阿里巴巴股价：向上走向下走？

    继一系列有关阿里巴巴的负面新闻（包括公开叫板国家工商总局）出现之后，投资者似乎已经对这家中国科技巨头的热情转冷。从美国东岸的曼哈顿到中西部的得梅因，股票经纪人眼中，阿里巴巴已不再是所向披靡的中国电子商务明星。

    现在的问题是，作为中国最有影响力的电商企业，阿里巴巴还能从去年秋天夸张的造势中重振雄风吗？它能摆脱外界批评淘宝卖假货以及季度业绩低迷的影响吗？还是说，马云得再度解释一下，阿里巴巴在筹备IPO的过程中是怎样凑巧完美地赶上了市场高点？

    你可以从中美两地入手寻找答案。美国有一大群分析师就靠评估阿里谋生。但可惜的是，华尔街分析师预测未来的记录并不出色，而且他们十有八九都不住在中国，而阿里巴巴几乎所有的业务都在中国。

    那么重点来了。选股大师彼得•林奇说过，要买自己了解的股票。堪称史上最佳投资者的沃伦•巴菲特也遵循类似的投资哲学，即只投资自己看得懂的美国公司，比如可口可乐和美国政府雇员保险公司。可是有多少美国人了解淘宝、天猫和支付宝这些阿里巴巴的核心业务呢？没几个。在美国追踪阿里巴巴动向的难度，几乎不亚于每天畅饮和巴菲特一样多的樱桃可乐。

    这就是地利。就像军事上所说的，要扎根地面。

    出于这个原因，最近我决定对阿里巴巴进行一次非正式调查。在中国，我认识一些绝顶聪明的商界人士，我很想知道他们对阿里巴巴（及其股票）的前景有何看法。上周，我向31位在中国工作的生意人以及咨询顾问发出了电子邮件，其中只有一个简单的问题：你认为余下这年阿里巴巴的股价将何去何从？会涨？会跌？还是回归发行价？

    在这些人中，有一部分是企业经营者，另一部分则从事咨询工作并对前者进行追踪；有一些是中国人，还有一些是在华工作多年的外国人。我觉得他们没有哪一位对阿里巴巴了如指掌。但通过耳濡目染，他们对阿里巴巴的前景都有一些见解。

    大多数做出回应的人都解释了自己为何会这样回答。比如说，一位受访者建议做空阿里巴巴，原因是尽管该公司通过硅谷云服务中心在美扩张也能算是兴奋点，但此举或许只是为了给股价持续滑坡前所遇到的困境打掩护 。

    在我询问的这31人中，有10位回复了我的邮件。其中4位预计，到年底阿里巴巴的股价将上涨。另外6位认为今年剩余时间里这只股票将继续下跌（当中一位预测阿里巴巴的股价将一路跌回68美元，也就是去年9月份的发行价）。从统计学角度，这样的调查样本不具意义。但这不是重点。重点是，我们可以借此一窥中国商界高层对这只股票（和这家公司）的预期，他们远离华尔街，而且每天都被阿里巴巴的产品和平台所包围。

    那几位看跌人士提出了一些理由。首先，围绕阿里巴巴的兴奋情绪已经荡然无存。阿里巴巴IPO时，连美国远离金融中心的爱达荷州人都会把淘宝作为话题，现在这已成为回忆。如今的阿里巴巴只是一家纽交所上市公司。美国CNBC主持人曾飞到杭州去专访马云，但这也已经是几个月之前的事了。没有什么事物能永远停留在聚光灯下。

    另外，他们的第二条理由是，为了和腾讯抗衡，阿里巴巴的做法日趋激进。作为中国另一科技巨头，腾讯旗下的微信在国内社交网络中处于主导地位，而且腾讯还在不断挑战阿里巴巴的地盘。去年，腾讯向阿里巴巴在电商市场的对手京东投资2.15亿美元。阿里巴巴正斥巨资和腾讯竞争，但其中一些投资对象的估值水平让人欲哭无泪。这几位受访者指出，除了疲软的季度业绩以及和工商总局的口角，阿里巴巴面对的是实实在在的阻力。

    Investors seem to have fallen out of love with the Chinese tech giant after a string of bad news this year that included the company’s very public skirmish with a Chinese regulator. Alibaba is no longer the invincible Chinese e-commerce star that stockbrokers from Manhattan to Des Moines thought it was. Or is it?

    For now the questions are, Can China’s most powerful e-commerce company recover some of its swagger from last fall? Can it put the criticism of fake products and a weak quarter behind it? Or will Jack Ma & Co. be left explaining, again, how they perfectly timed the market’s top when staging an IPO?

    You can turn to a couple places for answers. There’s a gaggle of analysts who opine on Alibaba’s fortunes for a living. Unfortunately, Wall Street analysts don’t have a strong record when it comes to predicting the future—and nine out of ten of them don’t even live in China, where Alibaba does almost all of its business.

    This brings up an important point. The great stock-picker Peter Lynch said you should buy what you know. Warren Buffett, probably the best investor in the history of man, follows a similar philosophy—sticking to U.S. businesses he understands like Coca-Cola and GEICO. Do many people in the United States understand Alibaba’s core businesses Taobao, Tmall, and Alipay? Of course not. Living in the U.S. makes tracking Alibaba almost as hard as drinking as much Cherry Coke as Buffett in a day.

    That’s when it pays to be local. To have boots on the ground, like the military says.

    That’s why I decided to stage an informal poll recently about Alibaba. I was curious what some of the smartest business people I know in China think about the company’s (and stock’s) prospects. Last week I sent an email to 31 businesspeople and consultants I know working in China, asking a simple question: where do you think Alibaba’s stock is going for the rest of 2015? Up? Down? Or back down to its IPO level?

    Some of these people run businesses. Others track them as consultants. Some are Chinese, others are foreigners who have been working in China for years. I didn’t consider anyone an Alibaba expert. But all know something about Alibaba’s prospects thanks to osmosis.

    Most of those who responded wanted to be clear about why they picked their answer. For example, one person recommended shorting the stock, reasoning that while people may be excited about Alibaba expanding the U.S. by opening a cloud service in Silicon Valley, that might only gloss over Alibaba’s struggles before the stock continues its downslide.

    Of the 31 people I asked about BABA, I got 10 responses. Of those, four said the stock would rise by the end of the year. Six thought it would continue falling for the rest of 2015 (one said it would make its way all the way back to $68 a share—its September IPO listing price). It’s not a statistically significant sample by any means. That wasn’t the point. The point was to glean a little about what top business people in China, who work far outside Wall Street’s spin-zone and are surrounded by Alibaba’s products and platforms everyday, think of the stock’s (and company’s) chances.

    Those who thought the stock is headed down had a couple reasons for thinking so. The first was that the excitement around Alibaba has evaporated. The IPO that had Idahoans talking about Taobao is a distant memory. Alibaba is back to being another business listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Its been months since David Faber flew to Hangzhou for an exclusive interview with Jack Ma. Things can’t stay in the spotlight forever.

    They gave a second reason. Alibaba is fighting more aggressively by the day with Tencent Holdings Ltd TCEHY -2.09% , China’s other tech giant whose WeChat network dominates social networking in the country and is encroaching more and more on Alibaba’s turf. Last year Tencent invested $215 million into JD.com JD 1.68% , Alibaba’s e-commerce rival. Alibaba is spending furiously to compete against Tencent, but some of those investments are coming at eye-watering valuations. Beyond the weak quarterly results headlines and squabbles with regulators, Alibaba faces real headwinds, the respondents said.