受惊的投资者到底想要中国经济怎么样？

最近，中国人民银行宣布，从3月1日起将存款准备金率下调0.5个百分点，大型中资银行的存准率随之降到17%。这是一年来央行第五次下调存准率。

几天之后，中国全国人大会议开幕。这是决策层展现2016年政策意向的主要窗口。

今年的人大会议特别重要，原因是2016年是十三五规划的开局之年，而此项规划正是中国2020年之前的社会、政治和经济发展蓝图。同时，这也是中国国家主席习近平在明年中共十九大前对主要领导岗位进行调整的重要时段。在这种情况下，决策者面临的困难在于如何应对不断放缓的中国经济。

这本周，中国领导人将在全国人大会议上彰显自己的信心。今年政府工作报告提出的经济增长预期目标为6.5%-7%，这虽然标志着中国经济增速的逐步下降，但这样的发展速度仍会让世界上大多数国家羡慕不已，特别是在2016年。

为实现这个目标，中国政府打算双管齐下，一是财政支出，二是下调利率带来的低成本贷款。降准就是第二种方法的具体体现。此举和央行行长周小川此前传递出的信息一致，那就是中国仍有充分的“货币政策余地”来支持经济并避免下行风险。这次的政府工作报告将财政赤字占GDP的比例从上年的2.3%提高到了3%。这个数字不像一些市场人士期望的那么高，但确实反映了政府通过扩大赤字来促进经济的意愿。

但这些保障措施很难让投资者放宽心。中国政府在财政和货币政策方面确实仍有能量继续促进增长。但市场要的并不是这个，或者说，不光是经济增长。相反，市场希望看到的是更健康的经济发展模式。它希望看到政府就此释放出清晰的信号，从而表明政府正在恰当地把资源用于解决中国的高额负债问题（估计占GDP的240%），并推动经济从重工业向服务和消费转型。

投资者将透过政府的经济总体目标看实质。降准之后，银行有了更多可用资金，中国政府则正在鼓励前者将这些新增资金从日渐式微的重工业转向附加值更高的行业。通过扩大养老和医疗保险覆盖面、以及相关的产业政策，政府用于支持消费、创新和环保的财政支出同样出现了迅猛增长。

这方面已经有了实质性进展。举例来说，中国财政部最近公布的数据显示，2015年政府的社保和福利总支出比2014年增长了17%。在主要城市出现严重空气污染的情况下，政府在节能环保等关键领域的支出也同比上升了26%。

中国政府面临的关键挑战在于，如何防止银行将新增可贷资金投入到那些濒临倒闭的企业和陷入停滞的项目中去。因为这只会增加系统坏账，从而导致中国未来的调整更加艰难。全国人大会议将彰显出政府的抱负，市场则会紧盯实际信号，以判断政府是否会在今年采取后续行动。

尼古拉斯•康索纳利是欧亚集团亚洲部主任。

译者：Charlie

校对：詹妮

Recently, Beijing cut banks’ cushion money, calling for a 50 basis point reduction to reserve requirement ratios (RRRs). That’s down to 17%, the fifth such cut over the past year.

The move comes just days ahead of the National People’s Congress (NPC), which kicked off over the weekend. The event, Beijing’s annual legislative session, is a major opportunity for China’s leadership to showcase its policy intentions for 2016.

This year’s NPC is especially significant: It is both the year for the unveiling of China’s large-scale plan designed to guide the country’s social, political and economic development through the second half of this decade — the 13th Five Year plan (13FYP). It is also the second-to-last major opportunity for China’s President Xi Jinping to place allies in key government posts ahead of an upcoming transition in the Communist Party next year. The difficulty facing Xi, in the backdrop of the political calendar, is the slowing Chinese economy.

China’s leaders will put on an outward show of confidence at the NPC thesetwo weeks. In its work report for the year, the government said the economy would grow in the 6.5% to 7% range this year — a number that would mark a gradual slowdown for China, but a rate enviable in most of the rest of the world. Particularly in 2016.

The leadership intends to use both government spending and cheaper lending through lower interest rates to get there, as the reserve ratio cut this week indicates. The cut was consistent with a message delivered by People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan last week — that China still has plenty of “monetary policy space” to support the economy and avoid downside risks. The government also set a wider deficit target in its work report – at 3% of GDP, up from 2.3% last year. This number isn’t as high as some in the markets hoped — but does suggest willingness to use deficit spending to boost the economy.

But investors will find little solace in these assurances. Beijing does still have fiscal and monetary firepower to drive growth. But the market is not looking for growth. Or not for growth alone. Instead, it is looking for healthier growth – which would come via clear signs that the Chinese government is channeling its resources appropriately to tackle China’s massive debt burden (estimated at 240% of GDP) and facilitate an adjustment from heavy industry into services and consumption.

Investors would do well to scratch beneath the surface of the headline targets. Beijing is encouraging banks, which now have more capital to lend since the reserve requirement cut, to channel new credit away from dying heavy manufacturing industries and into higher-value added sectors. The government is also sharply increasing fiscal spending to support consumption (by bolstering pensions and healthcare access), innovation (through industrial policy), and environmental protection.

Real progress is already being made: according to recent numbers from China’s finance ministry, the government’s overall expenditure on social security and welfare increased by 17% in 2015 from 2014, for example. And on energy saving and environmental protection—crucial issues for the Chinese leadership today in the face of disastrous air pollution in major cities—government spending increased by 26% last year.

The key challenge for Beijing is to prevent banks from channeling their newfound firepower into failing companies and stagnant projects. That would only extend the level of bad debt in the system, setting China up for an even more painful adjustment down the line. While the NPC will showcase the government’s aspirations, markets will be looking for real signs of follow-through this year.

Nicholas Consonery is director of Asia at Eurasia Group.