4位末日预言者眼中的经济现状
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良药苦口、忠言逆耳。明智的领导者会听取不同的意见。跟往常一样，只要去找，现在就能发现这样的声音和新闻。 在2006和2007年的美好时光里，基金经理杰里米•格兰瑟姆、纽约大学教授鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼（人称“末日博士”）和耶鲁大学教授罗伯特•希勒的警告几乎没人愿意去听，但他们都正确预见了随后的萧条。他们那些不受欢迎的观点之所以值得一听，是因为这么多年来的情况已经证明，三人对经济和市场都有敏锐的判断。 以下四种观点也是这样，无论喜欢与否，我们都应该听听这些专家的话： |
Wise leaders seek out voices they don’t agree with and news they don’t like. Right now, as always, such voices and news are out there if we look. When the good times were rolling in 2006 and 2007, few people wanted to hear the warnings of fund manager Jeremy Grantham or New York University professor Nouriel Roubini (known then as Dr. Doom) or Yale professor Robert Shiller. But they were right about the coming bust, and their unpopular views deserved a hearing because all three had proven themselves over many years to be sharp judges of economies and markets. Here are four such voices now, responsible experts whose views we should hear, like them or not: |
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吉姆•罗杰斯 吉姆•罗杰斯预测今后12个月美国陷入衰退的可能性是100%。 罗杰斯最出名的莫过于20年前预言了大宗商品和新兴市场的繁荣并加以炒作。他也一直是乔治•索罗斯的合作伙伴。 罗杰斯认为美国经济正在掉链子。他指出，本轮经济增长已经延续近七年，虽然低增长态势依然相当稳定，但工资税缴税额也一直没变。罗杰斯还表示，中国、日本和欧洲经济不是低迷就是放缓，这加重了下行压力。大家觉得目前美元已经很强了？而罗杰斯还在做多美元，因为他预计全球各个市场出现滑坡时资金将流向安全的资产。 |
Jim Rogers -Jim Rogers says the probability of a U.S. recession in the coming 12 months is 100%. He’s best known for calling – and betting on – the booms in commodities and emerging markets 20 years ago; he has also been a partner of George Soros. Now he argues that the wheels are coming off the U.S. economy – he cites flat payroll tax numbers – despite its fairly steady but slow growth, as the current expansion nears seven years in length. Weak or slowing economies in China, Japan, and Europe increase the downward pressure, he told Bloomberg. You think the dollar is strong now? He’s long dollars because he foresees a flight to safety as markets weaken globally. |
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比尔•格罗斯 “债券之王”比尔•格罗斯也持类似的悲观态度，只是原因不同。格罗斯在最新的展望信函中指出，问题在于各家央行实施的负利率政策，这种为刺激经济而不惜代价的做法实在过火。 虽然低利率一般都可以通过财富效应提升资产价值和经济活力，但格罗斯认为，负利率政策弊大于利。它对银行的商业模式产生了极为不利的影响，给养老基金带来了威胁，而且有损于“所有储蓄者，有损于世界上所有为了高等教育、退休和医疗而存钱的家庭。” 从格罗斯的预期中似乎看不到希望：“央行的降息意愿似乎超过以往，在我看来，他们并未注意到此举对典型经济模式的损害，而后者一直是经济繁荣的动力所在。这种情况会一直延续到央行走进‘负利率’死胡同，再也无法驱动经济前行。” |
Bill Gross -Similarly bearish for other reasons is Bond King Bill Gross. The problem, he says in his latest outlook letter, is that central bankers’ desperate attempts to stimulate their economies have gone too far by imposing negative interest rates. While low rates generally pump up asset values and energize economic activity through the wealth effect, he argues that negative rates do more damage than good. They clobber banks’ business models, endanger pension funds, and harm “all savers; households worldwide that saved/invested money for college, retirement or for medical bills.” He doesn’t offer hope: “Central bankers seem ever intent on going lower, ignorant in my view of the harm being done to a classical economic model that has driven prosperity – until it reached a negative interest rate dead end and could drive no more.” |
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维克拉姆•曼沙拉马尼 耶鲁大学教授维克拉姆•曼沙拉马尼有着深刻见解。他认为“各个领域的泡沫都在破裂”，而且这种趋势尚未接近尾声。 曼沙拉马尼有一部出色的作品，名为《盛衰学》，他一直在关注这方面的情况。在阿布扎比出席全球金融市场论坛之际，曼沙拉马尼对CNBC表示，他发现“泡沫正在破裂，我得说，澳大利亚房地产市场的泡沫就要破了，南非则是整个经济，加拿大是房地产加经济，还有巴西。我们可以一直这样罗列下去。” 吹大这些泡沫的是超宽松货币政策，让格罗斯感到不安的也是这些政策，经济泡沫的破裂则加剧了全球性通缩。就经济增长而言，这种情况绝非好事。 |
Vikram Mansharamani -Yale’s insightful Vikram Mansharamani sees “bubbles bursting everywhere” and does not see the trend stopping. The author of an excellent book called Boombustology, he keeps an eye on these things. At the Global Financial Markets Forum in Abu Dhabi, he told CNBC he sees “a bubble bursting, I would argue, in Australian housing markets — that is beginning to crack; South Africa — the whole economy; Canada — housing and the economy; Brazil. We can keep going on and on.” The bubbles were inflated by the super-easy monetary policies that trouble Gross, and the bubbles’ bursting is contributing to deflation worldwide. Not a promising scenario for economic growth. |
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马克•赫伯特 股市专家马克•赫伯特在3月8日发表的评论中提醒人们，3月7日是本轮牛市七周年“纪念日”。他的观点很简单：“今后七年股市的回报水平绝不会像过去七年那么高。” 赫伯特的看法更冷静一些。他认为，就算美国股市的增速能超过经济增速，它也会遇到困难。公司利润已经达到不寻常的高点，股票估值远高于平均水平，二者都不太可能继续大幅增长。 不得不说，你很难对他的观点提出异议。 我觉得类似这样的观察者都是负责任的现实主义者。我们没办法确定他们有多么正确，或者有多少谬误，但经验表明，我们最好考虑一下如果他们是对的，我们该怎么办。（财富中文网） 译者：Charlie 校对：詹妮 |
Mark Hulbert -Stock market maven Mark Hulbert reminded us in a commentary on Tuesday that Monday marked the seventh anniversary of the current bull market’s start. His simple point: “There’s no way the stock market over the next seven years will produce a return anywhere as good as the last seven.” His more sobering point is that U.S. stocks will have a hard time even outpacing the growth of the economy. Corporate profits are already unusually high, and multiples are well above average; neither measure is likely to increase much further. His argument is hard to refute. I think of these four observers and others like them as responsible realists. We can’t know how right or wrong they are, but experience says we had better think about what we’ll do if they’re right. |
