新一轮经济衰退可能持续更长时间

美国股市在本周二表现出色，标准普尔500指数上涨了2.39%，但这并未打消华尔街对一场若隐若现的衰退的恐惧情绪。

尽管大部分经济学家认为衰退不会在今年到来，但做出这种预测的经济学家正在增加。如果真的出现衰退，分析家担心它会成为史上持续最久的一次。汇丰证券首席美国经济学家凯文•洛根周二对彭博新闻社表示：“如果发生衰退，严重性恐怕不及1990年和2001年那两次，但长度恐怕更甚，因为利率不再能像以往一样大幅降低了。”

原因在于，与过去不同，美联储不再拥有降低利率的空间。经济学家大卫•贝克沃思最近在《金融时报》撰文解释称：

这个问题的真正原因在于美联储坚持低通胀策略。就像卡车司机会控制速度一样，采用低通胀的策略可以防止经济增速过快。一般来说，这是好事，但有时也可能适得其反。卡车司机有时也需要加速来弥补堵车浪费的时间。与之类似，经济有时也需要加速，才能在一场衰退后发挥全部潜力。如果一直限制速度，就不可能实现这一点。

贝克沃思认为，美联储应当抛弃通胀目标，设立一个名义增长目标，这样就能在低增长阶段（正如我们正在经历的这段时期）容忍较高的通胀率，后者将被高增长阶段较低的通胀率所弥补。

并不是所有人都认同这种设立增长目标就能解决全部问题的论点。前财政部长拉里•萨默斯就没有全盘支持贝克沃思的观点，而是强调如今的低通胀环境给世界各国的政府都发出了信号，他们应该加大投入，刺激当前疲软的需求。（财富中文网）

译者：严匡正

审校：任文科

U.S. stock markets had a Super Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.39%, but the latest moves haven’t quieted Wall Street fears of a coming recession.

Though most economists don’t see a recession coming this year, the number that do are on the rise. If and when it does come, analysts are starting to worry that the recession will be longer than most. “If a recession were to occur, it might be shallow but somewhat more extended than the 1990 and 2001 episodes since interest rates can’t be lowered as much,” said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist for HSBC Securities, to Bloomberg News on Tuesday.

The reason? The Federal Reserve doesn’t have nearly the room it is used to having, in terms of the ability to lower interest rates, as it usually does. Economist David Beckworth recently explained the problem in an essay for the Financial Times:

The real reason for this [problem] is the Fed’s firm commitment to low inflation. Like a governor placed on a truck’s engine to control its speed, a commitment to low inflation helps prevent the economy from growing too fast. Normally, this is a good thing. But sometimes it can backfire. A truck driver may need to temporarily go faster to make up for lost time after being stuck in traffic. Similarly, an economy may need to temporarily speed up to get back to its full potential after a recession. Neither can happen with a rigid adherence to the speed limit.

Beckworth argues that the Fed should abandon its inflation target for a nominal growth target instead. This would allow the Fed to tolerate higher inflation during periods of low growth (as we are experiencing now), to be made up for with periods of lower inflation when growth is strong.

Not everyone buys Beckworth’s argument that nominal growth targeting will be a cure-all. Former Treasury secretary Larry Summers, for instance, has given a half-endorsement to the idea, but has been much more forceful in his argument that today’s low inflation environment is a signal that governments around the world should be spending more to prop up weak demand.