好于预期的GDP增速可持续吗？

    通常，一国公布的经济数据好于预期时，股市都会迎来上涨，但中国却偏偏例外。

    虽然中国第二季度国内生产总值比去年同期增长7%，好于分析师预测的6.8%，但中国股市在周三（7月15日）仍然遭受重挫。

    上证综指下跌3.1%，中证500指数则下挫5.8%，其中包括此前吸纳了散户杠杆投资者大量热钱的小盘股。目前，中国股市已从6月份达到市场顶点之后下探了36%（但仍然比年初上涨了40%）。

    还要跌多久市场才能企稳？

    究其原因，股市涨跌不仅受基本面的影响，也受人们对政府及央行是否会出台提振市场的新政策的预期驱动。随着实体经济数据向好，未来出台更多刺激措施的可能性降低了，换言之，不太可能有更多的钱砸向市场来防止泡沫破裂了。

    早些时候，国家统计局表示，面临“复杂的国内外经济环境以及不断增加的下行压力”，该季度经济呈现“适度但稳定增长”的态势。

    此前，对于中国发布信息的可靠程度，尤其是当增长速度没能达到政府目标时所公布的数据可信度一直饱受质疑。此次，分析师依然对数据表示了怀疑态度。

    仔细来看，二季度大部分增长项都有所放缓：投资增速从13.5%降低到10.3%，零售增速从一季度的10.5%下降到10.2%。

    伦敦施罗德资产管理公司新兴市场经济学家克雷格•博瑟姆说，在这样的情况下，GDP却没有下滑，这有点“奇怪”，“我们公司内部模型计算的结果是，经济增速应从6.9%下降到6.3%。”

    博瑟姆没有指责政府“捏造”数据，但他指出支持这种出人意料的上涨背后的因素是非可持续性的。他表示，一季度由于助推股市泡沫的借贷活动激增，金融领域对GDP的贡献超出0.5%。而第二季度情况却正好相反，并且可能持续到下一季度。此外，净出口很可能占到二季度GDP中“相当大的一部分”，这并非因为出口总量大幅增加，而是因为主要进口货物出现价格暴跌，如石油、铁矿石等。而国家统计局并没有说明GDP中各领域的具体贡献比例。

    “支撑二季度经济数据的基础看起来并不牢靠，没有支撑自身可持续发展的牢固基石，”博瑟姆说，“建立在沙粒之上的圣殿一旦风云突变必将轰然倒塌——中国的命运也许不至如此，但毕竟，地基不稳，房屋不牢。”

    也许，股民的直接反应并没有错。（财富中文网）

    译者：Donna

    校对：詹妮

    Mainland Chinese stocks fell heavily Wednesday, even though the country’s second-quarter gross domestic product forecasts beat expectations, showing that the economy grew 7% from a year earlier. Analysts had forecast only 6.8%.

    But the Shanghai Composite index fell 3.1% and the China Securities 500 index, which comprises the small-cap stocks which have attracted the bulk of the hot money flowing in from leveraged retail investors, fell another 5.8%. It’s down 36% from its peak in June (but still up over 40% since the start of the year).

    How far do Chinese stocks have to fall before they stabilize?

    That’s because the markets are trading not in reaction to fundamentals, but in anticipation of fresh measures by the government and central bank to prop the market up. With the real economy outdoing expectations, the chances of more stimulus measures–in other words, more money thrown at the market to stop the bubble deflating–have fallen.

    Earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics had said the economy showed “moderate but steady growth” in the quarter, in the face of “complicated external and domestic economic conditions and increasingly downward pressure.”

    Analysts reacted skeptically to the figures, which revived long-standing concerns about the reliability of China, especially when growth falls shorts of the government’s targets.

    Most of the individual components of growth appeared to be slowing down in the second quarter: investment growth slowed from 13.5% to 10.3%, and retail sales growth slowed to 10.2% from 10.5% in the first quarter.

    Craig Botham, emerging markets economist for asset management firm Schroders in London, said it was “odd” that GDP didn’t slow too–“our in-house model pointed to a consistent growth rate of around 6.3%, down from 6.9%.”

    Botham stopped short of accusing Beijing of “fudging” the numbers. But he pointed out that the factors that appear to have been behind the upside surprise are unlikely to be sustainable. The financial sector, he noted, had added 0.5% to GDP growth in the first quarter due to the boom in lending that supported the equity bubble. That went into reverse in the second quarter and is likely to continue in the next three months, he said. Additionally, he said, net exports probably contributed “a sizeable chunk” of GDP in the second quarter–not because export volumes are booming, but because the price of key imports such as oil and iron ore were collapsing. The NBS didn’t give a detailed breakdown of contributions to the GDP number.

    “The performance in Q2 looks to have been built upon shaky foundations, rather than the solid rock of self-sustaining growth,” Botham said. “The biblical house built upon sand ultimately fell with a great crash as the weather turned against it – the same fate may not await China, but all sandcastles ultimately crumble.”

    Perhaps Mr. & Mrs. Wu’s reaction in the stock market was right after all.