高盛看衰2016年美国股市

在近期发布的研究报告中，高盛公司顶级战略分析师们预测称，2016年的美国股市将再次令股民失望。据高盛预测，标普500指数将于2016年底收于2100点，相对于目前的2090点，可以说毫无起色。算上股利后，高盛预测2016年的美股回报率仅为3%，与今年1.5%的回报率同样令人难以亢奋。

高盛表示，2016年股市将遭受利率上涨、美元走强和公司盈利停滞等一连串问题的冲击。股价将成为明年的一个主要问题，而高盛公司称，如果用历史标准衡量，目前的美股价格已经很高了。

这家投行还指出，基于它对2016年年底各大公司盈利水平的预测值，明年美股的市盈率将刚刚超过16。由大卫•科斯汀领衔的高盛分析师团队写道：“过去40年里来，股票平均市盈率高于今天水平的时间只占6%。”

高盛还指出，在美联储首次加息后的6个月里，美股市盈率还将下跌10个百分点。高盛称，美联储的加息速度很可能会超出预期。

另一个问题是盈利停滞。高盛表示，在过去几年里，大多数企业的边际利润率都停止增长。不过，它们的总体利润还在继续上升，其中大部分是以苹果为首的科技板块推动的。但高盛也预测道，就连科技板块的边际利润率现在也很可能见顶了。

还是有一些好消息的：2016年美国企业的实际利润并不会那么糟。高盛称，标普500指数成分股的平均每股收益明年将增长10%左右，相比今年有较大反弹，只不过其中一部分增长必然是来自于股权回购，而非实际收益的增长。美国商务部上周二发布消息称，今年第三季度美国企业的利润率出现了经济危机以来最大的同比降幅，下跌幅度达到5%。而市盈率的下跌(10%)也将抵消股票从更高的公司盈利中获得的任何收益。

高盛指出，如果你想把运气押在某些个股身上，那么你最好赌一下那些利润最高的公司，它们受强势美元的影响不会很大。高盛推荐了几只明年可以入手的个股，其中包括亚马逊、墨西哥烧烤快餐店、全食公司和富国银行等。

要知道，高盛正在预测的是一个相当罕见的局面。投资者一般是不会垂头丧气太长时间的。上次股市连续两年令人失望的场景，出现在2001和2002年。从1928年至今，股市连续两年增幅低于5%的只有5次，其中大多数都是发生在经济危机前后，而高盛并没有预测称明年将出现经济危机。

另外，高盛的大多数预测已是众所周知的事实。而且，如果美联储的加息速度真的超过预期，那也可能是因为经济基本面的表现好于预期。（财富中文网）

译者：朴成奎

审校：任文科

In a research note out recently, Goldman Sachs’ top strategists predict that stocks will once again disappoint next year. Goldman predicts the S&P 500 will go nowhere in the coming year, ending 2016 at 2,100. The stock market index is already at 2,090. Include dividends and Goldman predicts that stocks will return just 3% in 2016. Stocks are up a measly 1.5% in 2015.

Goldman says the market will hit a headwind of rising interest rates, a strengthening dollar, and stalled profitability. One major concern is the price of stocks, which Goldman says are high by historic standards. Goldmansays the price-to-earnings ratio of the market will be just over 16, based on its prediction of where profits will be at the end of 2016. “Only 6% of the time during the last 40 years has the median stock traded at a p/e multiple higher than it does today,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, lead by David Kostin, in the research report.

What’s more, Goldman says p/e multiples tend to fall by 10% in the six months following a Fed’s first interest rate increase, which is widely believed to take place in December. Goldman says the Fed is likely to increase interest rates faster than expected.

Another problem: stalled profitability. Goldman says profit margins at most companies have been flat for the past few years. Yet overall margins have appeared to continue to rise, pushed up mostly by the technology sector, and Apple in particular. But Goldman predicts that even tech sector profit margins have probably peaked at this point.

One bit of good news: Actual profits won’t be that bad in 2016. Goldman says that earnings per share for the average S&P 500 company will rise by about 10% in 2016. That would be a rebound this year, though some of that growth is surely coming from share buybacks and not actual earnings improvements. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department said that corporate profits in the third quarter had the biggest 12-month drop since the recession, down nearly 5%. But the 10% drop in p/e multiples will wipe out any gain stocks would get from higher earnings.

Goldman says if you do want to bet on individuals stocks, it’s better to place your bets on companies that get most of their sales in the U.S. Those companies will not be hit as hard by a strong dollar. Among the stocks Goldman recommends for 2016 are Amazon, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Whole Foods, and Wells Fargo.

Bear in mind, Goldman is predicting a rather rare scenario. Investors don’t tend to stay down in the dumps for long. The last time stocks had two disappointing years in a row was in 2001 and 2002. And there have only been five times since 1928 in which the stock market increased by less than 5% a year for two years in a row. Most of those cases happened around a recession, which is not what Goldman is predicting for next year.

On top of that, most of the things Goldman is predicting are widely acknowledged. And if the Fed ends up raising rates faster than expected, that would probably be because the economy is doing better than expected.