美联储加息会如何影响我们的生活？

作为经济史上人尽皆知的秘密之一，美联储（Federal Reserve）12月16日正式将基准利率提高到0.25%。这是美联储自2006年以来的首次加息，金融危机最后残余的影响也将就此终结。

但现在好戏才刚刚开始。过去七年间，美国的利率一直保持在历史最低水平——零利率。经过如此长时间的低利率，人们对于加息之后的未来形势，似乎更多了一些不安。过去几个月，股票市场一直动荡不安。一方面是由于石油价格问题，投资者担心，所投资的公司（尤其是能源公司）可能无力偿还债务。但至少有一部分担忧源自利率。

这是因为，美联储的加息决定非同寻常。通常情况下，七名委员会成员同意通过加息来抵御通胀。但这一次，美国的通货膨胀并不严重。而且相比美联储前几次加息，现在，美国经济的增长速度更加乏力。但美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦宣布的决定，似乎是希望为美联储提供一种应对未来经济衰退的方法。在零利率的情况下，如果美联储需要帮助刺激市场，其可用的手段有限。

此外，在欧洲和日本央行为了渡过经济衰退的难关而继续降息时，美国央行的加息显得有些奇怪。加息之后，市场的波动性可能进一步加剧。

那么，加息到底对你我有何影响呢？

首先来看股市，首次加息很有可能主要反映在股市上。接下来将是更大的未知数。在货币市场，安联投资分析师马丁•霍克斯坦估计，投资者认为到2017年，美联储将加息到1.2%。但据美联储的经济预测显示，至2017年，美国的利率水平将达到2.6%。然而，从历史角度来看，霍克斯坦发现，分析师低估了前三个加息周期。因此，霍克斯坦补充说，1.4个百分点的差异是“巨大的，可能导致某些问题。”

如果美联储加息的幅度和速度高于投资者预期，这对于股市来说绝非好消息。高盛表示，在紧缩周期的第一年，股市的估值会下降10%。在过去的加息周期内，能源、工业和科技部门在股市的表现，通常优于其他经济部门。但考虑到石油价格下跌和新兴市场的需求下降，至少对于能源和工业部门来说，这一次的情况可能截然不同。

加息时，银行通常会成为潜在购买对象。大银行的股票价格最近也一直在上涨。这是因为，只要银行不需要将提高的利息转嫁给贷款者，他们便可以从加息中获益。但美国教师退休基金会（TIAA-CREF）的数据显示，目前金融部门的表现比整体市场高出14%，比历史平均水平下降了4%。利率提高时，公用事业部门的表现往往更差。除了2004年的昙花一现，公用事业部门的平均收益率为-5.8%。但2004年表明，我们有可能看到意外之喜。在那一个紧缩周期内，公用事业部门的股票上涨了28%。

在债券方面，利率上涨，债券价格便会下跌。而这一次的情况可能更糟糕。这是因为目前的利率水平过低，难以弥补价格下跌的损失。霍克斯坦使用目前的债券收益率，根据以往的加息幅度进行了模拟，结果发现，如果美联储按照市场预想的那样上调利率，短期国债价格将下跌1.3%，而长期国债将下跌10.4%。目前，十年期国债的收益率为2.3%。这意味着，你需要用五年时间，才能赚回在一年中因价格下跌损失的利息。因此，虽然债券通常都是更为安全的投资选择，但现在的形势可能有所不同，尤其是当前，投资者对公司信用质量的担忧日盛。

能从加息中受益的或许是银行储蓄用户。据美联储的数据显示，美国家庭和非盈利机构（美联储将两个类别合二为一）的银行储蓄账户存款总额为8.3万亿美元。加息0.25%可能意味着210亿美元的额外利息，或每个美国家庭每年约163美元。但需要重申的是，我们并不确定银行是否会将额外的利息转移给储户。

而在借款方面，利率和多数人支付的信用卡利息已经存在巨大的差异。银率网（Bankrate.com）分析师格雷格•麦克布莱德表示，通常要超过一次加息之后才会影响到信用卡利率。可变利率住房贷款通常会每年调整一次。麦克布莱德认为，如果在你的下一次贷款调整之前，美联储加息两次或三次，你会发现自己的住房贷款“利率显著提高”。

但多数借款利率，如30年抵押贷款，都与长期利息挂钩，而长期利率通常会在经济预期好转时上涨。因此，如果美联储的加息最终不会让我们陷入经济衰退，住房和汽车贷款成本也会上涨，消费者将为此埋单。只是希望这些额外增加的成本，就当是我们为经济好转所付出的小小代价吧。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

In one of the worst kept secrets in economic history, the Federal Reserve is expected to officially increasing its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% on Wednesday. It’s the first increase since 2006 and it ends the last remaining hangover of the financial crisis.

But now the fun begins. Rates have sat at historic levels–zero–for seven years to the day. After such a long stretch of cheap money, there appears to be more nervousness than usual about what will happen. The stock market has gyrated over the past month. Some of that has been because of the price of oil, and worries that corporations, particularly energy companies, may not be able to pay back their debts. But at least some of the worry is about interest rates.

That’s because Wednesday’s decision is unusual. Typically, the seven board members agree to move up interest rates to fight off inflation. But this time around there hasn’t been much inflation. And the economy is growing at a weaker pace than when the Fed has hiked rates before. Nonetheless, Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s announcement appears to come out of a desire to give the Fed a way to counter a downturn in the economy in the future. Keeping the rate at zero gives it little recourse if the Fed needs to help stimulate markets.

It’s also strange for the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates, while central banks in Europe and Japan’s continue to lower as their respective interest rates in order to try to get over the last hump of their own downturns. That’s likely to add to the volatility of the market after a rate hike occurs.

How will this impact you?

For stocks, the first interest rate increase is likely mostly priced into the stock market. What happens next is a bigger unknown. Looking at money markets, Martin Hochstein of Allianz Global Investors estimates that investors believe that the Fed will eventually raise the interest rate to 1.2% by 2017. But according to the Fed’s economic projections, rates are likely to reach 2.6% by 2017. Historically speaking, though, Hochstein found that analysts underestimated the last three rate hike cycles. So that 1.4 percentage point difference is a “huge gap that could start some troubles,” added Hochstein.

If the Fed ends up raising rates higher and quicker than investors expect that will likely be bad for the stock market. Goldman Sachs says that valuations of the stock market tend to drop 10% in the first year of tightening cycles. In the past, shares of energy, industrials, and technology often outperform other areas of the economy during a rising rate cycle. But given dropping oil prices and lower demand from emerging markets, things may play out differently this time, at least for energy and industrials.

Banks often get pointed at as potential buys when interest rates rise. And shares of the biggest banks have been rising lately. That’s because they can benefit from higher interest rates as long as they don’t have to pass that higher interest off to borrowers. But TIAA-CREF’s data shows that financials only outperformed the market 14% of the time, dropping an average of 4%. Utilities tend to underperform when rates rise. The sector has returned -5.8% on average, if you exclude 2004’s blip. But 2004 shows there can be surprises. In that tighten cycle, utilities were up 28%.

For bonds, when interest rates rise, prices fall. And this time could be worse than usual. That’s because interest rates are so low, they won’t compensate for price drops. Using today’s yield, Hochstein ran simulations using past interest rate rises, finding that short term Treasuries could fall as much as 1.3% while long-term ones could drop 10.4%, if rate hikes proceed as the market thinks. The current yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is 2.3%. Meaning it could take you five years to earn back in interest what you lose in price over a year. So while bonds are typically a safer place for your investments, these days that likely not the case, especially considering the growing worries about corporate credit quality.

The benefit could be anyone who has money in a bank account. According to data from the Federal Reserve, Americans households and non-profits (the Fed combines the two categories) have just over $8.3 trillion in bank savings accounts. So a 0.25% increase could mean an extra $21 billion in interest, or about $163 per American household, a year. But, again, it’s not clear that banks will actually pass that extra interest along to savers.

As for borrowing, there is already a large gap between interest rates and what most people pay on their credit cards. Greg McBride of Bankrate.com says it usually takes more than one interest rate hike to impact credit card rates. Variable rate home loans usually adjust once a year. If the Fed raises rates two or three times before your next loan adjustment, then “you could see a noticeable interest rate increase” on your house payments, adds McBride.

But most borrowing rates, like 30-year mortgages, are tied to longer term interest rates, which typical rise when the economy is expected to do better. So if the Fed ends up raising interest rates without sending us into a recession, then borrowing costs for houses and autos could go up too, and that will cost consumers. But hopefully the extra cost will be a small price to pay for a better economy.