美联储今年不会加息的五个理由

    美联储一直在向投资者暗示，今年将提高短期利率。亚特兰大联储行长丹尼斯•洛克哈特显然是较公开支持加息的联储成员之一。本月早些时候，洛克哈特接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，他预计利率将在9月份上调。本周一（8月27日），他在加州大学伯克利分校发表讲话时重申，就算9月份不加息，美联储也应该在年内提高短期利率。

    眼下，主流经济学家对利率的看法和洛克哈特及其同事的公开表态一致。全美企业经济学家协会最近开展的一项调查也显示，77%的受访经济学家认为美联储最终会在年底前加息。

    不过，尽管外界高度一致地认为今年利率将上升，Hedgeye风险管理公司仍坚持长期以来的观点，那就是美国利率保持在较低水平而且接近于零的时间将长于大多数人的预期。从分析角度坚持这一论点的关键原因有五个，具体如下：

    股市震荡

    首先就是证券市场的波动性。两周来股市起伏不定，这显然可以成为美联储在9月中旬的会议上暂缓加息的借口。实际情况是，和8月初的年内低点相比，衡量美国股市波动幅度的VIX指数几乎上涨了65%。标普500指数则在上周下跌近10%。目前美国股市显然很不平静。由于过早加息而进一步刺激投资者，甚至可能让伤害到消费者信心，应该非美联储所愿。

    The U.S. Federal Reserve has consistently indicated to investors their intentions to raise short-term interest rates this year. One of the more outspoken proponents of raising rates has clearly been Atlanta Fed PresidentDennis Lockhart. In a Wall Street Journal interview earlier this month, Lockhart indicated that he expected rates to increase in September. Then, just this past Monday in a speech in Berkeley, California, he once again reiterated the call for short-term rates to increase this year, even if not in September.

    Right now, the consensus view of mainstream economists echoes the public statements of Lockhart and his Fed colleagues on rates. In fact, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Business Economics, 77% of economists surveyed indicated they believed the Fed would ultimately raise rates before the end of the year.

    So, notwithstanding the strong consensus view that interest rates will increase this year, our firm is sticking with our long-held view that rates will remain both lower and near zero for longer than most people believe. From our analytical perch, there are five key reasons we believe this:

    Stock market drama

    On the first point of equity volatility, the tumultuous last two weeks in the markets offers the Fed clear cover to defer a rate hike at their next meeting in mid-September. The reality is that equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX, is up almost 65% off its year-to-date lows of early August and the S&P500 is down close to 10% over the last week. The U.S. equity markets are clearly rattled right now. The Fed won’t want to rattle investors even more, and potentially consumer confidence further, by prematurely raising rates.

    全球经济全面放缓

    我们曾反复指出，2015年全球经济增速可能放慢，这不同于市场的普遍观点。今年初以来，世界经济走势和我们的预期吻合。亚洲和欧洲经济都比此前预计的表现更弱，加拿大经济则处于衰退边缘。尽管美国经济相对而言确实显得较为强劲，但年初至今的经济增长预期一直稳步下降。实际上，两党连立的国会预算办公室已于本周二将2015年美国GDP增长预期从2.9%下调至2.0%。

    中国经济局势非常不明朗

    中国央行本周二降息，这可能再次表明中国经济远未触底。同时，近几个月公布的众多数据都表明中国经济正在放缓。不久之前出的中国8月份采购经理人指数为47.1，创六年半以来新低。当然，美联储不会根据中国的经济形势来制定货币政策，但他们一定会把中国经济前景纳入考量范围，毕竟中国约占全球GDP的15%，而且为全球经济增长做出了近一半的贡献。

    强势美元

    去年美元兑其他主要货币全面升值，美元指数在这一年里累积上升了近14%。美元走强是其他主要经济体放松货币政策而美联储持鹰派立场的副作用之一。美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦已公开表示，强势美元可能影响美国出口。因此，就利率做出决策时，美联储一定会认真考虑这样一个问题，那就是美国将成为唯一提高利率的主要经济体，而这对美元汇率影响重大。

    通胀率过低

    最后，美国的通胀率远低于美联储目前2%的目标（这一点和美联储实际行动的关系可能最为密切）。提醒一下，美联储的两项任务是尽量促进就业以及保持物价稳定。在第一点上，目前可能已接近充分就业水平。但在第二点上，或者说实际通胀水平上，美联储现在面临的情形是：价格数据表明美国经济正处于通货紧缩边缘，并且远低于2.0%的长期消费者价格（CPI）目标。那么问题来了，为什么要现在加息呢？

    年初的联邦基金利率期货走势表明，当时市场普遍认为美联储将在6月份之前上调利率。而现在，只有少数人相信美联储会在9月中旬加息。正如本文开头所述，市场参与者仍一致预计美国加息将在年内发生。

    但鉴于以上原因，我们公司仍持相反观点。（财富中文网）

    本文作者达里尔•琼斯是投资研究机构Hedgeye风险管理公司研究总监。

    （注：本文仅代表作者观点）

    译者：Charlie

    审校：詹妮

    Slow growth across the globe

    Here at Hedgeye, we’ve been a non-consensus, broken record on the fact that global growth was likely to slow in 2015. So far, this is precisely how the year has played out. Asia is weaker than expected, Europe is weaker than expected, and Canada is verging on recession. While the U.S. economy does seem stronger on a relative basis, even here, growth expectations have been steadily ratcheted down throughout the year. In fact, on Tuesday, the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) took down its 2015 GDP growth expectation from 2.9% to 2.0%.

    China is such a wildcard

    China’s interest rate cut on Tuesday is likely another sign that the Chinese economy has far from bottomed. Additionally, the high-frequency economic data out of China has been consistently slowing over the past few months. More recently, the preliminary reading for the Chinese purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 47.1 in August, which was a six-and-a-half year low. Certainly, the Fed doesn’t manage U.S. interest rate policy to what is happening in China, but they will certainly take into consideration the outlook for a country that contributes about 15% of global GDP and close to 50% of global growth.

    The mighty U.S. dollar

    The U.S. dollar is up against every major global currency over the last year. In aggregate, the U.S. dollar index is up almost 14% over the last year. Dollar strength is one of the unintended consequences of other major economies easing monetary policy, and the Fed taking a hawkish stance. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has already publicly stated that the strong dollar is likely holding down U.S. exports. So, in any rate decision, the fact that the U.S. will be the only major economy with rates going higher will certainly be given considerable consideration as it relates to its impact on the currency.

    Inflation is super low

    Finally (and likely the most relevant to actual Fed actions), is the fact that U.S. inflation is well under the current 2.0% target. As a refresher, the Fed’s dual mandate is to maximize employment and to maintain stable prices. On the first point of employment, arguably, we are close to maximum employment. On the second point of stable prices, or in effect inflation, the Fed currently is facing an economy that is reporting price data that is borderline deflationary and certainly well below the long run Consumer Price Index target of 2.0%. Which begs the question: why raise interest rates now?

    As highlighted in the chart of Fed Fund futures at the start of the year, when the year started the overwhelming consensus was that the Fed would raise rates by June. At this point, only a minority believe that Fed will raise rates in mid-September. As noted at the outset, the consensus does still believe a rate hike will occur this year.

    For the reasons outlined above, our firm continues to take the other side of that view.

    Daryl Jones is director of research at Hedgeye Risk Management. Follow him on Twitter @HedgeyeDJ.