比尔•格罗斯警示2016年投资市场

近日，著名的债券投资人比尔•格罗斯表示，低利率让毫无用处的“僵尸公司”（zombie corporations）得到了喘息机会，由此，他警告投资者，2016年需要对投资组合去风险化。

由格罗斯操盘的骏利全球无限制债券基金（Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund）规模达14亿美元，他曾在今年早些时候表示，美联储应该将利率提高到更正常的水平，因为零利率水平正在伤害实体经济，破坏保险公司的资产负债表和养老基金。

格罗斯在其12月份的《投资展望》中写道：“美联储按下货币按钮的速度越快，持有金融资产的相对风险就越高。在2016年，我会逐渐进行投资组合去风险化，降低信用风险，减持股票投资，更加注重收回资金，而不是实现两位数的投资回报。”

格罗斯警告，实体经济的负面反馈回路“将终止股市和债券的上行趋势。投资者会像卡通人物大笨狼怀尔一样四处张望，想知道还有多久才能触底。”大笨狼怀尔总是在追逐哔哔鸟的时候，跳出宽阔的峡谷，在稀薄的空气中飞行很长距离之后才往下看，最终摔下悬崖。

格罗斯把美联储比作赌场，他说，“美联储不停地印钱，就好像在生产数不清的筹码，但他们永远也不会赎回这些筹码。实际上，用赌场来形容今天的全球货币政策，再恰当不过。”

“多年来，日本在量化宽松政策上变本加厉，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉几年前所说的‘无论付出什么代价’，就像赌博里加倍下注时的承诺一样，不过是假象而已。”加倍下注法是指赌博时持续加倍下注，希望最终能赢，并且能获得净利润。

欧洲央行“加倍下注时的承诺”发誓要通过扩大量化宽松和增加购买抵押品，使欧洲经济恢复平衡，使通胀达到2%的目标，直到欧元汇率下降，欧元区经济改善，通胀达到目标。

格罗斯认为，人为降低的汇率让毫无用处的“僵尸公司”得到了喘息机会，却破坏了保险公司和养老基金的商业模式，因为这些公司的收益太低，无法支付承诺的收益。格罗斯说：“低利率让储蓄者失去了‘钱生钱’的能力，无法使他们的退休基金得以增长，因此，他们所期望的未来生活方式也难以为继。”

格罗斯说，这就是经济学家肯尼斯•罗格夫和卡门•莱因哈特所说的“金融抑制”。（财富中文网）

译者:刘进龙/汪皓

审校：任文科

“I would gradually de-risk portfolios as we move into 2016. Less credit risk, reduced equity exposure, placing more emphasis on the return of your money than a double-digit return on your money.”

Bill Gross, the closely watched bond investor, on December 3 said that low interest rates are keeping alive “zombie corporations” that are unproductive and warned investors to de-risk portfolios into the new year.

Gross, who oversees the $1.4 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, has said since earlier this year that the U.S. central bank should raise interest rates to more normal levels, because zero-bound levels are harming the real economy and destroying insurance company balance sheets and pension funds.

“The faster and faster central bankers press the monetary button, the greater and greater the relative risk of owning financial assets,” Gross wrote in his December Investment Outlook. “I would gradually de-risk portfolios as we move into 2016. Less credit risk, reduced equity exposure, placing more emphasis on the return of your money than a double-digit return on your money.”

Gross warned that the negative feedback loop from the real economy “will halt the ascent of stock and bond prices, and investors will look around like Wile E. Coyote wondering how far is down.” The cartoon character Wile E. Coyote was forever leaping across wide chasms in pursuit of the Road Runner, flying long distances in thin air, but then looking down and falling off a cliff.

Gross likens central banks to casinos. “They print money as if they were manufacturing endless numbers of chips that they’ll never have to redeem. Actually, a casino is an apt description for today’s global monetary policy.”

“Japan for years has doubled down on its Quantitative Easing, and Mario Draghi’s statement of several years’ past, ‘Whatever it takes’ – is a Martingale promise in disguise,” Gross said. Martingale is a gambling system of continually doubling the stakes in the hope of an eventual win that must yield a net profit.

The “Martingale promise” vows to get the Euroland economy back to even and inflation up to 2% by increasing QE and the collateral it buys until the Euro currency declines, the euro zone economy improves, and inflation approaches target, Gross said.

Artificially low interest rates have kept alive “zombie corporations that are unproductive” and destroy business models such as insurance companies and pension funds because yields are too low to pay promised benefits, Gross said. “They turn savers into financial eunuchs, unable to reproduce and grow their retirement funds to maintain expected future lifestyles.”

Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart label this “financial repression,” Gross said.