市场恐慌是因为没读懂中国经济新常态

随着美股再次暴跌，全世界似乎都认为中国经济将不可避免地陷入低迷。这已经不是中国经济第一次被看衰了。2015年夏天，沪市股指一度出现了断崖式下跌，随后人民币相对美元出现了4%的贬值，使一些原本清醒的分析师也陷入了恐慌。当时有不少分析师都给出了极为悲观的预测，认为中国经济或将面临灾难性衰退。眼下刚一进入2016年，“中国崩溃论”便再次尘嚣直上，引发了更大的恐慌和市场骚动。然而从总体上来看，这些分析师和投资人乃至广大媒体的态度还是过于悲观了。

中国经济目前远非处于衰退状态，而是正在经历向“新常态”调整的阵痛。2002到2008年间，中国年均经济增长率达到了惊人的12%。2008到2014年，过热的经济增长率有所下降，回落到每年8%至9%之间。目前中国经济的年增长率大概在6%至7%之间。经济降速表明庞大的中国经济已经迈过了“创业”阶段，开始走向成熟。这种新环境当然会让投资人感到紧张，但它并不等于中国经济的末日。随着各国经济的发展以及经济体量的增大，年增长率的减缓是不可避免的——但它仍然是在增长。比如美国GDP的年增长率大约在2.2%左右，英国的GDP年增率约为1.7%。

和其他现代化的大型经济体一样，中国经济不可避免地朝着稳定的“新常态”进行调整。这一点再显然不过，但这仍然没有减缓去年夏天的股灾和当下的恐慌。2015年8月26日的最低点标志着沪指下跌了超过30%，投资者损失的资金高达4到5万亿美元。这么大的损失显然是由于对中国经济的走向过于悲观所致。目前摆在我们面前的真正的问题是，股市的暴跌究竟是由于中国经济健康状况下滑导致的，还是仅仅是由于投资者没有准确地解读中国当前的经济调整步伐。

现在，全世界都在担心是否有可能发生比2015年8月更惨烈的股灾。虽然投资者们哀鸿遍野，但我们还是有必要进行进一步的研究。2015年股灾发生的原因之一，是沪市在此之前的惊人扩张。2015年6月，沪市股指已经膨胀至两年前的2.5倍，日均交易额更是翻了四番。在某种程度上，可以说政府欢迎甚至鼓励股市的快速扩张。这不仅仅是由于股市可以带来新鲜资本的流入，还因为它有助于抵消出口暂时下滑的不利影响。随着资本市场的自由度有所提高，以及一系列复杂的新投资工具的引入，普通中国老百姓以及外国投资者也纷纷挤进了中国股市这条大船。由于政府的干预，许多投资者都抱有错误的见解，以为股市会无限地继续扩张。也正因为如此，这种扩张必定是不可持续的。所以现在是对股市做出调整，以适应经济的缓慢稳定增长的时候了。

为中国经济带来另一层负面因素的是货币改革。人民币近期的贬值幅度其实不很大，不过却由于相对缺乏透明度而遭到了严重非议。中国政府历来喜欢关上门进行重大决策，好向外界展示“一致通过”的决定。因此，外界很难知道人民币的贬值会走多远。不过到目前为止，贬值的幅度并不算大。2014年到2015年间，欧元相对美元的贬值幅度要远远大于人民币。再看看去年的几大货币，多国政府也都有所动作，对货币政策非常公开的也不多。实际上，为了不损害本国经济，包括中国在内的所有国家都在对货币进行干预。

另外，在评价中国经济的健康程度时，还有必要把近期的市场波动因素考虑进去。很多投资者和观察人士都忽略了一点，那就是沪市的市值与整个中国经济的体量相比还是很小的。中国目前只有5%到10%的资本是通过发行证券的手段筹集的，而且目前在股市上自由流通的股份只占了GDP的25%到35%。而在大多数发达国家，这个比例都高达85%至100%，在美国更是达到了150%。因此从目前看，股市对中国的广域经济并不会产生太大的实际影响。

另外，中国投资者的构成严重依赖散户。此外还有批评人士指出，中国仍然严重依赖国有产业，腐败问题依然频发，并且政府仍然有在重要时刻出手干预的习惯。然而事实上，中国正在从高度社会主义化的经济向自由市场经济转型，而自由市场所特有的波动性和风险当然也会一个不落的出现。在2001年时，国有企业约占中国GDP的30%，而现在这个比例已经下降到GDP的25%。不过即便如此，国有企业仍然占据了6000万个工作岗位。

中国经济仍然在以相对较快的速度发展，但它也要循序渐进地推进。中国的商业转型正在进行当中，而目前经济格局的转型也有助于中国稳定地转变成一个现代化经济体。对于投资者来说，关键是要逐个行业去看中国经济的发展。尽管市场面临波动，但是目前针对中国总体经济健康状况的悲观情绪，特别是投资者的悲观情绪，还是过于夸大了。任何一个国家长期保持两位数的经济增长都是不正常的。对于中国这个全球第二大经济体（如以购买力平价计算，则是全球第一大经济体）来说，5%到7%的经济增长率仍然是可圈可点的。因此，中国和全世界都需要重新适应这种“新常态”。(财富中文网)

本文作者Winter Nie是瑞士洛桑管理学院的教授。

译者：朴成奎

The world seems to be waiting for doom and gloom in China, as U.S. stocks took another pounding Wednesday. And this isn’t the first time. When the Shanghai stock exchange index went into a precipitous dive last summer, followed by a 4% devaluation of the renminbi relative to the U.S.dollar, more than a few normally sober analysts began to panic. The result was a number of dire predictions that China’s economy might be facing a potentially catastrophic decline. And here we go again, leading 2016 with more cries of panic and market turmoil. Yet, the general stance that analysts, investors and even the media has taken, is overall much too pessimistic.

Far from experiencing a decline, China’s economy is trying to adjust to what amounts to “a new normal” with varying degrees of pain. From 2002 through 2008, annual growth averaged an astounding 12%. That overheated growth rate slowed to between 8% and 9% a year from 2008 through 2014, and it is currently averaging between 6% and 7%. The slower growth rate is a sign that China’s enormous economy has passed the startup stage and is beginning to mature. While this is certainly a new environment for investors to wrap their hands around, it doesn’t equate to economic Armageddon. As economies develop and become more massive in size, annual growth inevitably slows – but it still grows. The annual growth in GDP in the U.S. is around 2.2% and in the U.K., it is 1.7%.

Although the inevitability of China adjusting to a sustainable normalcy like in other large modern economies should be obvious, it does not diminish the impact of last summer’s crash or today’s panic. At its low point on August 26, the Shanghai index had dropped by more than 30% and investors had lost anywhere from $4 trillion to $5 trillion. This loss obviously contributed to painting a dismal picture for the future of China. The real question, however, is whether the dizzying drop was due to a decline in China’s economic health, or whether investors had simply failed to accurately interpret China’s current economic evolution.

Today, the world is trembling over a similar shock with levels even moving slightly lower than last August. Although investors may precipitately cry doom, it’s worth further exploring. A contributing factor to these large drops has been the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s stunning expansion. In June 2015, the index swelled 2.5 times its previous size of less than two years prior. The daily trading turnover quadrupled in the same time period. To a certain extent, the government welcomed and even encouraged the rapid expansion. Not only did it result in an influx of fresh capital, but it also helped offset a brief decline in exports. A more liberalized approach and the introduction of a flood of complex new investment vehicles encouraged ordinary Chinese citizens, as well as foreign investors, to climb on the bandwagon. Many investors had the mistaken notion that the market would continue expanding indefinitely thanks to strategic interventions by Beijing. At a certain point that approach was bound to become unsustainable, and it’s time to adjust to the reality of growth that is slow and steady.

What also seemed to add to the negativity around China’s economy was currency reform. China’s devaluation wasn’t substantial, but was heavily critiqued because of the relative lack of transparency. China traditionally likes to make its critical policy decisions behind closed doors in order to present a unanimous decision to the outside world. In this case, it was hard for anyone to know how far the devaluation would finally go. In the end, it did not go very far. In 2014 and 2015, the euro’s loss in comparison to the U.S. dollar was far more dramatic than the renminbi. Looking at several currencies in the past year, many governments have taken initiatives and few have been very open it. The bigger takeaway is that all countries including China have interfered in aims to help, not hurt their economies.

Also, when judging the economic health of China, recent market fluctuations need to be taken into perspective. What many investors and observers miss in their analysis, is the fact that the Shanghai stock market is still relatively small when compared to China’s economy as a whole. Only 5% to 10% of China’s capital is raised through equity issues, and the total free float of available shares on the market only accounts for 25% to 35% of GDP. In most developed countries that ratio is around 85% to 100%. In the U.S., it is 150%. So for now, stocks in China have a much less drastic effect on the real side of the larger economy.

The investor makeup has been too heavily focused on retail. Although skeptics point to the still heavy reliance on state-owned industries, continuing problems with corruption and a tendency to intervene at critical moments, the fact is that China is making steady progress from a heavily socialized economy to a free market with all the volatility and risks that that entails. Back in 2001, state-owned enterprises accounted for roughly 30% of China’s GDP. Today, the figure has declined to 25% of GDP. That said, state–owned enterprises still account for 60 million jobs.

China is evolving relatively quickly, but it needs to do so at a measured pace. Business transformation is under way and the landscape is changing in a way that also contributes to China stabilizing as a modern economy. The key for investors is to look at China’s business development on a sector by sector basis. The bottom line is that while markets have fluctuated, pessimism, especially by investors is exaggerated in regards to China’s overall economic health. It is abnormal for any country to sustain double–digit growth for a long period of time. Five to seven percent growth for the second largest economy (the first in Purchasing Power Parity) is still commendable. Both China and the world need to readjust to this new normal.

Winter Nie is a professor at IMD business school in Switzerland.