美联储加息讲的是“狼来了”的故事？

    美联储9月份货币政策会议已经结束，利率依然为零。

    它做出这样的决定有理有据。新兴市场经济体面临着不同程度的麻烦，全球市场的反应则是能源价格一直较低以及美元走强。在这些因素的共同影响下，美国的通胀率处于相当低的水平。美联储公开市场委员会成员预测的2015年通胀率中值仅为0.4%，远低于2%的官方目标。近10年来，美国通胀率一直未曾触及这样的水平。

    同时，美联储对充分就业时对应的长期失业率预估持续下调。2014年9月，美联储认为充分就业时的长期失业率将不低于5.2%。尽管目前这个数字是5.1%，但鉴于长期失业者以及非自愿兼职者如此之多，有理由认为官方对充分就业时失业率水平预估还有很大的下行空间。美联储公开市场委员会成员目前预计的长期失业率中值为4.9%。

    尽管通胀率一直没有达到美联储的目标，尽管美联储下调了充分就业和经济增长预期，但观察一下公开市场委员会成员各自的预测数字就会发现，他们似乎相信今年底以前这些指标仍将上升。

    那么，美联储究竟为什么会一直这样认为呢？正如《华尔街日报》今年8月报道的那样，失业率下降总会造成通胀率上升最多也只能算是一种牵强的理论。呈下降状态的失业率和通胀率的关系如下图所示：

    The Fed’s September meeting has come and gone, and interest rates remain at zero.

    The reasoning behind the Fed’s decision is sound. With emerging market economies in various states of disarray, global markets have responded by keeping energy prices low and the dollar strong. These forces have conspired to keep inflation here at home quite low. Federal Open Market Committee members’ median projection of inflation for 2015 is just 0.4%, well below it’s 2% target, which it has failed to reach for close to a decade.

    Meanwhile, the Fed’s projections for what constitutes maximum employment continue to fall. In September 2014, the Fed saw unemployment in the long run going no lower than 5.2%. Well, now it’s at 5.1%, and with long-term unemployment and involuntary part-time employment so high, there’s reason to believe that the official rate has plenty of room to fall. The median FOMC member now sees the long-term rate at 4.9%.

    Even though the Fed continues to miss its inflation targets and then revises down its estimates of full employment and economic growth, if you look at individual members projections, it would appear they believe that rates will still rise before the end of the year.

    But why exactly is the Fed holding onto this idea? AsThe Wall Street Journal pointed out in August, the theory that lower unemployment will always lead to higher inflation is tenuous at best. The following chart shows the relationship between falling unemployment and inflation:

    另外，其他陷入麻烦的经济体尚未有脱困的迹象。到目前为止，它们对美国经济的影响表现为进口价格下降和美元升值。这也许就是几个月来美国市场通胀预期持续下降的原因之一。

    Second, the trouble abroad, which has so far filtered to the U.S. economy in the form of lower import prices and a stronger dollar, doesn’t show signs of abating. That may be one reason why market-based inflation expectations have been falling for months now:

    市场认为通胀率上升的局面不会很快出现，而且今年年底前利率也不会上扬，这和公开市场委员会成员的普遍观点不同。正如《金融时报》指出的那样，美联储的预测数字公布后的短短几分钟之内，“交易员们就根据彭博对联邦基金期货的推算分析认为，美联储在今年12月以前采取行动的可能性约为49%。”

    美国前财长拉里·萨默斯上周早些时候曾指出，市场不相信美联储会提高利率增加了后者加息的难度。因为在这种情况下，美联储上调利率引发的金融市场震荡将有损于经济。美联储再次发现，市场参与者不相信他们的话，而这正是目前美联储需要解决的沟通问题。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    The market doesn’t see inflation rising anytime soon, and it doesn’t agree with the median FOMC member that interest rates will go up by the end of 2015. As the the Financial Times points out, just minutes after the Fed projections were released, “Traders bet there is roughly a 49 per cent chance that the Fed moves by December, according to calculations on federal funds futures by Bloomberg.”

    As Larry Summers argued earlier this week, the fact that markets don’t believe you’re going to raise rates makes it more difficult to raise rates because it sets up a situation where a move by the Fed can create economy-damaging volatility in the financial markets. The Fed has once again found itself in a position where market participants don’t believe what it is saying, and that’s a communication problem it needs to fix now.