美联储今夏不会加息的四个理由

    最近美国股市持续下跌，原因是人们担心美联储上调利率的时间会早于预期，也许会在6月份。确实，《华尔街日报》也在周三的报道中指出，美联储正在考虑在下次公布货币政策声明时抛出一个关键词。这或许会为美联储最快在今年年中加息铺平道路。

    那么，美联储会在什么时候动手呢？我的看法是，不会像人们所想的那么早。短时间内美联储不会提高利率（至少不会在6月份，甚至是今年夏天），原因如下：

    The stock market has been falling recently on fears that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than some thought, perhaps as early as June. Indeed, on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed is thinking about dropping a key word in its next policy statement. That might pave the way for a hike as soon as the middle of the year.

    So, when will the Fed pull the trigger? My bet: It’s won’t happen as soon as people think. Here are four reasons the Fed is not going to raise rates anytime soon (or at least not as soon as June, or even this summer):

    1. 利率仍有下调空间

    许多人都说，美联储需要提高利率，因为除此之外别无选择。他们的依据是，如果美国经济再次陷入衰退，或者只是出现经济滑坡，现在不加息的话美联储就无法通过下调利率来提振经济。

    长期以来，人们一直认为利率不能低于零，经济学家用“下限”来描述这种观点。但正如最近我们所见，情况并非如此。瑞士央行已将短期利率降至负0.75%。许多瑞士经济学家则认为，该行应将其定为负1.5%。同时，许多欧洲国家目前也在发行负利率债券。

    因此，下限或许存在，但这个下限并不是零。也就是说，美联储不必只是为了方便以后降息而提高利率。

    1. Rates can still go lower

    Many people say the Fed needs to raise interest rates because they have no where to go but up. If we were to run into another recession in the U.S. or just an economic downturn, the argument goes, then the Fed would not be able to lower interest rates to give the economy a boost.

    The "lower bound" is a term economists use to describe the long-held belief that interest rates can't go below zero. But, as we have seen recently, that's not true. Currently, Switzerland's central bank has set its short-term interest rates at negative 0.75%. Many economists there think it should be set as low as negative 1.5%. And plenty of European countries are now selling bonds with negative interest rates.

    So, there might be a lower bound, but it's not zero, meaning the Fed doesn't need to raise interest rates just so they can cut them later.