油价将何去何从？

    从寻常巷陌到华尔街，从北京到巴黎，人人都想知道油价将是涨是跌。要探讨这个问题，我觉得我们应该先要问清楚，为何此前纽约商品交易所的油价会直线下跌，从2014年夏天的每桶逾105美元跌至2015年1月的约47美元。然后，我们再来看造成油价暴跌的因素今后会不会出现逆转。

    首先，油价主要由石油交易商在纽约商交所等市场上的综合行为决定。当交易商预期油价上涨时，就会买入原油期货以期随后卖出套利。这些买入行为会推动油价上涨，最终也会推高汽油和民用燃料油等衍生品的价格。

    正如我在《石油热潮之谜》一书中谈到的，2014-2015年的油价暴跌是一场多因素联袂演绎的“完美风暴”。彼时全球经济增速放缓，尤其是在中国、印度、日本和欧洲，因此国际能源署于2014年10月中旬下调了全球石油需求预期。此外，美元汇率也达到了两年高点（由于国际上石油经常用美元计价，美元贬值通常会推高油价）。

    地缘政治方面，利比亚局势逐渐稳定，石油产量开始提高；交易商对伊朗核谈判的前景更为乐观，该地区爆发战争的可能性大大减少，对伊朗的制裁有望取消，石油出口量也可能大幅提高。

    最重要的是，2014年11月，沙特及其他石油输出国组织成员带头宣布不减产。他们本来可以通过减产抵消美国石油热潮带来的新增产量，后者对油价形成了持续压力。通常情况下，沙特起码会想办法把油价维持在某个区间，本次不作为的态度实属罕见，而这正是这次油价直线下跌的主要促因。

    2015年1月油价触及低点后，一些造成油价暴跌的因素开始反转。这就是最近石油期货价格反弹，并在五个月里首次突破每桶60美元的原因。现在我们应该作何预期呢？

    全球经济仍是一大不确定因素。坚挺的美元对美国的出口和GDP造成了不利影响，但世界其他经济体则正从这种失衡中获益。以欧洲为例，欧盟委员会最近就上调了欧元区经济增长预期。不过，作为石油消费大国，中国的经济增长率降至了多年来的最低点。

    美元最近稍有回落，相应地，油价近期有所上涨。不过美联储可能将提高利率，在其他条件不变的情况下，这将支撑美元走强，从而继续压低油价。

    近期地缘政治方面又有新动向，利比亚一处石油港口发生抗议活动，油价随之上升，也显示出利比亚局势依然不稳定。其实许多主要产油国都面临这个问题，比如伊拉克、尼日利亚和委内瑞拉。但另一方面，也是更重要的一点是，伊朗核谈判似乎很可能成功。尽管伊朗提高石油产量仍需时日，但战争警报解除应该可以让石油交易商松一口气。

    美国石油业的蓬勃发展势头已有所减弱，这可能是2014年沙特拒绝维持油价时希望看到的情况。油价暴跌已经导致美国一半的油井停产。石油输出国组织最近断言，美国的石油产量即将见顶，而这也是最近油价上扬的原因之一。除非油价持续反弹，否则已关闭的美国油井可能将继续停产。

    接下来，沙特将采取怎样的行动呢？此前沙特不减产可能是为了打压迅猛增长的美国石油业，遏制主要对手伊朗，并提高石油输出国组织的纪律性。如今目标都已实现，沙特很可能认为已经完成任务。而且，像许多石油输出国组织成员一样，沙特需要高一点的油价来完成预算指标，为其日益壮大的高福利社会提供更多资金。因此，沙特很可能不会继续打压当前油价。

    总之，今后六个月油价可能价格既不会过高，也不会过低。我估计在所有因素作用下，平均油价将在52-68美元之间波动，除非出现意料之外的重大情况。

    这样的油价水平对美国和全球经济来说没什么问题。消费者仍将从偏低的油价中受益，能源行业也不至于整体陷入困境。

    但无论怎样，不要忘记推动绿色能源并实施可持续发展策略，这样方为明智之举，也可以降低石油市场急剧波动对我们造成的影响。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审校: 夏林

    From Main Street to Wall Street, Beijing to Paris, people are interested in whether oil prices will rise or fall. I suggest that we begin to examine this question by asking why oil prices dropped like a rocket from over $105 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in summer 2014 to around $47 per barrel in January 2015. We can then see if the causes of the price collapse are likely to reverse going forward.

    For starters, oil prices are determined mainly by the combined behavior of oil traders on markets like the NYMEX. When traders believe that oil prices will rise, they buy oil futures in hopes of selling them later for a profit. Such buying increases oil prices, and, eventually, the price of derivatives, such as gasoline and heating oil.

    As I discuss in my book, “Myths of the Oil Boom,” the oil price crash of 2014-2015 resulted from a perfect storm of developments. Global economic growth slowed worldwide most notably in China, India, Japan, and in Europe, leading the International Energy Agency to lower its forecast for global oil demand in mid-October 2014. Moreover, the US dollar reached two-year highs (because oil is priced globally in dollars, a weak dollar usually raises the price of oil).

    Geo-politically, Libya stabilized and started to pump more oil, and traders became more sanguine about a nuclear deal with Iran that would prevent war in the region, lift sanctions on Iran, and free it to export much more of its oil.

    Most importantly, the Saudis and other OPEC members decided chiefly in November 2014 not to cut oil production. That could have offset the extra oil production of the American oil boom, which in and of itself was pressuring prices. Saudi inaction, which was rare given the Kingdom’s historical role of at least trying to keep oil prices in a range, was the main trigger of the oil price free fall.

    Since the January 2015 low in oil prices, some of the causes of the price collapse have started to reverse, which explains why oil futures recently rebounded to over $60 per barrel for the first time in five months. What can we now expect?

    The global economy remains a big wild card. The strong dollar has hurt American exports and gross domestic product, but others around the world have benefited from this imbalance such as Europe where the European Commission recently raised its forecast for Eurozone economic growth. Yet, China’s oil guzzling economy is growing at its slowest pace in many years.

    The US dollar has weakened a bit, which is correlated with the recent rise of oil prices, but the Federal Reserve could eventually raise interest rates, which could buttress the US dollar and continue to suppress oil prices, all things equal.

    Geo-politically, recent protests at a Libyan oil port contributed to rising oil prices and that underscored Libya’s ongoing instability—a problem faced by other major producers, including Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela. But on the flip side and far more importantly, nuclear negotiations with Iran seem likely to succeed. Yes, it will take time for Iran to ramp up oil production, but taking war off the table should placate oil traders.

    For its part, the American oil boom has lost some steam—which is probably what the Saudis wanted when they refused to buttress oil prices in 2014. Half of the American oil rigs have been shut down due to the oil price crash, leading OPEC recently to conclude that America is near an oil-output peak. And that has contributed to the recent rise in oil prices. These rigs are likely to remain shuttered unless oil prices recover in a sustained way, which will probably bring the rigs back into action.

    Then there is the House of Saud. What will the Saudis do? By failing to cut their oil production, they have met their probable goals of hurting the U.S. oil boom; checking their arch enemy Iran; and instilling more discipline in OPEC. They probably think that their work is done for now. And, anyway, they need higher oil prices, as do many OPEC members, to meet their budget targets at home and to subsidize their growing cradle-to-grave society. They probably won’t take action to suppress oil prices at these levels.

    Overall, then, we may expect a Goldilocks price scenario in the next six months—not too high and not too low. My guess is that all these countervailing forces will yield an average price between $52 and $68, barring major unforeseen developments.

    And that’s just fine for the American and global economy. Consumers will continue to benefit from relatively lower prices, while the energy industry will not be hobbled altogether.

    But whatever happens, we would be wise not to forget about greener energies and practices for a sustainable future, partly to temper our vulnerability to the vagaries of oil markets.