穆迪质疑中国经济：靠举债保增长

近日，质疑世界第二大经济体中国的队伍又新增一员。国际权威信用评级机构穆迪指出，由于债务水平持续上升，中国经济即将达到7%的增长目标。

穆迪评价称：“2016年，中国政府会为追求经济增长目标而持续给予支持政策，推迟去杠杆和消除过剩产能。如此拖延将对中国信用产生负面影响。”

近来各方一讨论到中国经济，必然会提到债务，部分原因是中国2008-2009年的大规模财政刺激已结束，信贷规模却呈逐季度上升之势。

以下是2002年以来中国信贷总规模图表，看上去就像一条崎岖的路，从2009年起就如同坐上过山车不断攀升，至今升势未止。

China’s economy is meeting its 7% economic growth target thanks to rising debt, credit rating agency Moody’s said Wednesday as it joined the chorus of skeptics about the world’s second-largest economy.

“Policy support in the pursuit of growth targets is likely to persist in 2016, postponing deleveraging and the eradication of excess capacity,” Moody’s said. “Such a delay would be credit negative.”

Conversation about China’s economy has shifted towards debt recently, in part because the country’s massive 2008-09 fiscal stimulus is over, and yet overall credit keeps rising quarter after quarter.

A chart of overall credit since 2002 looks like a bumpy road, followed by a roller coaster rising without end starting in 2009.

中国的经济前景复杂难解，长期来看最确切的一点是：系统内部浪费性债务过多，如今这些债务用于支持国有企业和房地产项目，如若不然，国企和房市都会走受挫。

研究机构龙洲经讯的分析师潘启思2015年在报告中写道：“中国的债务问题与资本密集型工业模式密不可分，就像之前的日本、韩国和台湾一样，中国终将陷入债务泥潭。”

就连质疑者都指出，如果中国经济实现再平衡，并向消费驱动型转变，同时降低增长率，制止信贷增长，中国是可以避免经济崩溃的。可中国还是铁了心地将经济增长目标制定得很高，增长不力就靠提升负债来填。

穆迪认为：“信贷总量（官方称之为社会融资总量，简称TSF）的增速继续超过比名义GDP增速，甚至还有加速迹象，导致杠杆持续攀升。”TSF是中国政府制定的衡量指标，用以衡量私营企业等非国有实体的贷款，不包括中央和地方政府借款。

TSF上升显示信贷总规模增长速度远超GDP，这意味着中国还未解决债务问题。北京大学金融学教授迈克尔•佩蒂斯等研究中国的经济学家认为，TSF不是什么神奇的数据，达到一定程度就说明债务占GDP的比重太大。但不少人认为，以目前的速度发展，中国债务总有一天会达到警戒线。债务恶化的问题拖得越久，未来的破坏可能就越大。（财富中文网）

译者：Pessy

校对：夏林

China’s economic outlook is dizzying and complicated. But the clearest long-term point is this: there is too much wasteful debt in the system and now it is being used to prop up state-owned businesses and real estate projects that should otherwise falter.

“Like, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan before it, China was always going to end up with a debt problem, which is hard-wired into its capital-intensive model of industrialization,” Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Joyce Poon wrote last year.

Even skeptics point out China can avoid a crash by rebalancing its economy toward consumption, bringing down the growth rate, and halting credit growth. But for now, the government is stubbornly keeping the economic growth rate high, and using debt to meet it.

“Overall credit growth (described officially as Total Social Financing) continues to grow faster than nominal GDP, and has even accelerated, leading to rising leverage,” Moody’s says. TSF is a metric invented by Beijing that captures lending to non-state entities like private companies and people, but excludes central and local government borrowing.

Its rise captures the point that overall credit is growing much faster than GDP, which means China isn’t yet fixing its debt problem. Economists studying China including Peking University professor Michael Pettis say there is no magic number at which debt is too large a percentage of GDP. But many believe China, on its current trajectory, will hit it. And the longer it lets the problem of excess debt fester, the more dramatic the fallout may be.