巴菲特指标表明：中国股市或许没有泡沫

    长期以来，沃伦·巴菲特一直看好中国和中国市场。但最近中国股市暴跌，这种情况下他还是那么乐观吗？

    近来中国股市就像坐了过山车。6月份到7月初，上证A股重挫25%，随后反弹14%，本周前两天又大幅滑落10%左右。

    但市场震荡从来不会把巴菲特吓退。这位亿万富翁投资人、伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司的首席执行官经常说，华尔街把波动等同于风险是错的。如果打算长期持有某只股票，波段中有些起伏就没关系。股价终将体现股票的真实价值，只要这个价值高于你的买入价就好。

    巴菲特真正关心的是，不要一开始就以过高价格买入。大约15年前，巴菲特向人们介绍了他眼中的最佳指标，用于判断股市估值水平是过高还是过低。1999年，巴菲特首次在《财富》杂志上写了一篇文章提到这项指标。他说，他喜欢把一国股市的总值和其经济产出，或GDP进行比较。这个比值很像市盈率，但针对的是整体经济，而不是某只股票。巴菲特称，他喜欢在股市市值/经济产出比率介于70-80%之间时买入股票；当这个数字超过133%时，股市估值就开始显得偏高。

    Warren Buffett has long been bullish on China, and its market. But, given the nation’s recent stock market tumbles, would he still be now?

    Chinese stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride lately. Shares on China’s Shanghai exchange dropped roughly 10% on Monday and Tuesday. That comes after a 14% rebound since its 25% plunge in June and early July.

    But volatility has never scared away Buffett. The billionaire investor and CEO of conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A 2.07% often says that Wall Street incorrectly equates volatility with risk. If you plan on holding a stock for the long term, Buffett says, it doesn’t matter what it does along the way. The price of a stock will eventually reflect its true value, which is hopefully higher than what you paid to buy the shares.

    What Buffett is really concerned about is not overpaying in the first place. About a decade-and-a-half ago, Buffett divulged what he said was his favorite metric for determining whether the stock market was overvalued or undervalued. He wrote about it for the first time in an article in Fortune in 1999. (And here’s an update.) Buffett said he likes to compare the total value of the stock market to the output of the economy, or GDP. It’s like a price-to-earnings ratio but for the economy instead of just one stock. Buffett said he likes to buy when stocks are trading at 70%-to-80% of economic output. Anything over 133% begins to look expensive.

    那么，按巴菲特最喜欢的指标衡量，中国股市现状如何呢？让人意外的是，它表明中国股市情况良好，特别是跟美国股市相比。最近滑坡之后，中国股市的总市值（包括沪深两市和有很多中国内地企业上市的香港市场）和中国GDP（包括香港）的比率是110%。

    许多评论人士都认为，中国股市在短短一年半时间里（即最近暴跌之前）上涨140%，已经形成了泡沫。但2014年初中国股市的估值水平实际上还非常低。2014年3月底，中国股市总市值只有GDP的69%（即上图中中国股市总值/GDP曲线的最低点）。

    目前中国股市市值已经上升。但巴菲特指标显示，估值水平也许还不太高。目前美国股市总值和GDP的比率是125%，也就是说，中国股市是个不错的投资对象，至少和美国股市相比是这样。

    当然，这里有一些附带条件。首先，不能仅仅因为中国股市的估值水平比美国股市低，就认为中国的股票价格遭到低估。许多人认为美国股市估值偏高，原因是美国经济增速一直处于中等水平。中国发展迅速，但经济增长率呈下降态势。为股市估值时要把这些因素都考虑在内。

    投资者重视的是稳定性。和巴菲特不同，大多数投资者都不喜欢市场波动。因此，美股市值往往高于美国的GDP。过去五年平均来看，美股市值/GDP比率接近110%。而中国只有90%多一点。如果再往前推，中国的数字可能还要更低。因此，和中国股市相比，美股的估值看起来总是很高。

    同时，这项指标表明，当前中国股市仍被大幅高估的说法有误。该指标的走势完全符合今年5月份巴菲特在股东大会上对中国的评价，当时A股的点位还较高。

    巴菲特在会上预测，中国股市还可延续2-3年牛市，原因是中国人“找到了释放潜力的途径”。此后不久，中国股市站上了历史最高点。约一个月后，A股又开始急剧下挫。不过，这些对巴菲特而言可能都是浮云。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    So, what does Buffett’s favorite market indicator say about Chinese stocks right now? It offers a surprisingly positive message, especially compared to what it is saying right now about the U.S. After China’s recent market drop, the total value of all Chinese stocks (I added up the value of shares on China’s two main exchanges, the Shanghai and the Shenzhen, as well as the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng market, where many mainland Chinese companies have long traded) to China’s GDP (plus Hong Kong’s) is 110%.

    Many commentators have suggested that China’s market 140% rise in just a year-and-a-half (before the recent correction) was a bubble. But back in early 2014, China’s stock market was actually very cheap. At the end of March 2014, China’s total market value was just 69% of GDP. (That’s the lowest point for China in the chart above.) That’s below the territory that Buffett, who is known as a value investor, would usually says it’s time to buy.

    China’s stock market value is higher now, but, the Buffett indicator suggests, perhaps not too high. The U.S. stock market trades at a value of 125% of America’s GDP. That means Chinese stocks are, at least relative to the U.S., a good buy.

    There are, of course, some caveats. First of all, just because China’s stock market is cheaper than the U.S. stock market doesn’t mean Chinese shares are undervalued. Many people think the U.S. stock market is overvalued because the nation’s economic growth has been middling. China is growing fast, but it’s slowing. All of that comes into play when you are valuing a stock market.

    Investors place a premium on reliability. Unlike Buffett, most investors actually don’t like volatility. So the U.S. stock market tends to trade above its GDP. Over the past five years, the U.S. stock market has traded at nearly 110% of GDP. China has traded at just over 90% of GDP. Go back even further, and it’s likely that China’s market has averaged much lower than that. So, compared to China’s market, America’s market always looks expensive.

    Still, the Buffett indicator suggests that the people saying China’s stock market is still way overvalued are wrong. And Buffett’s favorite indicator matches up nicely to what he said about China back in May at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting, when the market was higher.

    The investor predicted the Chinese stock market had another two to three years to run because the country’s population had “found a way to unlock their potential.” He made those comment right around when China’s stocks hit their all time high. They started to tumble about a month later. But none of this is likely to bother Buffett.