美国正衰落的12个迹象
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一份新近发布的学术报告综合此前发布的数据认为，从多项重要衡量指标看，美国正在走下坡路，不过决策者还没有注意到这点。 请看以下数据： • 美国的儿童贫困率比其他任何一个发达国家都高，连饱受欧元区危机之苦的希腊和波兰、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚等东欧国家也比美国的低。 • 美国的成年国民财富中位值为3.9万美元，在全球所有国家和地区中排名第27位，塞浦路斯和爱尔兰都超过美国。 • 要是比一比“生活满意度”，美国只排在第12位，落后于以色列、瑞典和澳大利亚。 报告作者认为，作为高度工业化的国家，美国的人均财富、健康和教育总得来说只能算平庸。而且，衡量美国社会福祉的多种指标、国内的清廉程度、基础性服务的质量和成本也都在下滑。政府投入医疗卫生和教育的经费支持着庞大的管理机构，而医疗和教育的成果每况愈下。 纽约市立大学布鲁克林学院的企业营销学教授赫尔希.H.弗雷德曼是共同撰写上述报告的一位作者。他说：“我们观察了覆盖范围广泛的衡量指标，也观测了特定的个别指标。”报告作者认为，他们发现最危险的迹象包括：虽然国民收入增加，但存在贫富差距，这导致经济增长放缓，可能引起社会动荡。 弗雷德曼与帝国州立学院的教授沙拉·赫尔茨（报告的另一位作者）在报告中写道：“资本主义取得了惊人的成功。”可在美国，它已经变得太肆无忌惮，掠夺性和排他性都太强，实际上沦为权贵资本主义。弗雷德曼称，如今，即便是卡塔尔和罗马尼亚那种“你预想不到的国家，表现都比我们（美国）强。” 赫尔茨接着补充：“（美国）很快就会变成二流国家。” 确切来说，美国是否衰落这些年一直是热议的问题。美国情报机构智库国家情报委员会十年前发布的全球趋势报告认为，美国的国力呈下行趋势。其他持有同样观点的机构认为，美国军事扩张过度，技术准备不够，金融系统存在风险。而且，面对有影响力的新竞争对手，美国干劲不足。 另一些机构认为，美国衰落是夸大其辞。他们指出，美国股市在上涨，制造业实力雄厚，人口不断增加，国内能源领域欣欣向荣。 上述报告的作者收集了许多此前公开的关键指标排名，排位形势发人深省。 1、家庭中位收入 美国排名：27个高收入国家中倒数第一 美国人可能感觉自己是世界领袖，但美国的家庭中位收入只有5.4万美元左右，西班牙、塞浦路斯和卡塔尔都比美国高。许多欧洲国家和工业化国家都排在美国前面。美国的人均中位收入为1.87万美元，也处于较低的水平，并且2000年以来几乎没有变动。现在，即使比较中产阶级的收入，加拿大也已经超过美国。 2、教育与技能 美国排名：23个国家中第16位 经合组织对欧洲成员国和其他发达成员国进行的一项技能调查显示，美国的排名接近榜尾。据调查报告“2013年经合组织技能展望”，23个该组织成员国之中，美国的成人阅读能力排在第16位，成人运算能力倒数第三，利用技术解决问题的能力位居第14名。美国的一些知名大学全球备受推崇，可高等教育在美国再也不是摆脱贫困的有效方式，至少对低收入的少数族裔学生是如此。例如，报告作者援引的研究数据显示，80%的美国白人大学生都就读于财经杂志《巴伦周刊》评选的500强学府，而75%的黑人和拉丁裔学生在两年制的专科学校或者免试入学的非《巴伦周刊》500强大学。穷学生拿到大学学位的可能性也低得多。 3、互联网接入和网速 美国排名：34个国家中第16位 宽带接入对国家工业的发展与繁荣至关重要。而在富有国家之中，美国的互联网普及率较低，网速也慢，上网成本却是最高的。比如在日本，平均1兆字节/秒的上网费为0.04美元，而美国是0.53美元。报告的作者认为，此问题可能源于美国宽带市场竞争太小，市场份额集中在少数企业手中。 4、健康 美国排名：145个国家之中第33位 在至少100万人口的国家之中，美国国民的健康水平落后于许多富有国家。报告作者援引英国医学杂志《柳叶刀》的一项研究称，妊娠和分娩时死亡的美国女性相对较多。在美国，每出生10万名婴儿，就有18.5位母亲死去。沙特和加拿大的孕妇死亡率只有美国的一半。 |
America is declining, in large and important measures, yet policymakers aren’t paying attention. So argues a new academic paper, pulling together previously published data. Consider this: • America’s child poverty levels are worse than in any developed country anywhere, including Greece, devastated by a euro crisis, and eastern European nations such as Poland, Lithuania and Estonia. • Median adult wealth in the US ($39,000) is 27th globally, putting it behind Cyprus and Ireland. • Even when “life satisfaction” is measured, America ranks #12, behind Israel, Sweden and Australia. Overall, America’s per capita wealth, health and education measures are mediocre for a highly industrialized nation. Well-being metrics, perceptions of corruption, quality and cost of basic services, are sliding, too. Healthcare and education spending are funding bloated administrations even while human outcomes sink, the authors say. “We looked at very broad measures, and at individual measures, too,” said co-author Hershey H. Friedman, a business professor at Brooklyn College – City University of New York. The most dangerous sign they saw: rising income and wealth inequality, which slow growth and can spark instability, the authors say. “Capitalism has been amazingly successful,” write Friedman and co-author Sarah Hertz of Empire State College. But it has grown so unfettered, predatory, so exclusionary, it’s become, in effect, crony capitalism. Now places like Qatar and Romania, “countries you wouldn’t expect to be, are doing better than us,” said Friedman. “You can become a second-rate power very quickly,” added Hertz. To be sure, the debate over whether America is on the decline has raged for years. The US National Intelligence Council said in its global trends report a decade ago American power was on a downward trajectory. Others making the case say the US is overstretched militarily, ill-prepared technologically, at-risk financially, or lacking dynamism in the face of influential, new competitors. Arguing decline has been exaggerated, others point to a rising US stock market, manufacturing strength, a growing population, and a domestic energy boom. The authors collect many previously published rankings, and the picture that emerges, however, is sobering: 1. Median household income Rank of U.S.: 27th out of 27 high-income countries Americans may feel like global leaders, but Spain, Cyprus and Qatar all have higher median household incomes than America’s (about $54,000). So does much of Europe and the industrialized world. Per capita median income in the US ($18,700) is also relatively low–and unchanged since 2000. A middle-class Canadian’s income is now higher. 2. Education and skills Rank of U.S.: 16th out of 23 countries The US ranked near the bottom in a skills survey by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which examined European and other developed nations. In its Skills Outlook 2013, the US placed 16th in adult literacy, 21st in adult numeracy out of 23, and 14th in problem-solving. Spots in prestigious US universities are highly sought-after. Yet higher education, once an effective way out of poverty in the US, isn’t anymore – at least not for lower-income and minority students. The authors quote studies showing, for example, that today 80% of white college students attend Barron’s Top 500 schools, while 75% of black and Latino students go to two-year junior colleges or open-admissions (not Top 500) schools. Poor students are also far less likely to complete a degree. 3. Internet speed and access Rank of U.S.: 16th out of 34 countries Broadband access has become essential for industry to grow and flourish. Yet in the US, penetration is low and speed relatively slow versus wealthy nations—thought the cost of internet is among the highest ($0.04 per megabit per second in Japan, for example, versus $0.53 in the US). The problem may be too much concentration and too little competition in the industry, the authors suggest. 4. Health Rank of U.S.: 33rd out of 145 countries When it comes to its citizens’ health, in countries that are home to at least one million people, the US ranks below many other wealthy countries. More American women also are dying during pregnancy and childbirth, the authors note, quoting a Lancet study. For every 100,000 births in the United States, 18.5 women die. Saudi Arabia and Canada have half that maternal death rate. |
