印度今年增长将超中国？

    来自印度方面的官方消息：经过20年的飞速发展，中国将在今年卸任“全球增长最快的经济大国”这一头衔，接任者是印度。

    上周五，新德里公布的最新规划中称，印度政府预计下一年国内GDP增长率将超过8%，并在随后几年突破10%（注：印度政府的财年从每年4月份开始，而非按日历年计算）。

    与此同时，中国的增长正在放缓，政府正转换重心，从出口导向型制造业转向内需和服务驱动经济。尽管如此，中国的经济规模仍是印度的两倍以上。也就是说，在可预见的未来，亚洲经济的主要动力仍将来自中国，而不是印度。

    It’s official, sort of. After 20 years of breakneck growth, China is going to pass the title of the world’s fastest growing big economy to India this year.

    New projections out of New Delhi Friday confirmed that the government expects gross domestic product to grow by over 8% next year, rising to over 10% in subsequent years (albeit, the government’s fiscal year runs from April to April, rather than being a calendar year).

    Delhi’s forecasts come as China’s growth is slowing down, as the authorities switch their emphasis from export-oriented manufacturing to more domestically- and service-based activities. However, China’s economy remains more than twice as large as India’s, meaning that it, rather than India, will remain Asia’s powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

    印度政府在经济调查报告中称：“印度已处于一个‘最佳击球点’——这在世界各国的历史上都相当少见——使其最终将踏上一个两位数的中期增长轨道。这种势头将使印度达到基本目标——让所有现存的贫困和弱势群体‘擦去眼泪’，并为日益增加的年轻人和中产阶级提供机会，使雄心勃勃的印度发挥出无限潜力。”

    经济调查报告历来都是印度政府制定年度预算的基础。本次报告由享誉国际的经济学家阿尔温德•萨布拉曼尼亚执笔。报告敦促印度财政部长阿兰•贾特里利用这一有利环境来实施总理莫迪去年参加竞选时提出的大胆改革计划。

    全球金融危机过后，印度经济增速一度大幅下降，但去年有了起色。人们乐观地认为，莫迪政府将让印度对投资更加开放，并减少官僚主义。不过，到目前为止莫迪还在为开展改革奋力争取，而印度经济好转在很大程度上显然得益于国际油价的暴跌，这有助于降低长期困扰印度的经常账户赤字。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审稿：李翔

    “India has reached a sweet spot—rare in the history of nations—in which it could finally be launched on a double-digit medium-term growth trajectory,” the government’s Economic Survey said. “This trajectory would allow the country to attain the fundamental objectives of ‘wiping every tear from every eye’ of the still poor and vulnerable, while affording the opportunities for increasingly young, middle-class, and aspirational India to realize its limitless potential.”

    The survey is traditionally a document that forms the basis for the country’s annual budgets, and the latest edition, penned by the internationally-respected economist Arvind Subramanian, urged Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to use the favorable conditions to deliver the bold reforms promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his election campaign last year.

    India’s growth slowed significantly after the financial crisis but has appeared to recover in the last year on optimism that Modi will make the country more open to investment and cut bureaucracy. However, he has struggled to deliver much in the way of reforms so far, and much of the improvement in the economy appears more down to the collapse in world oil prices, which has helped cut its troubling current account deficit.