全球经济正走向衰退？

    就经济扩张期而言，美国这次的持续时间可谓相当“长”。二战以来，两次衰退之间的平均间隔约为58个月。而本轮经济周期已经延续了81个月，人们自然想知道经济会不会马上滑坡。

    同时，一组令人担忧的海外经济数据显示，新兴市场的问题开始影响发达国家：

    ·设在威斯巴登的德国联邦统计局10月8日公布，作为欧洲实力最强的经济体，8月份德国出口额环比下降5.2%。

    ·英国经济增速一直高于大多数发达国家，但近期数据表明，英国8月份建筑业产值下降4.3%，创2012年以来最大单月跌幅。

    ·日本的情形也好不到哪里去。今年夏季日本工业产值大幅下降，有些人据此认为这个全球第三大经济体已经重新陷入衰退。

    美国前财长拉里·萨默斯也认为今后全球经济将遇到更多麻烦。上周四，萨默斯在一篇题为《全球经济着实危险》的专栏文章中指出，经济越发失衡，人口增长缓慢，需要加强金融监管，而且眼下的创新并没有非常明显的劳动密集型特征，这些都表明经济增速将放慢。

    花旗集团首席经济学家威廉·布伊特也提出了全球经济衰退是否即将或已经到来的问题。

    布伊特对全球经济衰退的定义和对美国这样一个单一国家的经济衰退的定义不同。虽然他觉得全球经济增速并未下降，但他确实认为，经济增长率已经低于其潜在增速，而且问题正在变得越发严重。上周，他在写给客户的报告中指出：

    “尽管全球实际产出呈正增长态势，但已经低于其潜在增速。我们对后者的估算值为3%，这就是说产出缺口正在扩大。因此，如果产出增长率低于潜在增速的情况再持续一年，就意味着按我们的这两项标准衡量，全球经济可能会重新陷入衰退。”

    萨默斯认为，出现令人担心的经济数据只是经济陷入困境的开始，因为引发他所说的“长期经济停滞”的因素都不会很快消失。他指出，2008年以来，“新兴市场的强劲表现”是全球经济增长的唯一动力。然而，目前投资正在迅速向发达债券市场回流，从而进一步压低利率。萨默斯写道：

    “没时间洋洋得意了。有人认为经济增长缓慢只是2008年金融危机的短暂后遗症，这种想法实在荒谬。最新数据表明，美国经济增速正在下降，欧洲和日本已经开始减速。全球经济濒临停滞时的最主要危险就是衰退。”

    萨默斯在文章中称，富裕国家需要率先采取防范措施。第一步就是将利率保持在接近于零的水平，直到出现明显的通胀迹象。但更重要的是执行“扩张性财政政策”，或者说像美国、德国和英国政府那样，借助全球经济形成的低利率环境来筹措资金，并将其投入基础设施领域。

    可惜的是，对萨默斯的拥趸来说，政府支出看来不会在短期内上升。多年来，德国政府一直不同意提高支出水平，美国和英国的保守党也在竭尽全力地削减预算，而不是提高开支水平。

    萨默斯的观点还面临着另外一个不利因素，那就是美国并没有像世界其他地区那样出现经济放缓迹象。当然，9月份就业数据没有达到预期，一年来标普500指数也跌跌不休。但在2015年，美国平均每个月能创造差不多20万个就业机会，房地产交易和新开工面积均保持上升势头，汽车销量也刚刚刷新10年来的最高纪录。

    大多数经济学家仍认为，至少一年内美国不会陷入衰退。上个月，彭博采访了31位经济学家，其中只有八人预计美国将在2018年以前出现经济衰退。但考虑到新兴市场的经济问题已经传导到日本和欧洲，我们有理由对主流观点保留一点怀疑。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    校对：詹妮

    As far as economic expansions go, our’s is pretty long in the tooth. Since World War II, the average length of time between recessions is about 58 months. With the current cycle clocking in at 81, it’s natural to wonder if the next downturn is imminent.

    Meanwhile, a worrying level of data from abroad shows that the troubles in emerging markets are beginning to affect the developed world:

    • In Germany, Europe’s strongest economy, exports fell 5.2% in August from the previous month, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden announced on Thursday.

    • In the U.K., where growth had been outstripping most of the rest of the developed world, recent data shows output in Britain’s construction sector plunged by 4.3% in August, the sharpest monthly drop since 2012.

    • In Japan, things don’t look much better. Serious declines in industrial output over the summer suggest to some that the world’s third largest economy has already fallen back into recession.

    Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also sees global economic trouble up ahead. In an op-ed published on Thursday titled “The global economy is in serious danger,” he argues that rising economic inequality, slowing population growth, and the increased need for financial regulation, and the fact that the innovation that is taking place isn’t very labor intensive all point to a slowdown.

    Another analyst asking whether we are headed for, or already in, a global recession is Willem Buiter, Chief Economist at Citigroup.

    Buiter relies on a different definition of global recession than what is used to define such an event in a single advanced economy like the United States. While he doesn’t see global growth contracting, he does believe that growth has already fallen below its potential, and that the problem is only going to get worse. In a note to clients this week, Buiter writes:

    “Actual global output growth, although positive . . . is already below likely potential global output growth, which we estimate at 3%, meaning that the output gap is widening. Another year of sub- potential growth would therefore imply that the world economy would probably be back in recession according to both our criteria.”

    Summers thinks the worrying economic data we are seeing is just the beginning of troubling economic times, because none of the factors contributing to what he has called “secular stagnation” are set to dissipate anytime soon. He argues that the only thing propping up the global economy since 2008 has been “the strength of emerging markets.” But investment there is quickly reversing course, finding its way back into developed bond markets, pushing interest rates even lower than they already are. Summers writes:

    “This is no time for complacency. The idea that slow growth is only a temporary consequence of the 2008 financial crisis is absurd. The latest data suggest growth is slowing in the United States, and it is already slow in Europe and Japan. A global economy near stall speed is one where the primary danger is recession.”

    In his op-ed, Summers argues that the wealthy world needs to take the lead in preventing this outcome, first by keeping interest rates near zero until there is a clear sign of inflation. More important, however, is to implement “expansionary fiscal policy,” or borrow at the low rates the global economy is offering governments like the U.S., Germany and the U.K. to invest in infrastructure.

    Unfortunately for those who agree with Summers, more government spending doesn’t appear to be coming anytime soon. For years, Germany has resisted calls to spend more, while the conservative parties in the United States and the U.K. are doing their best to cut budgets, not expand them.

    Further hurting Summers’ case is the fact that the United States is not seeing the same signs of slowing growth as the rest of the world. Sure, September’s jobs report was disappointing, and the S&P 500 has been moving sideways all year. But job growth in 2015 still sits at just under 200,000 new positions per month, while home sales and housing starts figures have been on the upswing. And auto sales just hit a new 10-year high.

    Most economists still see the U.S. avoiding recession for at least another year. Last month, Bloomberg surveyed a group of 31 economists, and eight predicted that a recession would hit the United States before 2018. But as troubles in emerging markets bring economic woes to Japan and Europe, it makes sense to question the conventional wisdom.