中国央行降息降准，分析师怎么看？

    中国股票市场在两天内暴跌超过15%。在此期间，央行一直袖手旁观。但本周二，中国央行宣布下调官方贷款利率和银行存款准备金要求，此举看来似乎是在努力阻止股市崩盘。

    中国人民银行宣布，将一年期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至4.6%，一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至1.75%。另外一项重要举措是，将大型银行的存款准备金率降低0.5个百分点，这一措施有望释放出约1000亿美元的流动性——这笔资金有可能被注入实体经济，而不是囤积在央行。

    本周一，对中国经济增长势头的担忧导致股票和大宗商品价格暴跌，全球股市一片混乱。中国央行的“双降”措施，无异于给全球金融市场降了一场及时雨，各国股市均出现健康反弹。

    然而部分观察家对这一举措感到困惑，因为它似乎规模太小，行动太慢，不足以恢复人们对中国决策者们的信心，即相信他们能够在泡沫破裂的过程中保持市场有序发展。整个七月及八月初，中国政府一直在对股市进行积极干预，希望将股市下跌幅度控制在一定范围之内，但决策者随后似乎逐渐放弃了直接干预，眼看着上证综指再次下跌25%却无动于衷。周二，上证综指下跌7.3%，相比6月份的最高值下跌了43%。

    中国人民银行在官网上发布了一份详细的政策声明，但令人意外的是，声明中并未提及过去两天的股市崩盘。本月初，中国人民银行在21年来首次使人民币对美元贬值，但之后并未推出更多刺激措施，导致市场失望情绪蔓延，过去两天，沪深两地市场的跌幅超过了15%。

    中国人民银行称：“本轮定向降准的目的是进一步增强金融机构支持‘三农’和小微企业的能力，强化正向激励，加大对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度，为大众创业与创新提供金融支持。”

    不可否认，高实际利率一直在惩罚中国的企业部门，进一步加剧了工业品出厂价格连续3年下跌造成的问题。

    关于未来的形势，荷兰银行驻伦敦的分析师尼克•库尼斯认为，中国人民银行在其声明中表示将“更加灵活地”运用政策工具，放弃了其通常引用的“审慎的”决策，因此，未来中国“有可能”采取更加宽松的政策。

    但有分析人士认为，周二的“双降”措施，对于许多公司的生死存亡不太可能产生重大影响。至于这些措施能否阻止沪深市场的暴跌，完全是另外一回事。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    审校：任文科

    After sitting on its hands for two days in which the local stock market fell over 15%, China’s central bank Tuesday cut its official lending rates and its reserve requirements on local banks in what appeared to be an effort to stop the rot.

    The People’s Bank of China said it will cut its one-year lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.6% and its benchmark one-year savings rate by 0.25 point to 1.75%. Just as importantly, it will cut the reserve requirement ratio on most large banks by 0.5 percentage point, freeing up around $100 billion in liquidity that may now be lent to the economy instead of being hoarded at the central bank.

    The move provided an immediate sugar rush to global markets that had, in any case, rebounded healthily after Monday’s turmoil, when fears about the strength of the Chinese economy sent prices for stocks and commodities tumbling.

    However, the action left some observers bemused, appearing too little, too late, to restore confidence in policy-makers’ ability to keep the market orderly as the bubble deflates. The authorities had intervened aggressively through all of July and early August to keep stock losses within bounds, but had appeared to give up direct intervention since then, allowing the Shanghai composite index to fall another 25%. After a 7.3% drop on Tuesday, the SHCOMP is down 43% from its peak in June.

    In an exhaustive policy statement on its website, the PBoC surprisingly made no reference to the carnage on the mainland stock market in the last two days. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have lost over 15% in that time, not least on disappointment that the PBoC hadn’t delivered any more stimulus since allowing the yuan to depreciate against the dollar for the first time in 21 years earlier this month.

    “This round of targeted RRR cuts aims at strengthening the capacity of financial institutions to support the developments of agricultural sector, rural areas and farmers and micro and small enterprises, reinforcing the positive incentive, supporting the key areas and weak sectors in the national economy and providing financial support to popular entrepreneurship and innovation,” the PBoC said.

    There’s no denying that high real interest rates have been punishing China’s corporate sector, compounding the problems caused by three years of deflation in factory gate prices.

    Reading the tea-leaves, Nick Kounis, an analyst with ABN Amro in London, said there is more easing “on the cards” after the PBoC said in its statement that it will use its policy tools “flexibly” and dropped its usual reference to “prudent” policy making.

    But Tuesday’s action is unlikely to make the difference between life and death for many companies on its own, analysts said. And whether it will stop the exodus from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is another matter entirely.