already has an inflation rate of over 13% and rising.

    Russia is dependent on imports for most things, from food (over 40%) to consumer durables and pharmaceuticals, so a drop in the exchange rate automatically means a drop in living standards. Prices rose by more in December alone (2.6%) than they have in Spain in the last three years. Rocketing inflation meant that real incomes fell last year for the first time since Putin took power in 2000.

    The CBR justified its rate cut Friday by saying it expects inflationary pressures to ease later this year as a result of what it did in December, but the collateral damage is that the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the first half of this year.

    The damage is visible pretty much everywhere: General Motors Corp. GM -1.63% Friday announced its second price increase in five weeks for its Chevrolet Niva models, and said it would suspend production at its assembly plant in St. Petersburg for two months from mid-March. Ford and Volkswagen have also reported major hits to earnings from losses in Russia.

    Other sectors are also suffering, albeit for different reasons. Carlsberg SA CABJF -0.80% said Wednesday it would close two of its 10 breweries in Russia, even though beer doesn’t need any expensive imported inputs, and even though it can finance operations from its home country Denmark at rates near to zero. It doesn’t help that the government has tripled excise duty on beer in the last couple of years in a bid to crack down on alcoholism.

    It would be an exaggeration to write Russia’s economy off completely: industrial production was actually up 3.9% on the year in December, thanks mainly to the key oil and gas industry. Steel company OAO NLMK said core profits in 2014 were the best in four years, as the cheaper ruble increased its export margins. Meat and dairy producers also stepped up to the challenge of replacing E.U. and U.S. produce banned by sanctions, though whether Smolensk’s mozzarella represents an improvement on Italy’s is a moot point.

    But as aluminum producer Rusal CEO Oleg Deripaska said last week, it’s going to be difficult for industry to substitute imports with local production if interest rates are at 30% and banks are crippled by souring loan books.

    Nabiullina has a long tightrope walk ahead of her–and no shortage of people firing at her from both sides.