两张图读懂人民币真实走势

中国人民银行日前决定，不再以过去几年的人民币-美元双边汇率为基准，而要参考一揽子货币对人民币进行管理，这可能预示着人民币兑美元汇率将进一步下跌。这也是一次切实的改革。

人民币兑美元可能会走弱，因为中国正在放宽货币政策，而美国正在收紧银根，美联储加息在即。这是一次真正的改革，因为如果人民币被人为地与美元捆绑，就无法实现真正的自由化。

目前，中国最不需要的就是通过汇率渠道自动收紧货币政策。由于生产者物价指数以每年近6%的速度下降，而中国人民银行的官方利率仍然高于4%，因此中国的实际利率已经很高了。

China’s central bank’s decision on Friday to manage the country’s currency against a basket of currencies, instead of pegging it solely to the dollar like it has for years, might foreshadow more weakening against the U.S. dollar. It is also actual reform.

The currency may weaken against the dollar because China’s monetary policies are loosening while those in the U.S. are finally starting to tighten, possibly beginning with interest rate rises this week. The move is also real reform because the currency can’t liberalize until it loses the artificial peg to the U.S. dollar.

Right now, the last thing that Beijing needs is an automatic tightening of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel. Real interest rates are already cripplingly high because producer prices are falling at an annual rate of nearly 6%, while the People’s Bank of China’s official interest rates are still well over 4%.

到目前为止，粗心的观察者可能还没有注意到美元急剧升值，以及连带的人民币升值。不过由Capital Economics提供的表格显示，与邻国货币相比，被迫升值的人民币已经贵得多。

2014年以后飙升的蓝线证明，相比亚洲邻国和欧洲合作伙伴的货币，人民币的价值提升要快得多。而下降的黑线显示出，在十年的增长之后，人民币兑美元汇率开始走弱。

Until now, casual watchers may not have noticed the dramatic climb the dollar has been on—and one the RMB has followed because of the peg. But the chart above, from Capital Economics, shows how the RMB, forced to rise lockstep with the skyrocketing U.S. dollar, has gotten much more expensive compared to its neighbors’ currencies.

That rising blue line starting in 2014 is the RMB getting much more expensive compared to the currencies of Asian neighbors and European partners. That declining black line is the RMB weakening against the U.S. dollar after ten years of gains.

另一张由ANZ提供的表格只关注了最近两年的情况，也表现出类似的趋势。

现在你慢慢能够理解，为什么期待已久的中国货币改革，在酝酿了至少十年后，最近终于开始成行——首先是在今年8月，央行放松了人民币与美元的绑定，人民币几天之内贬值了3%。到了12月，人民币几乎跟美元彻底脱钩。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

Another chart from ANZ shows the same trend, just focused on the last two years.

Now you can begin to understand why China’s long-expected currency reform, at least a decade in the making, has recently been taking shape—first in August, when it loosened the peg to the dollar and the yuan fell by 3% over a couple days, and now in December, when that dollar peg is all but over.