低油价将持续的四个原因

    本周，全球几大产油国的领导人将在维也纳会面。几乎同时，油价开始在每桶60美元左右企稳。

    随着夏季驾车出行高峰临近，消费者可能会担心本次会谈将重现30多年前的场景：旨在通过限制供给提高油价的各石油出口国将推动原油产量下降。但今时不同往日，1979年石油输出国组织（OPEC）曾权倾一时，占全球石油产量的一半，相比之下，目前其石油产量只占全球不到三分之一。

    今年2月份，《财富》杂志曾对油价暴跌进行过报道，当时，资深价值投资者杰里米•格兰瑟姆等人告诉我们，长期来看油价会回到每桶100美元以上。其他分析人士，比如经济学家鲁比尼等认为，低油价只会延续一年或一年半，沙特等产油国只是借此挤压美国页岩油生产商等高成本的竞争对手。

    Leaders from some of the world’s most productive oil-exporting nations will meet this week in Vienna, just as oil prices have begun to stabilize at around $60 per barrel.

    As we near peak summer driving season, American consumers would have worried a generation ago that such a meeting would be an impetus for a pullback in production, with oil exporters aiming to raise prices by limiting supply. But the world has changed a great deal since the height of OPEC’s power in 1979, when member nations accounted for 50% of global oil production, compared with less than one-third today.

    When Fortune published its report on the collapse of oil prices in February, investors like Jeremy Grantham told us that oil would be heading back to a price per barrel of more than $100 in the long run. Other analysts, like economist Nouriel Roubini, argued that cheap oil would last just a year or 18 months before producers like Saudi Arabia had successfully flushed out higher-cost competitors like shale producers here in the U.S.

    鲁比尼的预言能否成真还要一段时间才能见分晓。不过，近几个月的实际情况表明，从饱受战争创伤的伊拉克石油企业，到美国页岩油生产商，全世界的石油公司都没有被低油价吓得止步不前。就算今年夏天美国汽油消费量上升，我们仍然认为低油价时代不会很快结束，原因有以下四点。

    1. 低利率意味着美国石油生产商的资金成本不高。《华尔街日报》上周日指出，尽管油价不断下跌，投资者仍然很愿意为美国的石油勘探和精炼提供资金。因为利率偏低，投资者正在寻求各种稳健的投资渠道，就连成本高价格低的石油公司都不存在融资问题：

    “去年原油价格开始暴跌时，许多能源专家都预计1986年的情景将重现。当时美国石油企业资金断流，行业低谷持续了好几年。资金匮乏的石油公司只能放慢生产速度，甚至停产，而美国石油正是全球供给过剩的原因之一。许多公司都被迫出售给竞争对手，要么就得破产。”

    “然而本轮油价暴跌后，并未大规模出现当年行业下滑时的惨状。因为银行、私募股权公司和机构投资者的资金源源不断地涌向石油领域，哪怕石油生产商削减数十亿美元预算又裁员逾十万人，也挡不住投资的热情。”

    2. 沙特除了继续产油别无选择。沙特曾在全球石油市场扮演“产量调节器”的角色，可以通过增减产来保持油价稳定并赚取高额利润，如今时移世易。《纽约时报》刊登的一篇文章深入探讨了几十年来沙特的变化。首先，由于政局不稳，与政府继续用石油赚取大笔收入相比，保持石油行业就业水平更加重要；其次，世界其他地区产油量激增，沙特生产的石油不再像过去那样重要；最后，在过去30年中，随着低硫原油产量下降，沙特越发依赖于出口质量较低的石油。为此，沙特一直投资提高石油精炼产能。正是这项投资需求促使沙特即便在油价不断下跌的情况下，也得继续产油。

    3. 伊朗的石油可能很快进入国际市场。如果伊朗和美国就核问题达成正式协议，从而解除石油禁运，全球原油供应就会进一步上升。分析师估算，到2016年，解禁后的伊朗可能会让全球石油日供应量增加100万桶。届时如果美国页岩油企业资金耗尽，伊朗的石油将为市场供应提供缓冲。

    4. 可再生能源越发廉价。本月初，《金融时报》引述某位未具名沙特官员的话称：“沙特希望石油时代延续下去……希望石油仍是主要能源，也希望沙特仍是主要产油国。”这也是OPEC成员国减产动力不大的另一个原因，即可再生能源已经开始让化石燃料面临真正的竞争，而产油国愿意维持石油的廉价能源地位。

    人们经常说，低油价不会妨碍太阳能等可再生能源崛起，因为石油主要为汽车等机器提供动力，而可再生能源大多用于发电。然而，高油价也是电动汽车等产品的福音。举例来说，美国汽车信息网站Edmunds.com上个月报道，电动汽车的用户忠诚度有史以来首次跌至50%以下。Edmunds产业分析总监杰西卡•考德威尔表示：“不管怎么说，现在看来许多混合动力车以及电动汽车车主换车就是为了省钱，而不是出于保护环境的责任感。”（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    审校：夏林

    While there’s still time for Roubini’s prediction to come true, the intervening months have shown that producers around the world—from embattled drillers in war-torn Iraq, to shale concerns here in the U.S.—aren’t being scared off by cheap prices. Here are four reasons why we can expect the era of cheap oil to continue, even as Americans consume more gasoline this summer.

    1. Low interest rates mean cheap money for American producers.A report in The Wall Street Journal Sunday showed that despite falling prices, investors are still eager to fund oil exploration and extraction efforts here in the U.S. With interest rates so low and investors searching for anything that will provide decent returns, even oil companies facing high costs of production and low market prices are having no problem getting funding:

    “As crude prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts predicted a repeat of 1986 when U.S. oil companies lost their funding and the industry collapsed into a yearslong bust. Without money, companies had to slow or even stop drilling for the crude that helped create a global glut. Many were forced to sell out to rivals or go bankrupt.”

    “But the gloomy scenario of that downturn hasn’t played out on a large scale this time. That is because banks, private-equity firms and institutional investors have continued to pour money into the sector even as oil companies slashed billions of dollars in spending from their budgets and laid off more than 100,000 workers.”

    2. Saudi Arabia has no choice but to keep pumping.Long gone are the days when Saudi Arabia acted as the so-called “swing producer” in the global oil market, when it would increase or decrease production to keep prices stable and profits high. A report in The New York Times delves into what has changed in the Middle Eastern kingdom over the last generation. For one, political instability has made maintaining employment in the oil industry more important than keeping government revenues from oil sales high. Second, the explosion in oil production elsewhere in the world means that Saudi Arabia’s production just isn’t as significant as it once was. And finally, over the previous 30 years, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on selling lower quality oil as its supply of “sweeter” crude has dwindled. To facilitate this, the kingdom has invested in its refinery capabilities, and that investment demands that it keep the oil flowing, even amid falling prices.

    3.Iran’s oil could soon hit the global market. If Iran and the United States finalize an agreement on the latter’s nuclear enrichment program and lift an embargo against Iranian oil, we would see another increase in global supply. Analysts estimate that a sanction-free Iran could add another 1 million barrels per day of oil to global supply by 2016, providing a supply cushion if U.S. shale producers end up running out of financing.

    4. Renewable energy continues to get cheaper.Earlier this month, an unnamed Saudi official told The Financial Times, “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil…. We want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.” That logic is another reason why OPEC countries have less of an incentive to cut back production: renewable energy sources is starting to give fossil fuels some serious competition, and oil-exporting countries have an interest in keeping oil a cheap alternative.

    It’s often said that cheap oil will not hurt the rise of renewables like solar because oil is used mainly to power things like automobiles, while renewables are mostly used for electricity generation. But expensive oil has been a boon to products like electric cars, too. Edmunds.com announced last month, for instance, that for the first time ever loyalty rates for electric car owners fell below 50%. “For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a responsibility to the environment,” said Edmunds.com director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell.