7张图表说清奥巴马这些年的成与败

最近，美国总统奥巴马发表了任内最后一次国情咨文演讲。这是他最后一次面向全国民众发表演讲。通过这次机会，他大力表扬自己和他的政府。奥巴马留下的总统遗产正在逐渐成形，此时，他会讲述自己如何在任期内实现经济形势好转，为美国描绘一个比总统候选人一贯鼓吹的前景更加美好的未来。

当然，奥巴马有一些值得自夸的亮点。

亮点

奥巴马总统肯定会夸赞他在任期之内如何实现了失业率下降。美国的失业率在2009年10月激增至10%之后，至2015年10月已经下降至5%，达到七年来的最低水平。

President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address on Tuesday night is the last time he’ll have the full attention of the nation, and he’s expected to use the broadcast as an opportunity to give himself and his administration a sturdy pat on the back. As his presidential legacy starts to take shape, he tries to paint a much prettier picture of the nation than what’s circulating on the presidential campaign trail by chronicling the economic turnaround that occurred under his watch.

Certainly, there are some bright spots worthy of a humblebrag.

The Good

No doubt, President Obama will tout how the unemployment rate has declined during the his time in office. It reached a seven-year low of 5% in October 2015 after soaring as high as 10% in October 2009.

他也可能会讲述标普500指数的出色表现——标普500被普遍认为是最重要的股票市场指数。虽然标普500指数在2015年下半年开始走弱，今年开年也遭遇不利，但过去七年106%的涨幅，也意味着奥巴马可以笃定地说，他的政府在资本市场交出了令人满意的答卷。

And he might touch on the stellar performance of the S&P 500—often considered the most important stock market indicator. Sure, it faltered in the second half of 2015 and got off to a rough start this year, but its 106% rise over the last seven years means Obama can safely say that his administration has been good to the capital markets.

但除了这些好的数据之外，还有一些令人不太乐观的经济指标。

弊端

奥巴马政府的经济政策因为没有带来工资上涨而频遭批评。过去七年，美国平均小时工资仅上涨了7%。在竞选活动中，特别是共和党的总统候选人们一直认为，工资增长缓慢，导致中产阶级在经济衰退之后难以实现全面复苏。

But beyond those top-line figures, there are a few economic measures that aren’t so rosy.

The Bad

The Obama administration’s economic policies have received criticism for not sparking wage growth. Median hourly pay is up just 7% over the past seven years. On the campaign trail, especially among Republican president hopefuls, candidates have argued that slow wage growth has kept the middle class from achieving a full post-recession recovery.

一方面美国人的工资涨幅相对低迷，而另一方面，美国人的非住房债务却在增加，主要原因是日益增长的学生债务。在奥巴马上任后的第二年，学生债务便超过了信用卡债务总额。虽然奥巴马推出了多项贷款偿还政策，希望让大学生债务管理更加容易，但在如何降低高等教育成本这个问题上，他却毫无建树。

While wages have stayed relatively flat, Americans’ non-housing debt has increased, mainly because of surging student debt, which surpassed total credit card debt in Obama’s second year in office. The president has introduced several loan repayment policies to make college debt easier to manage, but he hasn’t figured out how to make higher education less expensive.

《今日美国》曾提出一种理论，认为学生债务正在威胁美国的住房自有率。《财富》杂志曾对这种理论泼过冷水，但由于其他许多原因，美国的住房自有率确实在下降。原因之一是美国人的收入不足以负担一套住房。而信贷市场一直呈现紧缩的态势。尚未从经济衰退中完全恢复元气的银行，一直心有余悸，只愿意向最符合资格的抵押贷款申请人提供贷款。通常情况下，拥有住房都被认为是好事，因为它可以创造财富，但考虑到上一次房地产泡沫破裂时的情形，住房自有率下降不见得是坏事。

USA Today once floated a theory that student debtis eating into homeownership. Fortune threw cold water on that rationale in July, but homeownership is on the decline for a whole host of other reasons. One of them is that Americans aren’t earning enough money to afford a home. And the credit market has remained tight. Banks, still recovering from the recession, have been hesitant to lend to anyone but the most qualified mortgage applicants. Homeownership is usually considered a good thing since it fosters wealth creation, but given what happened the last time the housing bubble burst, it’s easy to argue that sinking homeownership isn’t necessarily a negative.

而下面这些经济统计数据，奥巴马在演讲中绝不会提及。

丑陋的一面

奥巴马任总统期间的失业率下降是好消息，这意味着美国人重新回到了工作岗位，但大量美国人退出了劳动力队伍，也为这项政绩的取得提供了巨大的帮助。直线下降的劳动参与率，很大程度上要归因于婴儿潮一代的退休，以及美国的失业人口在丧失信心之后放弃了求职。这也是2016年共和党总统候选人在抨击奥巴马政府时，最喜欢的话题。上周，目前领先的共和党候选人唐纳德•特朗普在NBC的《与媒体见面》节目上表示“现在还有六千万、七千万、八千万的美国人想要工作却找不到工作，”他暗指的便是那些尚处在工作年龄但却不在劳动力队伍的美国人。

Then there are a few economic statistics that are down-right off-limits for Obama.

The Ugly

While the declining unemployment rate during the Obama presidency tells a positive story about Americans getting back to work, it’s also received a major assist from the large number of Americans who have dropped out of the workforce altogether. The plummeting labor participation rate is attributable—in part—to the retirement of baby boomers and to out-of-work Americans who are discouraged enough to give up the job hunt. This too is a favorite criticism of the Obama administration by 2016 Republican hopefuls. On Sunday, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” that there are “60, 70, 80 million people out there that want to work that aren’t getting jobs,” alluding to Americans who are of working age but aren’t in the labor force.

虽然在2008年，奥巴马在民粹主义思潮的推动下入主白宫，但这次，他应该会对不公平问题避而不谈，因为自2009年至2014年，超级富豪们的实际收入出现了大幅增长，但底层99%的民众的收入水平却未有变化。（财富中文网）

译者：刘进龙/汪皓

And despite the populist wave that propelled Obama to the White House in 2008, the president should steer clear of the inequality discussion on Tuesday night, since from 2009 through 2014, the über rich have experienced impressive real income growth, while the bottom 99% has seen almost none.