不要误读巴菲特对IBM的投资怨言

按照巴菲特的投资逻辑，伯克希尔持有的IBM股份表现良好。

沃伦•巴菲特周一接受CNBC采访时说，当初决定让伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司买进IBM股票可能是个错误。但这并不是他的真实想法。

大手笔投资蓝色巨人IBM让巴菲特饱受同行以及评论人士的批评。尽管如此，巴菲特在2015年仍增持了IBM。他还在周一表示，从未卖出IBM的股份。伯克希尔上周公布了年报，其中一份监管文件称，并不打算出售IBM的股票。年报称：“我们认为，IBM普通股的合理价值将出现反弹，最终股价会高过持股成本。”

巴菲特表示，买股票花了多少钱“并不重要”，市场短期内总是会上下波动的。他认为IBM股票的内在价值远高于目前的股价，重要的是这只股票10年后的价格。按照这样的说法，得等到这位大佬95岁时才能评价投资IBM到底赚了还是亏了。

巴菲特希望观察者，尤其是投资者不要急于下结论，除了简单地看当前股价，还有一种方法可以衡量投资的价值。更妙的是，这种方法还源于巴菲特提出的思路。

巴菲特投入IBM的资金为130亿美元多点，持股比例略高于8%。巴菲特说，做股市投资时都是从公司所有者的角度看待。因此，他认为自己，或者更确切地说，是伯克希尔的股东都应该拥有IBM 8%的利润，尽管他无权去要这笔钱。

2015年，IBM的利润为132亿美元，按照巴菲特的理论，其中约11亿美元属于伯克希尔。也就是说，巴菲特对IBM投资的整体回报率为8%。考虑到眼下的利率和股市估值水平，回报率已经不算差了。

如果从长期角度考察伯克希尔对IBM的投资，情况甚至更好。2011年是巴菲特以及伯克希尔成为IBM股东的第一个完整年份，当年IBM的利润为159亿美元。当时，巴菲特向IBM投入的资金接近109亿美元，持股比例为5.5%，相应的利润份额为8.75亿美元，伯克希尔由此获得了8%的回报率。

2012年，伯克希尔出资8.30亿美元增持了IBM股份，持股比例上升了0.5个百分点。IBM当年实现利润166亿美元，按照巴菲特的逻辑，伯克希尔获得的利润增加了8300万美元。再算下去就是，2012年IBM给伯克希尔带来了10%的回报率。自此，IBM股份给伯克希尔带来的回报不断上升。2015年，巴菲特斥资6.34亿美元增持IBM，按比例来算应得的IBM利润上升了7900万美元，相应的回报率为12%。

当然，如果IBM的股价不断下跌，谈利润就没意义了。2011年以来，巴菲特的IBM投资实际上缩水了260万美元。他持有的IBM股份带来了7.25亿美元的利润，低于五年前的8.30亿美元。此外，外界普遍担心IBM在云技术和人工智能领域投入大量资金后，产生的收入填不上庞大的计算机服务业务收入锐减后的窟窿。

也就是说，巴菲特投资IBM最终还是有可能赚不到钱。不过只要巴菲特能以越来越小的代价“换取”越来越大的IBM利润份额，就很难说这是笔失败的投资。（财富中文网）

译者：Charlie

审校：夏林

Based on Buffett’s investing logic, Berkshire’s IBM stake is doing well.

Warren Buffett said on Monday in an interview on CNBC that it’s possible he erred when he bought shares of IBM for his insurance and investment conglomerate. But he doesn’t think so.

Buffett has taken a lot of heat from fellow investors and commentators over his big bet on Big Blue. Nonetheless, Buffett added to Berkshire’s position in IBM IBM -0.76% last year, and said on Monday that he hasn’t sold a share of the stock. In Berkshire’s annual report, which was released on Saturday, Berkshire states in its regulatory filing that it has no plans of disposing of the stock. “We expect that the fair value of our investment in IBM common stock will recover and ultimately exceed our cost,” the report said.

Buffett said on Monday that what he pays for a stock “doesn’t matter.” The market goes up and down in the short-term. But Buffett says the intrinsic value of IBM’s shares is much higher than where the stock is trading now. What matters, Buffett said, is what the stock will be trading for 10 years from now. So, by that math, you won’t be able to evaluate Buffett’s IBM investment until the Oracle turns 95.

But while Buffett wants observers, and most likely his investors, to reserve judgement, there is a way to evaluate the investment aside from merely looking at the current stock price. And, even better, that alternative takes a page from Buffett’s own play book.

Buffett has paid just over $13 billion for his stake in IBM, which accounts for just over 8% of the tech giant. Buffett says he thinks of stock market investments as if he were an owner of the company. Therefore, Buffett considers himself (or, more accurately, Berkshire shareholders) entitled to 8% of IBM’s earnings, even though he can’t actually ask for the money. IBM earned $13.2 billion last year. Berkshire’s share of that would be roughly $1.1 billion. That would constitute an 8% return on Buffett’s overall investment. Not bad, considering where interest rates are these days and the valuations of the stock market.

The picture looks even better if you examine Berkshire’s IBM investment over time. Back in 2011, the first full year Buffett and Berkshire were IBM shareholders, the company had a profit of $15.9 billion. At the time, Buffett had invested nearly $10.9 billion in IBM, giving Berkshire a 5.5% stake in the company, which would translate to $875 million in earnings, giving Berkshire a return of 8%.

In 2012, Berkshire purchased another $830 million worth of IBM shares, giving it 0.5% more ownership of the company. That year, IBM earned $16.6 billion. So, according to Buffett’s logic, that would entitle Berkshire to an additional $83 million in earnings. Based on this line of thinking, Berkshire’s investment in IBM had a return of 10% that year. Berkshire’s ownership returns for IBM have gone up from there. Last year, Buffett increased Berkshire’s stake in IBM by $634 million, and its share of IBM’s earnings rose by $79 million, yielding a return of 12%.

Of course, none of this matters if IBM’s shares keep falling. Buffett’s actual investment in IBM has fallen in value by $2.6 million since 2011. His original stake in IBM generated $725 million in earnings, down from $830 million five years ago. And the tech company is plagued by fears that its huge investment in the cloud and artificial intelligence won’t replace the revenue it is losing in its huge computer services business.