巴黎恐袭后，欧洲政策或有五大变局

    在众多影响之中，首当其冲的可能就是旅游业和消费者支出。这些方面受到的打击最为明显，但其持续时间也可能最短。毕竟，想想看，《查理周刊》（Charlie Hebdo）今年1月遭受袭击之后，看起来也并没有对法国经济产生持续影响。但要说完全没有影响又是肯定不可能的，最无法具体估量的影响在于政策制定方面。这种影响可能是间接的，但却又具有深远意义。

    值得一提的是，恐怖袭击带来的影响可能很深远，但却未必都是负面的。

    1、公共监控级别可能提升

    几乎可以肯定，类似巴黎恐怖袭击这样的行动，必定需要缜密的预谋和较强的协调沟通，这其中大部分预谋都会利用到电子通信技术。因此，此次事件之后，欧洲舆论对于政府监控的争论将明显倾向于支持，因为选民将更加重视安全，而降低对隐瞒赌博、不忠和逃税等问题的关注。

    但我们必须清楚，即使今后加强监控，也未必能禁绝这类袭击。事实上，法国最近刚刚通过了一项反恐法案，已经采取了欧洲最为强力的监控措施，但看起来并没什么作用。这次袭击也让支持保护隐私的人倍感尴尬，其中甚至包括苹果公司CEO蒂姆·库克，他曾表示个人通讯隐私权神圣不可侵犯。

    而在英国，两周前，英国内阁以臭名昭著的“窃听者宪章”（Snooper’s Charter）为蓝本重新提出了类似草案。该法案不仅首次明确允许警方使用黑客手段进入公民电脑系统，收集大量私人通信数据，还以法律形式要求电信公司和数据供应商，协助警方获取加密信息。可以想见，此次巴黎恐怖袭击之后，该法案在英国国会获得通过的可能性大大增强，监控手段甚至可能进一步强化。

    2、欧洲移民政策可能完蛋

    虽然目前消息尚未确认，但一些迹象已经显示，至少有一位袭击巴黎的恐怖分子是以难民身份经希腊边境进入欧洲的。这恰恰是欧洲右翼——不论温和派还是激进派一直在警告的。面对如此暴力袭击，欧洲国家收容大批穆斯林移民的热情将会大受打击。

    事实上，穆斯林移民原本就难以融入当地社会，欧洲各国也并不欢迎难民，不排斥已经算是好的了。因此，匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托、法国极右翼政党“国民阵线”领导人玛丽娜·勒庞等欧洲政要，将会坚持反移民观点，态度甚至会更加强硬。

    更为重要的是，欧盟委员会此前按固定配额分配16万难民的计划本就困难重重，如今更将走入死胡同。如果袭击加剧了欧洲国家对于移民问题的分歧，那么，其他经济事务方面的决策，也有可能会受到波及陷入停滞。

    3、申根协议可能终结

    持申根签证可以自由出入欧洲区域内各国，这是欧盟最伟大的成就之一。然而，今年的难民危机已迫使欧盟成员国相继重启边检制度。最先恢复的是巴尔干半岛国家，当成千上万涌来的移民造成恐慌后，他们不得不在边境筑起了大范围的铁丝网。如今，瑞典、德国这些移民青睐的目的地国家也祭出了边检这一招。

    如果倡导边境自由出入的“申根协议”土崩瓦解，这不但会打击欧盟内部的跨境贸易、货运业务，也很可能在更为微妙地层面上削弱欧盟区域的商业竞争力。

    4、默克尔的政治生涯或走到尽头？

    对德国总理默克尔而言，巴黎恐怖袭击如同一柄双刃剑。在网络安全方面，她是保护隐私权的重要支持者（毕竟她本人就曾被美国国安局窃听）；而对于以穆斯林为主的庞大移民，她主张大幅吸收，一副“我们应付得了”的态度，这无异于下了一笔不小的政治赌注。

    纵观默克尔的政治生涯，她曾在一场场展示领导力的盛大演出中，勇敢地赌上了政治资本。但这次，她很可能押错了注。此前，由于支持针对欧元区边缘国家的七次救助，默克尔在国内很不得人心，但总体算是挺了过来，但这次却有些不妙，她的选民支持率已经下滑。巴黎的袭击不太可能给默克尔的政治生涯画上句号，却会助长批评者的声势。批评人士会指责默克尔过于乐观，低估了穆斯林移民的风险。

    假如默克尔下台，也许不会迅速危及德国经济，但如果继任的德国总理（可能是现任德国财长沃夫冈·朔伊布勒）和她的观念不同，拒绝资助其他欧元区国家，那么，欧元区今后就会碰到麻烦。

    5、叙利亚和平有望

    从地缘局势的最新进展看，政治谈判尚有光明在前，并非世界末日。虽然没有巴黎恐怖袭击的风险那么引人瞩目，但最近维也纳会谈的成果也带来一线希望。

    在维也纳，约20个国家和国际机构就叙利亚过渡为新政府治国的日程安排达成一致。会议制定了明确的政治目标，认为若要协同采取有效打击“伊斯兰国”的军事行动，关键的前提便是实现过渡。叙利亚重获和平将意味着当前全球最大的地缘政治风险被消除。如果这一问题达成和解，那么，欧盟和俄罗斯就乌克兰冲突达成和解的几率也会提高。（财富中文网）

    翻译：Pessy

    审校：夏林

    It is, of course, far too early to do anything more than speculate. But common sense says that there must be consequences for business and for the European economy from the attacks in Paris that appear to have added a whole new dimension to the threat from Islamic State. The first-round impacts, such as a likely hit to tourism and consumer spending (think of all those Christmas markets that make such juicy soft targets) are the most obvious and likely to be the most short-lived. There was, after all, no discernible lasting economic impact from the attacks on the magazine Charlie Hebdo earlier this year. But there are obvious imponderables that could have huge, if indirect, impacts, most of them through the policy channel. Importantly, not all of them are negative.

    1、Surveillance is likely to increase.

    The European debate on surveillance is likely to lurch sharply in favor of snooping, as voters put more emphasis on security and less on concealing their secret gambling habits, infidelity and tax evasion. Attacks as sophisticated and coordinated as these require a lot of advance planning and communication, and it seems hardly credible that a large part of that would not have been electronic. It doesn’t necessarily follow that more surveillance will stop this kind of attack—France only recently passed a law with the most far-reaching snooping powers in Europe, and it doesn’t seem to have done much good—but the attacks are a big embarrassment for all those, notably Apple AAPL -2.90% CEO Tim Cook, who argue that the privacy of individuals’ communications is sacrosanct. The U.K. two weeks ago re-introduced a watered-down bill of its notorious “Snooper’s Charter”, which for the first time explicitly allows police to hack into computers, and collect large volumes of personal communications data. It also legally obliges telecoms and data companies to help police operations to bypass encryption. The bill now faces a much easier passage through parliament, and may even be beefed up again in reaction to the attacks.

    2、Europe’s migrant policy is toast.

    Nothing has been confirmed yet, but some evidence points to at least one of the attackers having gained entry into Europe at the Greek border, posing as a refugee. This is precisely what Europe’s right, in both its polite and coarser wings, has been warning about. The willingness to accept large volumes of hard-to-assimilate Muslim migrants, already lukewarm at best, will suffer badly from such revelations. Figures like Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, or French National Front leader Marine Le Pen will feel vindicated and be emboldened in their anti-immigrant rhetoric. The European Commission’s plan to distribute 160,000 migrants across the continent by fixed quotas, already running into huge difficulties, is now dead in the water. More importantly, if the attacks deepen divisions over how to deal with migrant flows, then the risk of that issue paralyzing decisions on other economic matters increases.

    3、The end of border-free Europe.

    Getting rid of internal borders was one of the great achievements of the European Union. But the migrant crisis has seen one country after another reinstate border checks–first in the Balkans, where the sense of panic at being overrun by the arriving thousands has led to a proliferation of wire fences, but now in the ‘preferred destination’ countries of Sweden and Germany. If the so-called ‘Schengen’ border-free zone collapses, then that could hit both cross-border trade and the trucking business, as well as doing broader, but less tangible, damage to business confidence from seeing Europe unravel.

    4、The end of Angela Merkel?

    The Paris attacks are a double-whammy for the German Chancellor. She has been one of the biggest advocates of privacy over security (she was, after all, spied on by the NSA), and she took a huge political gamble with her “We’ll manage it” approach to absorbing a vast flow of largely Muslim migrants. For once in her political life, she staked her political capital on a big, brave show of leadership, and it looks more and more like a losing bet. Her poll ratings, which survived seven hugely unpopular Eurozone bailouts, have slumped. The Paris outrages are unlikely to finish her off, but they will embolden those who criticise her for complacency about the risks of Muslim immigration. There may be no immediate threat to the economy from her departure, but if she is replaced, it will likely be by someone (maybe Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble) who doesn’t share her qualms about ejecting fellow members of the Eurozone the next time they get into trouble.

    5、Peace in Syria

    It’s not all doom and gloom. The attacks risk overshadowing the outcome of today’s talks in Vienna, where the major powers agreed on a timeline for a transition to a new government in Syria. Agreeing to a political target is the key prerequisite for effective, coordinated military action against Islamic State (building on this week’s operations against ‘Jihadi John‘ and the retaking of Sinjar in northern Iraq by Kurdish militias. Peace in Syria would end the biggest geopolitical risk in the world today. It could also improve the chances of a settlement between Europe and Russia over the Ukraine conflict, another big drag on both sides’ economies.